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Aumentan las temperaturas: La NASA confirma que el 2024 fue el año más cálido registrado


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2024gistempmap.png?w=2048
Este mapa de la Tierra en 2024 muestra las anomalías de la temperatura global de la superficie, es decir, cuánto más caliente o más fría estuvo cada región del planeta en comparación con el promedio de 1951 a 1980. Las temperaturas normales se muestran en blanco, las superiores a las normales en rojo y naranja, y las inferiores a las normales en azul. Una versión animada de este mapa muestra la evolución de las anomalías de la temperatura global a lo largo del tiempo, desde 1880. Descarga esta visualización del Estudio de Visualización Científica del Centro Goddard de la NASA: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5450.
Crédito: Estudio de Visualización Científica de la NASA

Read this release in English here.

En el año 2024, la temperatura promedio de la superficie de la Tierra fue la más cálida que se haya registrado, según un análisis liderado por científicos de la NASA.

“Una vez más, se ha batido el récord de temperatura: 2024 fue el año más cálido desde que se empezaron a llevar registros en 1880”, dijo el administrador de la NASA, Bill Nelson. “Entre las temperaturas récord y los incendios forestales que amenazan actualmente nuestros centros y personal en California, nunca ha sido más importante entender nuestro planeta cambiante”.

Las temperaturas globales del 2024 estuvieron 2,30 grados Fahrenheit (1,28 grados Celsius) por encima del promedio para el período de referencia de la NASA (de 1951 a 1980), superando el récord establecido en 2023. El nuevo máximo histórico llega después de 15 meses consecutivos (junio de 2023 a agosto de 2024) de récords de temperaturas mensuales, una racha de calor sin precedentes.

Científicos de la NASA también estiman que en el 2024 la Tierra estuvo alrededor de 2,65 grados Fahrenheit (1,47 grados Celsius) más cálida que el promedio de mediados del siglo XIX (1850-1900). Durante más de la mitad del 2024, las temperaturas promedio superaron en 1,5 grados Celsius el nivel de referencia, y el promedio anual, con incertidumbres matemáticas, podría haber superado el nivel por primera vez.

“El Acuerdo de París sobre el cambio climático establece esfuerzos para mantenerse por debajo del nivel de 1,5 grados a largo plazo. Para poner eso en perspectiva, las temperaturas durante los períodos cálidos en la Tierra hace tres millones de años —cuando el nivel del mar era decenas de metros más alto que hoy— eran solo unos 3 grados Celsius más cálidos que los niveles preindustriales”, dijo Gavin Schmidt, director del Instituto Goddard de Investigaciones Espaciales (GISS, por sus siglas en inglés) de la NASA en Nueva York. “Estamos a medio camino de alcanzar niveles de calor del Plioceno en apenas 150 años”.

Los científicos han concluido que la tendencia al calentamiento de las últimas décadas está siendo impulsada por el dióxido de carbono, el metano y otros gases de efecto invernadero que atrapan el calor. Según un análisis internacional reciente, en 2022 y 2023 la Tierra registró un aumento récord de las emisiones de dióxido de carbono procedentes de combustibles fósiles. La concentración de dióxido de carbono en la atmósfera ha aumentado desde los niveles preindustriales en el siglo XVIII de aproximadamente 278 partes por millón a alrededor de 420 partes por millón en la actualidad.

La NASA y otras agencias federales recopilan regularmente datos sobre las concentraciones y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Estos datos están disponibles en el Centro de Gases de Efecto Invernadero de Estados Unidos, una iniciativa de múltiples instituciones que consolida la información procedente de observaciones y modelos, con el fin de ofrecer a los responsables de la toma de decisiones un único punto de acceso a datos y análisis.

Tendencias de calor excepcional

Las temperaturas de cada año pueden verse influidas por fluctuaciones climáticas naturales como El Niño y La Niña, que alternativamente calientan y enfrían el océano Pacífico tropical. El fuerte fenómeno de El Niño que comenzó en el otoño boreal de 2023 contribuyó a que las temperaturas mundiales superaran los récords anteriores.

La ola de calor que comenzó en 2023 siguió superando las expectativas en 2024, según Schmidt, a pesar de que El Niño remitió. Los investigadores están trabajando en la identificación de los factores que contribuyen a este fenómeno, incluidos los posibles efectos climáticos de la erupción volcánica de Tonga de enero de 2022 y de las reducciones de la contaminación, que pueden cambiar la cubierta de nubes y la forma en que la energía solar se refleja hacia el espacio.

“No en todos los años se van a batir récords, pero la tendencia a largo plazo es clara”, dijo Schmidt. “Ya estamos viendo el impacto en las precipitaciones extremas, las olas de calor y el aumento del riesgo de inundaciones, que van a seguir empeorando mientras continúen las emisiones”.

Cambios a nivel local

La NASA elabora su registro de temperaturas a partir de los datos de temperatura del aire en superficie recolectados por decenas de miles de estaciones meteorológicas, así como de los datos de temperatura de la superficie del mar adquiridos por instrumentos en barcos y boyas. Para el análisis de estos datos, se emplean métodos que toman en consideración el espaciamiento variado de las estaciones de temperatura a nivel global y los efectos del calentamiento urbano que podrían sesgar los cálculos.

Una nueva evaluación publicada a principios de este año por científicos de la Escuela de Minas de Colorado, la Fundación Nacional para las Ciencias, la Administración Nacional Oceánica y Atmosférica (NOAA, por sus siglas en inglés) y la NASA provee aún más confianza en los datos de temperatura global y regional de la agencia.

“Cuando se producen cambios en el clima, primero se ven en la media mundial, luego se ven a nivel continental y después a nivel regional. Ahora lo estamos viendo a nivel local”, dijo Schmidt. “Los cambios que se están produciendo en las experiencias meteorológicas cotidianas de la gente se han hecho muy evidentes”.

Los análisis independientes de la NOAA, Berkeley Earth, el Centro Hadley (parte de la Oficina Meteorológica del Reino Unido, Met Office) y el Servicio de Cambio Climático de Copernicus en Europa también han concluido que las temperaturas de la superficie global para 2024 fueron las más altas desde que comenzaron los registros modernos. Estos científicos utilizan gran parte de los mismos datos de temperatura en sus análisis, pero emplean metodologías y modelos diferentes. Todos muestran la misma tendencia al calentamiento.

El conjunto completo de datos de la NASA sobre las temperaturas de la superficie global, así como los detalles (en inglés) de cómo los científicos de la NASA llevaron a cabo el análisis, están a disposición del público en GISS, un laboratorio de la NASA gestionado por el Centro de Vuelo Espacial Goddard de la agencia en Greenbelt, Maryland.

Para más información (en inglés) sobre los programas de ciencias de la Tierra de la NASA, visita:

https://www.nasa.gov/earth

-fin-

María José Viñas / Liz Vlock
Sede, Washington
240-458-0248 / 202-358-1600
maria-jose.vinasgarcia@nasa.gov / elizabeth.a.vlock@nasa.gov

Peter Jacobs
Centro de Vuelo Espacial Goddard, Greenbelt, MD.
301-286-0535
peter.jacobs@nasa.gov

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