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By NASA
3 min read
NASA Solar Observatory Sees Coronal Loops Flicker Before Big Flares
For decades, scientists have tried in vain to accurately predict solar flares — intense bursts of light on the Sun that can send a flurry of charged particles into the solar system. Now, using NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, one team has identified flickering loops in the solar atmosphere, or corona, that seem to signal when the Sun is about to unleash a large flare.
These warning signs could help NASA and other stakeholders protect astronauts as well as technology both in space and on the ground from hazardous space weather.
NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of coronal loops above an active region on the Sun in mid-January 2012. The image was taken in the 171 angstrom wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light. NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory Led by heliophysicist Emily Mason of Predictive Sciences Inc. in San Diego, California, the team studied arch-like structures called coronal loops along the edge of the Sun. Coronal loops rise from magnetically driven active regions on the Sun, where solar flares also originate.
The team looked at coronal loops near 50 strong solar flares, analyzing how their brightness in extreme ultraviolet light varied in the hours before a flare compared to loops above non-flaring regions. Like flashing warning lights, the loops above flaring regions varied much more than those above non-flaring regions.
“We found that some of the extreme ultraviolet light above active regions flickers erratically for a few hours before a solar flare,” Mason explained. “The results are really important for understanding flares and may improve our ability to predict dangerous space weather.”
Published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters in December 2024 and presented on Jan. 15, 2025, at a press conference during the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society, the results also hint that the flickering reaches a peak earlier for stronger flares. However, the team says more observations are needed to confirm this link.
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The four panels in this movie show brightness changes in coronal loops in four different wavelengths of extreme ultraviolet light (131, 171, 193, and 304 angstroms) before a solar flare in December 2011. The images were taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory and processed to reveal flickering in the coronal loops. NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory/JHelioviewer/E. Mason Other researchers have tried to predict solar flares by examining magnetic fields on the Sun, or by looking for consistent trends in other coronal loop features. However, Mason and her colleagues believe that measuring the brightness variations in coronal loops could provide more precise warnings than those methods — signaling oncoming flares 2 to 6 hours ahead of time with 60 to 80 percent accuracy.
“A lot of the predictive schemes that have been developed are still predicting the likelihood of flares in a given time period and not necessarily exact timing,” said team member Seth Garland of the Air Force Institute of Technology at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio.
Each solar flare is like a snowflake — every single flare is unique.
Kara kniezewski
Air Force Institute of Technology
“The Sun’s corona is a dynamic environment, and each solar flare is like a snowflake — every single flare is unique,” said team member Kara Kniezewski, a graduate student at the Air Force Institute of Technology and lead author of the paper. “We find that searching for periods of ‘chaotic’ behavior in the coronal loop emission, rather than specific trends, provide a much more consistent metric and may also correlate with how strong a flare will be.”
The scientists hope their findings about coronal loops can eventually be used to help keep astronauts, spacecraft, electrical grids, and other assets safe from the harmful radiation that accompanies solar flares. For example, an automated system could look for brightness changes in coronal loops in real-time images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and issue alerts.
“Previous work by other researchers reports some interesting prediction metrics,” said co-author Vadim Uritsky of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and the Catholic University of Washington in D.C. “We could build on this and come up with a well-tested and, ideally, simpler indicator ready for the leap from research to operations.”
By Vanessa Thomas
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
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Last Updated Jan 15, 2025 Related Terms
Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Heliophysics Division Space Weather The Sun Explore More
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By NASA
NASA/Steve Freeman On Oct. 22, 2024, the latest iteration of an atmospheric probe developed by researchers at NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California, successfully completed a test flight. Building on NASA 1960s research on lifting body aircraft, which use the aircraft’s shape for lift instead of wings, the concept could offer future scientists a potentially better and more economical way to collect data on other planets. Testing demonstrated the shape of the probe works.
The atmospheric probe flew after release from a quad-rotor remotely piloted aircraft above Rogers Dry Lake, a flight area adjacent to NASA Armstrong. “I’m ecstatic,” said John Bodylski, atmospheric probe principal investigator at NASA Armstrong. “It was completely stable in flight. We will be looking at releasing it from a higher altitude to keep it flying longer and demonstrate more maneuvers.”
See more photos from the test flight.
Image credit: Steve Freeman
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By NASA
3 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
NASA/Steve Parcel The most effective way to prove a new idea is to start small, test, learn, and test again. A team of researchers developing an atmospheric probe at NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California, are taking that approach. The concept could offer future scientists a potentially better and more economical way to collect data on other planets.
The latest iteration of the atmospheric probe flew after release from a quad-rotor remotely piloted aircraft on Oct. 22 above Rogers Dry Lake, a flight area adjacent to NASA Armstrong. The probe benefits from NASA 1960s research on lifting body aircraft, which use the aircraft’s shape for lift instead of wings. Testing demonstrated the shape of the probe works.
“I’m ecstatic,” said John Bodylski, atmospheric probe principal investigator at NASA Armstrong. “It was completely stable in flight. We will be looking at releasing it from a higher altitude to keep it flying longer and demonstrate more maneuvers.”
An atmospheric probe model attached upside down to a quad rotor remotely piloted aircraft ascends with the Moon visible on Oct. 22, 2024. The quad rotor aircraft released the probe above Rogers Dry Lake, a flight area adjacent NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California. The probe was designed and built at the center.NASA/Steve Freeman Starting with a Center Innovation Fund award in 2023, Bodylski worked closely with the center’s Dale Reed Subscale Flight Research Laboratory to design and build three atmospheric probe models, each vehicle 28 inches long from nose to tail. One model is a visual to show what the concept looks like, while two additional prototypes improved the technology’s readiness.
The road to the successful flight wasn’t smooth, which is expected with any new flight idea. The first flight on Aug. 1 didn’t go as planned. The release mechanism didn’t work as expected and air movement from the quad rotor aircraft was greater than anticipated. It was that failure that inspired the research team to take another look at everything about the vehicle, leading to many improvements, said Justin Hall, NASA Armstrong chief pilot of small, unmanned aircraft systems.
Fast forward to Oct. 22, where the redesign of the release mechanism, in addition to an upside-down release and modified flight control surfaces, led to a stable and level flight. “Everything we learned from the first vehicle failing and integrating what we learned into this one seemed to work well,” Hall said. “This is a win for us. We have a good place to go from here and there’s some more changes we can make to improve it.”
Justin Link, left, small unmanned aircraft systems pilot; John Bodylski, atmospheric probe principal investigator; and Justin Hall, chief pilot of small unmanned aircraft systems, discuss details of the atmospheric probe flight plan on Oct. 22, 2024. A quad rotor remotely piloted aircraft released the probe above Rogers Dry Lake, a flight area adjacent NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California. The probe was designed and built at the center.NASA/Steve Freeman Bodylski added, “We are going to focus on getting the aircraft to pull up sooner to give us more flight time to learn more about the prototype. We will go to a higher altitude [this flight started at 560 feet altitude] on the next flight because we are not worried about the aircraft’s stability.”
When the team reviewed flight photos and video from the Oct. 22 flight they identified additional areas for improvement. Another atmospheric probe will be built with enhancements and flown. Following another successful flight, the team plans to instrument a future atmospheric probe that will gather data and improve computer models. Data gathering is the main goal for the current flights to give scientists confidence in additional probe shapes for atmospheric missions on other planets.
If this concept is eventually chosen for a mission, it would ride on a satellite to its destination. From there, the probe would separate as the parent satellite orbits around a planet, then enter and dive through the atmosphere as it gathers information for clues of how the solar system formed.
Justin Hall, chief pilot of small unmanned aircraft systems, prepares the atmospheric probe for flight above Rogers Dry Lake, a flight area adjacent NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California. At right, Justin Link, small unmanned aircraft systems pilot, assists. The probe, designed and built at the center, flew after release from a quad rotor remotely piloted aircraft on Oct. 22, 2024.NASA/Steve Freeman Derek Abramson, left, chief engineer for the Dale Reed Subscale Flight Research Laboratory, and Justin Link, small unmanned aircraft system pilot, carry the atmospheric probe model and a quad rotor remotely piloted aircraft to position it for flight on Oct. 24, 2024. John Bodylski, probe principal investigator, right, and videographer Jacob Shaw watch the preparations. Once at altitude, the quad rotor aircraft released the probe above Rogers Dry Lake, a flight area adjacent to NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California. The probe was designed and built at the center.NASA/Steve Freeman A quad rotor remotely piloted aircraft releases the atmospheric probe model above Rogers Dry Lake, a flight area adjacent NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California, on Oct. 22, 2024. The probe was designed and built at the center.NASA/Carla Thomas Share
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Last Updated Dec 11, 2024 Related Terms
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By NASA
10 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
Return to 2024 SARP Closeout Faculty Advisors:
Dr. Guanyu Huang, Stony Brook University
Graduate Mentor:
Ryan Schmedding, McGill University
Ryan Schmedding, Graduate Mentor
Ryan Schmedding, graduate mentor for the 2024 SARP Atmospheric Science group, provides an introduction for each of the group members and shares behind-the scenes moments from the internship.
Danielle Jones
Remote sensing of poor air quality in mountains: A case study in Kathmandu, Nepal
Danielle Jones
Urban activity produces particulate matter in the atmosphere known as aerosol particles. These aerosols can negatively affect human health and cause changes to the climate system. Measures for aerosols include surface level PM2.5 concentration and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Kathmandu, Nepal is an urban area that rests in a valley on the edge of the Himalayas and is home to over three million people. Despite the prevailing easterly winds, local aerosols are mostly concentrated in the valley from the residential burning of coal followed by industry. Exposure to PM2.5 has caused an estimated ≥8.6% of deaths annually in Nepal. We paired NASA satellite AOD and elevation data, model meteorological data, and local AirNow PM2.5 and air quality index (AQI) data to determine causes of variation in pollutant measurement during 2023, with increased emphasis on the post-monsoon season (Oct. 1 – Dec. 31). We see the seasonality of meteorological data related to PM2.5 and AQI. During periods of low temperature, low wind speed, and high pressure, PM2.5 and AQI data slightly diverge. This may indicate that temperature inversions increase surface level concentrations of aerosols but have little effect on the total air column. The individual measurements of surface pressure, surface temperature, and wind speed had no observable correlation to AOD (which was less variable than PM2.5 and AQI over the entire year). Elevation was found to have no observable effect on AOD during the period of study. Future research should focus on the relative contributions of different pollutants to the AQI to test if little atmospheric mixing causes the formation of low-altitude secondary pollutants in addition to PM2.5 leading to the observed divergence in AQI and PM2.5.
Madison Holland
Analyzing the Transport and Impact of June 2023 Canadian Wildfire Smoke on Surface PM2.5 Levels in Allentown, Pennsylvania
Madison Holland
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unparalleled in its severity. Over 17 million hectares burned, the largest area ever burned in a single season. The smoke from these wildfires spread thousands of kilometers, causing a large population to be exposed to air pollution. Wildfires can release a variety of air pollutants, including fine particulate matter (PM2.5). PM2.5 directly affects human health – exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 has been associated with respiratory issues such as the exacerbation of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In June 2023, smoke from the Canadian wildfires drifted southward into the United States. The northeastern United States reported unhealthy levels of air quality due to the transportation of the smoke. In particular, Pennsylvania reported that Canadian wildfires caused portions of the state to have “Hazardous” air quality. Our research focused on how Allentown, PA experienced hazardous levels of air quality from this event. To analyze the concentrations of PM2.5 at the surface level, NASA’s Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) and the EPA’s Air Quality System (AQS) ground-based site data were utilized. By comparing HAQES’s forecast of hazardous air quality events with recorded daily average PM2.5 with the EPA’s AQS, we were able to compare how well the ensemble system was at predicting total PM2.5 during unhealthy air quality days. NOAA’s Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, pyrsig, and the Canadian National Fire Database were used. These datasets revealed the trajectory of aerosols from the wildfires to Allentown, Pennsylvania, identified the densest regions of the smoke plumes, and provided a map of wildfire locations in southeastern Canada. By integrating these datasets, we traced how wildfire smoke transported aerosols from the source at the ground level.
Michele Iraci
Trends and Transport of Tropospheric Ozone From New York City to Connecticut in the Summer of 2023
Michele Iraci
Tropospheric Ozone, or O₃, is a criteria pollutant contributing to most of Connecticut and New York City’s poor air quality days. It has adverse effects on human health, particularly for high-risk individuals. Ozone is produced by nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds from fuel combustion reacting with sunlight. The Ozone Transport Region (OTR) is a collection of states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States that experience cross-state pollution of O₃. Connecticut has multiple days a year where O₃ values exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standards requiring the implementation of additional monitoring and standards because it falls in the OTR. Partially due to upstream transport from New York City, Connecticut experiences increases in O₃ concentrations in the summer months. Connecticut has seen declines in poor air quality days from O₃ every year due to the regulations on ozone and its precursors. We use ground-based Lidar, Air Quality System data, and a back-trajectory model to examine a case of ozone enhancement in Connecticut caused by air pollutants from New York between June and August 2023. In this time period, Connecticut’s ozone enhancement was caused by air pollutants from New York City. As a result, New York City and Connecticut saw similar O₃ spikes and decline trends. High-temperature days increase O₃ in both places, and wind out of the southwest may transport O₃ to Connecticut. Production and transport of O₃ from New York City help contribute to Connecticut’s poor air quality days, resulting in the need for interstate agreements on pollution management.
Stefan Sundin
Correlations Between the Planetary Boundary Layer Height and the Lifting Condensation Level
Stefan Sundin
The Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) characterizes the lowest layer in the atmosphere that is coupled with diurnal heating at the surface. The PBL grows during the day as solar heating causes pockets of air near the surface to rise and mix with cooler air above. Depending on the type of terrain and surface albedo that receives solar heating, the depth of the PBL can vary to a great extent. This makes PBL height (PBLH) a difficult variable to quantify spatially and temporally. While several methods have been used to obtain the PBLH such as wind profilers and lidar techniques, there is still a level of uncertainty associated with PBLH. One method of predicting seasonal PBLH fluctuation and potentially lessening uncertainty that will be discussed in this study is recognizing a correlation in PBLH with the lifting condensation level (LCL). Like the PBL, the LCL is used as a convective parameter when analyzing upper air data, and classifies the height in the atmosphere at which a parcel becomes saturated when lifted by a forcing mechanism, such as a frontal boundary, localized convergence, or orographic lifting. A reason to believe that PBLH and LCL are interconnected is their dependency on both the amount of surface heating and moisture that is present in the environment. These thermodynamic properties are of interest in heavily populated metropolitan areas within the Great Plains, as they are more susceptible to severe weather outbreaks and associated economic losses. Correlations between PBLH and LCL over the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan statistical area during the summer months of 2019-2023 will be discussed.
Angelica Kusen
Coupling of Chlorophyll-a Concentrations and Aerosol Optical Depth in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean and South China Sea (2019-2021)
Angelica Kusen
Air-sea interactions form a complex feedback mechanism, whereby aerosols impact physical and biogeochemical processes in marine environments, which, in turn, alter aerosol properties. One key indicator of these interactions is chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), a pigment common to all phytoplankton and a widely used proxy for primary productivity in marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton require soluble nutrients and trace metals for growth, which typically come from oceanic processes such as upwelling. These nutrients can also be supplied via wet and dry deposition, where atmospheric aerosols are removed from the atmosphere and deposited into the ocean. To explore this interaction, we analyze the spatial and temporal variations of satellite-derived chl-a and AOD, their correlations, and their relationship with wind patterns in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean and the South China Sea from 2019 to 2021, two regions with contrasting environmental conditions.
In the Subantarctic Southern Ocean, a positive correlation (r²= 0.26) between AOD and Chl-a was found, likely due to dust storms following Austrian wildfires. Winds deposit dust aerosols rich in nutrients, such as iron, to the iron-limited ocean, enhancing phytoplankton photosynthesis and increasing chl-a. In contrast, the South China Sea showed no notable correlation (r² = -0.02) between AOD and chl-a. Decreased emissions due to COVID-19 and stricter pollution controls likely reduced the total AOD load and shifted the composition of aerosols from anthropogenic to more natural sources.
These findings highlight the complex interrelationship between oceanic biological activity and the chemical composition of the atmosphere, emphasizing that atmospheric delivery of essential nutrients, such as iron and phosphorus, promotes phytoplankton growth. Finally, NASA’s recently launched PACE mission will contribute observations of phytoplankton community composition at unprecedented scale, possibly enabling attribution of AOD levels to particular groups of phytoplankton.
Chris Hautman
Estimating CO₂ Emission from Rocket Plumes Using in Situ Data from Low Earth Atmosphere
Chris Hautman
Rocket emissions in the lower atmosphere are becoming an increasing environmental concern as space exploration and commercial satellite launches have increased exponentially in recent years. Rocket plumes are one of the few known sources of anthropogenic emissions directly into the upper atmosphere. Emissions in the lower atmosphere may also be of interest due to their impacts on human health and the environment, in particular, ground level pollutants transported over wildlife protected zones, such as the Everglades, or population centers near launch sites. While rockets are a known source of atmospheric pollution, the study of rocket exhaust is an ongoing task. Rocket exhaust can have a variety of compositions depending on the type of engine, the propellants used, including fuels, oxidizers, and monopropellants, the stoichiometry of the combustion itself also plays a role. In addition, there has been increasing research into compounds being vaporized in atmospheric reentry. These emissions, while relatively minimal compared to other methods of travel, pose an increasing threat to atmospheric stability and environmental health with the increase in human space activity. This study attempts to create a method for estimating the total amount of carbon dioxide released by the first stage of a rocket launch relative to the mass flow of RP-1, a highly refined kerosene (C₁₂H₂₆)), and liquid oxygen (LOX) propellants. Particularly, this study will focus on relating in situ CO₂ emission data from a Delta II rocket launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base on April 15, 1999, to CO₂ emissions from popular modern rockets, such as the Falcon 9 (SpaceX) and Soyuz variants (Russia). The findings indicate that the CO₂ density of any RP-1/LOX rocket is 6.9E-7 times the mass flow of the sum of all engines on the first stage. The total mass of CO₂ emitted can be further estimated by modeling the volume of the plume as cylindrical. Therefore, the total mass can be calculated as a function of mass flow and first stage main engine cutoff. Future CO₂ emissions on an annual basis are calculated based on these estimations and anticipated increases in launch frequency.
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Last Updated Nov 22, 2024 Related Terms
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By NASA
2 min read
NASA Reveals Prototype Telescope for Gravitational Wave Observatory
NASA has revealed the first look at a full-scale prototype for six telescopes that will enable, in the next decade, the space-based detection of gravitational waves — ripples in space-time caused by merging black holes and other cosmic sources.
On May 20, the full-scale Engineering Development Unit Telescope for the LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) mission, still in its shipping frame, was moved within a clean room at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. NASA/Dennis Henry The LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) mission is led by ESA (European Space Agency) in partnership with NASA to detect gravitational waves by using lasers to measure precise distances — down to picometers, or trillionths of a meter — between a trio of spacecraft distributed in a vast configuration larger than the Sun. Each side of the triangular array will measure nearly 1.6 million miles, or 2.5 million kilometers.
“Twin telescopes aboard each spacecraft will both transmit and receive infrared laser beams to track their companions, and NASA is supplying all six of them to the LISA mission,” said Ryan DeRosa, a researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “The prototype, called the Engineering Development Unit Telescope, will guide us as we work toward building the flight hardware.”
The prototype LISA telescope undergoes post-delivery inspection in a darkened NASA Goddard clean room on May 20. The entire telescope is made from an amber-colored glass-ceramic that resists changes in shape over a wide temperature range, and the mirror’s surface is coated in gold. NASA/Dennis Henry The Engineering Development Unit Telescope, which was manufactured and assembled by L3Harris Technologies in Rochester, New York, arrived at Goddard in May. The primary mirror is coated in gold to better reflect the infrared lasers and to reduce heat loss from a surface exposed to cold space since the telescope will operate best when close to room temperature.
The prototype is made entirely from an amber-colored glass-ceramic called Zerodur, manufactured by Schott in Mainz, Germany. The material is widely used for telescope mirrors and other applications requiring high precision because its shape changes very little over a wide range of temperatures.
The LISA mission is slated to launch in the mid-2030s.
Download additional images from NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio
By Francis Reddy
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
Media Contact:
Claire Andreoli
301-286-1940
claire.andreoli@nasa.gov
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
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Last Updated Oct 22, 2024 Related Terms
Astrophysics Black Holes Galaxies, Stars, & Black Holes Goddard Space Flight Center Gravitational Waves LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) The Universe Keep Exploring Discover Related Topics
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