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By NASA
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Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
Coastal locations, such as Drakes Bay on the Point Reyes peninsula in Northern California, are increasingly vulnerable to sea level rise.NOAA/NMFS/WCR/CCO The information will help people who live in coastal areas prepare for impacts caused by rising sea levels.
Earth’s ocean is rising, disrupting livelihoods and infrastructure in coastal communities around the world. Agencies and organizations are working to prepare people as their world changes around them, and NASA information is helping these efforts.
The agency’s global data is now available in the sea level section of the Earth Information Center. NASA developed the global sea level change website in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Defense, the World Bank, the U.S. Department of State, and the United Nations Development Programme.
The site includes information on projected sea level rise through the year 2150 for coastlines around the world, as well as estimates of how much flooding a coastal community or region can expect to see in the next 30 years. The projections come from data collected by NASA and its partners and from computer models of ice sheets and the ocean, as well as the latest sea level assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and other sources.
“NASA innovates for the benefit of humanity. Our cutting-edge instruments and data-driven information tools help communities and organizations respond to natural hazards and extreme weather, and inform critical coastal infrastructure planning decisions,” said Karen St. Germain, director of the Earth science division at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
Information to Action
International organizations such as the World Bank will use the data from the global sea level change site for tasks including the creation of Climate Risk Profiles for countries especially vulnerable to sea level rise.
The Defense Department will continue to incorporate sea level rise data into its plans to anticipate and respond to hazards posed to its facilities by the effects of rising oceans. Similarly, the State Department uses the information for activities ranging from disaster preparedness to long-term adaptation planning to supporting partners around the world in related efforts.
“We are at a moment of truth in our fight against the climate crisis. The science is unequivocal and must serve as the bedrock upon which decision-making is built. With many communities around the world already facing severe impacts from sea-level rise, this new resource provides a vital tool to help them protect lives and livelihoods. It also illustrates what is at stake between a 1.5-degree-Celsius world and a current-policies trajectory for all coastal communities worldwide,” said Assistant Secretary-General Selwin Hart, special adviser to the United Nations secretary-general on climate action and just transition.
Rising Faster
NASA-led data analyses have revealed that between 1970 and 2023, 96% of countries with coastlines have experienced sea level rise. The rate of that global rise has also accelerated, more than doubling from 0.08 inches (0.21 centimeters) per year in 1993 to about 0.18 inches (0.45 centimeters) per year in 2023.
As the rate of sea level rise increases, millions of people could face the related effects sooner than previously projected, including larger storm surges, more saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and additional high-tide flood days — also known as nuisance floods or sunny day floods.
“This new platform shows the timing of future floods and the magnitude of rising waters in all coastal countries worldwide, connecting science and physics to impacts on people’s livelihoods and safety,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director of the ocean physics program at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
Data released earlier this year found that Pacific Island nations will experience at least 6 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise in the next 30 years. The number of high-tide flood days will increase by an order of magnitude for nearly all Pacific Island nations by the 2050s.
“The data is clear: Sea levels are rising around the world, and they’re rising faster and faster,” said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and head of the agency’s sea level change science team. “Having the best information to make decisions about how to plan for rising seas is more crucial than ever.”
To explore the global sea level change site:
https://earth.gov/sealevel
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Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
The Permafrost Tunnel north of Fairbanks, Alaska, was dug in the 1960s and is run by the U.S. Army’s Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory. It is the site of much research into permafrost — ground that stays frozen throughout the year, for multiple years.NASA/Kate Ramsayer Earth’s far northern reaches have locked carbon underground for millennia. New research paints a picture of a landscape in change.
A new study, co-authored by NASA scientists, details where and how greenhouse gases are escaping from the Earth’s vast northern permafrost region as the Arctic warms. The frozen soils encircling the Arctic from Alaska to Canada to Siberia store twice as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere — hundreds of billions of tons — and most of it has been buried for centuries.
An international team, led by researchers at Stockholm University, found that from 2000 to 2020, carbon dioxide uptake by the land was largely offset by emissions from it. Overall, they concluded that the region has been a net contributor to global warming in recent decades in large part because of another greenhouse gas, methane, that is shorter-lived but traps significantly more heat per molecule than carbon dioxide.
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Greenhouse gases shroud the globe in this animation showing data from 2021. Carbon dioxide is shown in orange; methane is shown in purple. Methane traps heat 28 times more effectively than carbon dioxide over a 100-year timescale. Wetlands are a significant source of such emissions.NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio The findings reveal a landscape in flux, said Abhishek Chatterjee, a co-author and scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “We know that the permafrost region has captured and stored carbon for tens of thousands of years,” he said. “But what we are finding now is that climate-driven changes are tipping the balance toward permafrost being a net source of greenhouse gas emissions.”
Carbon Stockpile
Permafrost is ground that has been permanently frozen for anywhere from two years to hundreds of thousands of years. A core of it reveals thick layers of icy soils enriched with dead plant and animal matter that can be dated using radiocarbon and other techniques. When permafrost thaws and decomposes, microbes feed on this organic carbon, releasing some of it as greenhouse gases.
Unlocking a fraction of the carbon stored in permafrost could further fuel climate change. Temperatures in the Arctic are already warming two to four times faster than the global average, and scientists are learning how thawing permafrost is shifting the region from being a net sink for greenhouse gases to becoming a net source of warming.
They’ve tracked emissions using ground-based instruments, aircraft, and satellites. One such campaign, NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), is focused on Alaska and western Canada. Yet locating and measuring emissions across the far northern fringes of Earth remains challenging. One obstacle is the vast scale and diversity of the environment, composed of evergreen forests, sprawling tundra, and waterways.
This map, based on data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, shows the extent of Arctic permafrost. The amount of permafrost underlying the surface ranges from continuous — in the coldest areas — to more isolated and sporadic patches.NASA Earth Observatory Cracks in the Sink
The new study was undertaken as part of the Global Carbon Project’s RECCAP-2 effort, which brings together different science teams, tools, and datasets to assess regional carbon balances every few years. The authors followed the trail of three greenhouse gases — carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide — across 7 million square miles (18 million square kilometers) of permafrost terrain from 2000 to 2020.
Researchers found the region, especially the forests, took up a fraction more carbon dioxide than it released. This uptake was largely offset by carbon dioxide emitted from lakes and rivers, as well as from fires that burned both forest and tundra.
They also found that the region’s lakes and wetlands were strong sources of methane during those two decades. Their waterlogged soils are low in oxygen while containing large volumes of dead vegetation and animal matter — ripe conditions for hungry microbes. Compared to carbon dioxide, methane can drive significant climate warming in short timescales before breaking down relatively quickly. Methane’s lifespan in the atmosphere is about 10 years, whereas carbon dioxide can last hundreds of years.
The findings suggest the net change in greenhouse gases helped warm the planet over the 20-year period. But over a 100-year period, emissions and absorptions would mostly cancel each other out. In other words, the region teeters from carbon source to weak sink. The authors noted that events such as extreme wildfires and heat waves are major sources of uncertainty when projecting into the future.
Bottom Up, Top Down
The scientists used two main strategies to tally greenhouse gas emissions from the region. “Bottom-up” methods estimate emissions from ground- and air-based measurements and ecosystem models. Top-down methods use atmospheric measurements taken directly from satellite sensors, including those on NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and JAXA’s (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency)Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite.
Regarding near-term, 20-year, global warming potential, both scientific approaches aligned on the big picture but differed in magnitude: The bottom-up calculations indicated significantly more warming.
“This study is one of the first where we are able to integrate different methods and datasets to put together this very comprehensive greenhouse gas budget into one report,” Chatterjee said. “It reveals a very complex picture.”
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Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
Researchers think meltwater beneath Martian ice could support microbial life.
The white material seen within this Martian gully is believed to be dusty water ice. Scientists believe this kind of ice could be an excellent place to look for microbial life on Mars today. This image, showing part of a region called Dao Vallis, was captured by NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2009.NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona These holes, captured on Alaska’s Matanuska Glacier in 2012, are formed by cryoconite — dust particles that melt into the ice over time, eventually forming small pockets of water below the glacier’s surface. Scientists believe similar pockets of water could form within dusty water ice on Mars.Kimberly Casey CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 While actual evidence for life on Mars has never been found, a new NASA study proposes microbes could find a potential home beneath frozen water on the planet’s surface.
Through computer modeling, the study’s authors have shown that the amount of sunlight that can shine through water ice would be enough for photosynthesis to occur in shallow pools of meltwater below the surface of that ice. Similar pools of water that form within ice on Earth have been found to teem with life, including algae, fungi, and microscopic cyanobacteria, all of which derive energy from photosynthesis.
“If we’re trying to find life anywhere in the universe today, Martian ice exposures are probably one of the most accessible places we should be looking,” said the paper’s lead author, Aditya Khuller of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.
Mars has two kinds of ice: frozen water and frozen carbon dioxide. For their paper, published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment, Khuller and colleagues looked at water ice, large amounts of which formed from snow mixed with dust that fell on the surface during a series of Martian ice ages in the past million years. That ancient snow has since solidified into ice, still peppered with specks of dust.
Although dust particles may obscure light in deeper layers of the ice, they are key to explaining how subsurface pools of water could form within ice when exposed to the Sun: Dark dust absorbs more sunlight than the surrounding ice, potentially causing the ice to warm up and melt up to a few feet below the surface.
The white edges along these gullies in Mars’ Terra Sirenum are believed to be dusty water ice. Scientists think meltwater could form beneath the surface of this kind of ice, providing a place for possible photosynthesis. This is an enhanced-color image; the blue color would not actually be perceptible to the human eye.NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona Mars scientists are divided about whether ice can actually melt when exposed to the Martian surface. That’s due to the planet’s thin, dry atmosphere, where water ice is believed to sublimate — turn directly into gas — the way dry ice does on Earth. But the atmospheric effects that make melting difficult on the Martian surface wouldn’t apply below the surface of a dusty snowpack or glacier.
Thriving Microcosms
On Earth, dust within ice can create what are called cryoconite holes — small cavities that form in ice when particles of windblown dust (called cryoconite) land there, absorb sunlight, and melt farther into the ice each summer. Eventually, as these dust particles travel farther from the Sun’s rays, they stop sinking, but they still generate enough warmth to create a pocket of meltwater around them. The pockets can nourish a thriving ecosystem for simple lifeforms..
“This is a common phenomenon on Earth,” said co-author Phil Christensen of Arizona State University in Tempe, referring to ice melting from within. “Dense snow and ice can melt from the inside out, letting in sunlight that warms it like a greenhouse, rather than melting from the top down.”
Christensen has studied ice on Mars for decades. He leads operations for a heat-sensitive camera called THEMIS (Thermal Emission Imaging System) aboard NASA’s 2001 Mars Odyssey orbiter. In past research, Christensen and Gary Clow of the University of Colorado Boulder used modeling to demonstrate how liquid water could form within dusty snowpack on the Red Planet. That work, in turn, provided a foundation for the new paper focused on whether photosynthesis could be possible on Mars.
In 2021, Christensen and Khuller co-authored a paper on the discovery of dusty water ice exposed within gullies on Mars, proposing that many Martian gullies form by erosion caused by the ice melting to form liquid water.
This new paper suggests that dusty ice lets in enough light for photosynthesis to occur as deep as 9 feet (3 meters) below the surface. In this scenario, the upper layers of ice prevent the shallow subsurface pools of water from evaporating while also providing protection from harmful radiation. That’s important, because unlike Earth, Mars lacks a protective magnetic field to shield it from both the Sun and radioactive cosmic ray particles zipping around space.
The study authors say the water ice that would be most likely to form subsurface pools would exist in Mars’ tropics, between 30 degrees and 60 degrees latitude, in both the northern and southern hemispheres.
Khuller next hopes to re-create some of Mars’ dusty ice in a lab to study it up close. Meanwhile, he and other scientists are beginning to map out the most likely spots on Mars to look for shallow meltwater — locations that could be scientific targets for possible human and robotic missions in the future.
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NASA’s LRO: Lunar Ice Deposits are Widespread
Deposits of ice in lunar dust and rock (regolith) are more extensive than previously thought, according to a new analysis of data from NASA’s LRO (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) mission. Ice would be a valuable resource for future lunar expeditions. Water could be used for radiation protection and supporting human explorers, or broken into its hydrogen and oxygen components to make rocket fuel, energy, and breathable air.
Prior studies found signs of ice in the larger permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) near the lunar South Pole, including areas within Cabeus, Haworth, Shoemaker and Faustini craters. In the new work, “We find that there is widespread evidence of water ice within PSRs outside the South Pole, towards at least 77 degrees south latitude,” said Dr. Timothy P. McClanahan of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of a paper on this research published October 2 in the Planetary Science Journal.
The study further aids lunar mission planners by providing maps and identifying the surface characteristics that show where ice is likely and less likely to be found, with evidence for why that should be. “Our model and analysis show that greatest ice concentrations are expected to occur near the PSRs’ coldest locations below 75 Kelvin (-198°C or -325°F) and near the base of the PSRs’ poleward-facing slopes,” said McClanahan.
This illustration shows the distribution of permanently shadowed regions (in blue) on the Moon poleward of 80 degrees South latitude. They are superimposed on a digital elevation map of the lunar surface (grey) from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter instrument on board NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft. NASA/GSFC/Timothy P. McClanahan “We can’t accurately determine the volume of the PSRs’ ice deposits or identify if they might be buried under a dry layer of regolith. However, we expect that for each surface 1.2 square yards (square meter) residing over these deposits there should be at least about five more quarts (five more liters) of ice within the surface top 3.3 feet (meter), as compared to their surrounding areas,” said McClanahan. The study also mapped where fewer, smaller, or lower-concentration ice deposits would be expected, occurring primarily towards warmer, periodically illuminated areas.
Ice could become implanted in lunar regolith through comet and meteor impacts, released as vapor (gas) from the lunar interior, or be formed by chemical reactions between hydrogen in the solar wind and oxygen in the regolith. PSRs typically occur in topographic depressions near the lunar poles. Because of the low Sun angle, these areas haven’t seen sunlight for up to billions of years, so are perpetually in extreme cold. Ice molecules are thought to be repeatedly dislodged from the regolith by meteorites, space radiation, or sunlight and travel across the lunar surface until they land in a PSR where they are entrapped by extreme cold. The PSR’s continuously cold surfaces can preserve ice molecules near the surface for perhaps billions of years, where they may accumulate into a deposit that is rich enough to mine. Ice is thought to be quickly lost on surfaces that are exposed to direct sunlight, which precludes their accumulations.
The team used LRO’s Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) instrument to detect signs of ice deposits by measuring moderate-energy, “epithermal” neutrons. Specifically, the team used LEND’s Collimated Sensor for Epithermal Neutrons (CSETN) that has a fixed 18.6-mile (30-kilometer) diameter field-of-view. Neutrons are created by high-energy galactic cosmic rays that come from powerful deep-space events such as exploding stars, that impact the lunar surface, break up regolith atoms, and scatter subatomic particles called neutrons. The neutrons, which can originate from up to about a 3.3-foot (meter’s) depth, ping-pong their way through the regolith, running into other atoms. Some get directed into space, where they can be detected by LEND. Since hydrogen is about the same mass as a neutron, a collision with hydrogen causes the neutron to lose relatively more energy than a collision with most common regolith elements. So, where hydrogen is present in regolith, its concentration creates a corresponding reduction in the observed number of moderate-energy neutrons.
“We hypothesized that if all PSRs have the same hydrogen concentration, then CSETN should proportionally detect their hydrogen concentrations as a function of their areas. So, more hydrogen should be observed towards the larger-area PSRs,” said McClanahan.
The model was developed from a theoretical study that demonstrated how similarly hydrogen-enhanced PSRs would be detected by CSETNs fixed-area field-of-view. The correlation was demonstrated using the neutron emissions from 502 PSRs with areas ranging from 1.5 square miles (4 km2) to 417 square miles (1079 km2) that contrasted against their surrounding less hydrogen-enhanced areas. The correlation was expectedly weak for the small PSRs but increased towards the larger-area PSRs.
The research was sponsored by the LRO project science team, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center’s Artificial Intelligence Working Group, and NASA grant award number 80GSFC21M0002. The study was conducted using NASA’s LRO Diviner radiometer and Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter instruments. The LEND instrument was developed by the Russian Space Agency, Roscosmos by its Space Research Institute (IKI). LEND was integrated to the LRO spacecraft at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. LRO is managed by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
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Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
Pacific Island nations such as Kiribati — a low-lying country in the southern Pacific Ocean — are preparing now for a future of higher sea levels.NASA Earth Observatory Climate change is rapidly reshaping a region of the world that’s home to millions of people.
In the next 30 years, Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 8 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise, according to an analysis by NASA’s sea level change science team. This amount of rise will occur regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions change in the coming years.
The sea level change team undertook the analysis of this region at the request of several Pacific Island nations, including Tuvalu and Kiribati, and in close coordination with the U.S. Department of State.
In addition to the overall analysis, the agency’s sea level team produced high-resolution maps showing which areas of different Pacific Island nations will be vulnerable to high-tide flooding — otherwise known as nuisance flooding or sunny day flooding — by the 2050s. Released on Sept. 23, the maps outline flooding potential in a range of emissions scenarios, from best-case to business-as-usual to worst-case.
“Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs ocean physics programs for NASA’s Earth Science Division. “NASA’s new flood tool tells you what the potential increase in flooding frequency and severity look like in the next decades for the coastal communities of the Pacific Island nations.”
Team members, led by researchers at the University of Hawaii and in collaboration with scientists at the University of Colorado and Virginia Tech, started with flood maps of Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji, Nauru, and Niue. They plan to build high-resolution maps for other Pacific Island nations in the near future. The maps can assist Pacific Island nations in deciding where to focus mitigation efforts.
“Science and data can help the community of Tuvalu in relaying accurate sea level rise projections,” said Grace Malie, a youth leader from Tuvalu who is involved with the Rising Nations Initiative, a United Nations-supported program led by Pacific Island nations to help preserve their statehood and protect the rights and heritage of populations affected by climate change. “This will also help with early warning systems, which is something that our country is focusing on at the moment.”
Future Flooding
The analysis by the sea level change team also found that the number of high-tide flooding days in an average year will increase by an order of magnitude for nearly all Pacific Island nations by the 2050s. Portions of the NASA team’s analysis were included in a sea level rise report published by the United Nations in August 2024.
Areas of Tuvalu that currently see less than five high-tide flood days a year could average 25 flood days annually by the 2050s. Regions of Kiribati that see fewer than five flood days a year today will experience an average of 65 flood days annually by the 2050s.
“I am living the reality of climate change,” said Malie. “Everyone (in Tuvalu) lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this.”
Flooding on island nations can come from the ocean inundating land during storms or during exceptionally high tides, called king tides. But it can also result when saltwater intrudes into underground areas and pushes the water table to the surface. “There are points on the island where we will see seawater bubbling from beneath the surface and heavily flooding the area,” Malie added.
Matter of Location
Sea level rise doesn’t occur uniformly around the world. A combination of global and local conditions, such as the topography of a coastline and how glacial meltwater is distributed in the ocean, affects the amount of rise a particular region will experience.
“We’re always focused on the differences in sea level rise from one region to another, but in the Pacific, the numbers are surprisingly consistent,” said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and the agency’s sea level change science team lead.
The impacts of 8 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise will vary from country to country. For instance, some nations could experience nuisance flooding several times a year at their airport, while others might face frequent neighborhood flooding equivalent to being inundated for nearly half the year.
Researchers would like to combine satellite data on ocean levels with ground-based measurements of sea levels at specific points, as well as with better land elevation information. “But there’s a real lack of on-the-ground data in these countries,” said Hamlington. The combination of space-based and ground-based measurements can yield more precise sea level rise projections and improved understanding of the impacts to countries in the Pacific.
“The future of the young people of Tuvalu is already at stake,” said Malie. “Climate change is more than an environmental crisis. It is about justice, survival for nations like Tuvalu, and global responsibility.”
To explore the high-tide flooding maps for Pacific Island nations, go to:
https://sealevel.nasa.gov
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Last Updated Sep 25, 2024 Related Terms
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