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By NASA
Download PDF: Statistical Analysis Using Random Forest Algorithm Provides Key Insights into Parachute Energy Modulator System
Energy modulators (EM), also known as energy absorbers, are safety-critical components that are used to control shocks and impulses in a load path. EMs are textile devices typically manufactured out of nylon, Kevlar® and other materials, and control loads by breaking rows of stitches that bind a strong base webbing together as shown in Figure 1. A familiar EM application is a fall-protection harness used by workers to prevent injury from shock loads when the harness arrests a fall. EMs are also widely used in parachute systems to control shock loads experienced during the various stages of parachute system deployment.
Random forest is an innovative algorithm for data classification used in statistics and machine learning. It is an easy to use and highly flexible ensemble learning method. The random forest algorithm is capable of modeling both categorical and continuous data and can handle large datasets, making it applicable in many situations. It also makes it easy to evaluate the relative importance of variables and maintains accuracy even when a dataset has missing values.
Random forests model the relationship between a response variable and a set of predictor or independent variables by creating a collection of decision trees. Each decision tree is built from a random sample of the data. The individual trees are then combined through methods such as averaging or voting to determine the final prediction (Figure 2). A decision tree is a non-parametric supervised learning algorithm that partitions the data using a series of branching binary decisions. Decision trees inherently identify key features of the data and provide a ranking of the contribution of each feature based on when it becomes relevant. This capability can be used to determine the relative importance of the input variables (Figure 3). Decision trees are useful for exploring relationships but can have poor accuracy unless they are combined into random forests or other tree-based models.
The performance of a random forest can be evaluated using out-of-bag error and cross-validation techniques. Random forests often use random sampling with replacement from the original dataset to create each decision tree. This is also known as bootstrap sampling and forms a bootstrap forest. The data included in the bootstrap sample are referred to as in-the-bag, while the data not selected are out-of-bag. Since the out-of-bag data were not used to generate the decision tree, they can be used as an internal measure of the accuracy of the model. Cross-validation can be used to assess how well the results of a random forest model will generalize to an independent dataset. In this approach, the data are split into a training dataset used to generate the decision trees and build the model and a validation dataset used to evaluate the model’s performance. Evaluating the model on the independent validation dataset provides an estimate of how accurately the model will perform in practice and helps avoid problems such as overfitting or sampling bias. A good model performs well on
both the training data and the validation data.
The complex nature of the EM system made it difficult for the team to identify how various parameters influenced EM behavior. A bootstrap forest analysis was applied to the test dataset and was able to identify five key variables associated with higher probability of damage and/or anomalous behavior. The identified key variables provided a basis for further testing and redesign of the EM system. These results also provided essential insight to the investigation and aided in development of flight rationale for future use cases.
For information, contact Dr. Sara R. Wilson. sara.r.wilson@nasa.gov
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By NASA
2 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
ESI24 Nam Quadchart
SungWoo Nam
University of California, Irvine
Lunar dust may seem unimposing, but it presents a significant challenge for space missions. Its abrasive and jagged particles can damage equipment, clog devices, and even pose health risks to astronauts. This project addresses such issues by developing advanced coatings composed of crumpled nano-balls made from atomically thin 2D materials such as MoS₂, graphene, and MXenes. By crumpling these nanosheets—much like crumpling a piece of paper—we create compression and aggregation resistant particles that can be dispersed in sprayable solutions. As a thin film coating, these crumpled nano-balls form corrugated structures that passively reduce dust adhesion and surface wear. The deformable crumpled nano-ball (DCN) coating works by minimizing the contact area between lunar dust and surfaces, thanks to its unique nano-engineered design. The 2D materials exhibit exceptional durability, withstanding extreme thermal and vacuum environments, as well as resisting radiation damage. Additionally, the flexoelectric and electrostatically dissipative properties of MoS₂, graphene, and MXenes allow the coating to neutralize and dissipate electrical charges, making them highly responsive to the charged lunar dust environment. The project will be executed in three phases, each designed to bring the technology closer to real-world space applications. First, we will synthesize the crumpled nano-balls and investigate their adhesion properties using advanced microscopy techniques. The second phase will focus on fundamental testing in simulated lunar environments, where the coating will be exposed to extreme temperatures, vacuum, radiation, and abrasion. Finally, the third phase will involve applying the coating to space-heritage materials and conducting comprehensive testing in a simulated lunar environment, targeting up to 90% dust clearance and verifying durability over repeated cycles of dust exposure. This research aligns with NASA’s goals for safer, more sustainable lunar missions by reducing maintenance requirements and extending equipment lifespan. Moreover, the potential applications extend beyond space exploration, with the technology offering promising advances in terrestrial industries such as aerospace and electronics by providing ultra-durable, wear-resistant surfaces. Ultimately, the project contributes to advancing materials science and paving the way for NASA’s long-term vision of sustainable space exploration.
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By NASA
3 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
NASA Energy Program Manager for Facility Projects Wayne Thalasinos, left, stands with NASA Stennis Sustainability Team Lead Alvin Askew at the U.S. Department of Energy in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 30. The previous day, the Department of Energy announced NASA Stennis will receive a $1.95 million grant for an energy conservation project at the south Mississippi center. The Stennis Sustainability Team consists of NASA personnel and contract support. NASA members include Askew, Missy Ferguson and Teenia Perry. Contract members include Jordan McQueen (Synergy-Achieving Consolidated Operations and Maintenance); Michelle Bain (SACOM); Matt Medick (SACOM); Thomas Mitchell (SACOM); Lincoln Gros (SACOM), and Erik Tucker (Leidos). NASA Stennis NASA’s Stennis Space Center has been awarded a highly competitive U.S. Department of Energy grant to transform its main administration building into a facility that produces as much renewable energy as it uses.
Following an Oct. 29 announcement, NASA Stennis, located near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, will receive $1.95 million through the Assisting Federal Facilities with Energy Conservation Technologies (AFFECT) Program. The grant will fund installation of a four-acre solar panel array onsite that can generate up to 1 megawatt of electricity.
“This is a flagship project for our NASA center,” said NASA Stennis Director John Bailey. “It will provide renewable energy to help reduce our carbon footprint, contributing to NASA’s agencywide goal of zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.”
The AFFECT Program awards grants to help the federal government achieve its goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by all federal buildings by 2045. More than $1 billion in funding proposals was requested by federal agencies for the second, and final, phase of the initiative. A total of $149.87 million subsequently was awarded for 67 energy conservation and clean energy projects at federal facilities across 28 U.S. states and territories and in six international locations. NASA Stennis is the only agency in Mississippi to receive funding.
The site’s solar panel array will build on an $1.65 million energy conservation project already underway at the south Mississippi site to improve energy efficiency. The solar-generated electricity can be used in a number of ways, from powering facility lighting to running computers. The array also will connect to the electrical grid to allow any excess energy to be utilized elsewhere onsite.
“This solar panel addition will further enhance our energy efficiency,” said NASA Stennis Sustainability Team Lead Alvin Askew. “By locating the solar photovoltaic array by the Emergency Operations Center, it also has potential future benefits in providing backup power to that facility during outages.”
The NASA Stennis proposal was one of several submitted by NASA centers for agency consideration. Following an agency review process, NASA submitted multiple projects to the Department of Energy for grant consideration.
“This was a very competitive process, and I am proud of the NASA Stennis Sustainability Team,” NASA Stennis Center Operations Director Michael Tubbs said. “The team’s hard work in recent years and its commitment to continuous improvement in onsite energy conversation laid the groundwork to qualify for this grant. Mr. Askew, in particular, continues to be a leader in creative thinking, helping us meet agency sustainability goals.”
The NASA Stennis administration building was constructed in 2008 as a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design-certified, all-electric facility and currently has net-zero emissions.
For information about NASA’s Stennis Space Center, visit:
https://www.nasa.gov/stennis
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Last Updated Nov 14, 2024 EditorNASA Stennis CommunicationsContactC. Lacy Thompsoncalvin.l.thompson@nasa.gov / (228) 688-3333LocationStennis Space Center Related Terms
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By NASA
5 min read
NASA, ESA Missions Help Scientists Uncover How Solar Wind Gets Energy
Since the 1960s, astronomers have wondered how the Sun’s supersonic “solar wind,” a stream of energetic particles that flows out into the solar system, continues to receive energy once it leaves the Sun. Now, thanks to a lucky lineup of a NASA and an ESA (European Space Agency)/NASA spacecraft both currently studying the Sun, they may have discovered the answer — knowledge that is a crucial piece of the puzzle to help scientists better forecast solar activity between the Sun and Earth.
A paper published in the Aug. 30, 2024, issue of the journal Science provides persuasive evidence that the fastest solar winds are powered by magnetic “switchbacks,” or large kinks in the magnetic field, near the Sun.
“Our study addresses a huge open question about how the solar wind is energized and helps us understand how the Sun affects its environment and, ultimately, the Earth,” said Yeimy Rivera, co-leader of the study and a postdoctoral fellow at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, part of Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian. “If this process happens in our local star, it’s highly likely that this powers winds from other stars across the Milky Way galaxy and beyond and could have implications for the habitability of exoplanets.”
This artist’s concept shows switchbacks, or large kinks in the Sun’s magnetic field. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Conceptual Image Lab/Adriana Manrique Gutierrez Previously, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe found that these switchbacks were common throughout the solar wind. Parker, which became the first craft to enter the Sun’s magnetic atmosphere in 2021, allowed scientists to determine that switchbacks become more distinct and more powerful close to the Sun. Up to now, however, scientists lacked experimental evidence that this interesting phenomenon actually deposits enough energy to be important in the solar wind.
“About three years ago, I was giving a talk about how fascinating these waves are,” said co-author Mike Stevens, astrophysicist at the Center for Astrophysics. “At the end, an astronomy professor stood up and said, ‘that’s neat, but do they actually matter?’”
To answer this, the team of scientists had to use two different spacecraft. Parker is built to fly through the Sun’s atmosphere, or “corona.” ESA’s and NASA’s Solar Orbiter mission is also on an orbit that takes it relatively close to the Sun, and it measures solar wind at larger distances.
The discovery was made possible because of a coincidental alignment in February 2022 that allowed both Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter to measure the same solar wind stream within two days of each other. Solar Orbiter was almost halfway to the Sun while Parker was skirting the edge of the Sun’s magnetic atmosphere.
This conceptual image shows Parker Solar Probe about to enter the solar corona. NASA/Johns Hopkins APL/Ben Smith An artist’s concept shows Solar Orbiter near the Sun. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab
“We didn’t initially realize that Parker and Solar Orbiter were measuring the same thing at all. Parker saw this slower plasma near the Sun that was full of switchback waves, and then Solar Orbiter recorded a fast stream which had received heat and with very little wave activity,” said Samuel Badman, astrophysicist at the Center for Astrophysics and the other co-lead of the study. “When we connected the two, that was a real eureka moment.”
Scientists have long known that energy is moved throughout the Sun‘s corona and the solar wind, at least in part, through what are known as “Alfvén waves.” These waves transport energy through a plasma, the superheated state of matter that makes up the solar wind.
However, how much the Alfvén waves evolve and interact with the solar wind between the Sun and Earth couldn’t be measured — until these two missions were sent closer to the Sun than ever before, at the same time. Now, scientists can directly determine how much energy is stored in the magnetic and velocity fluctuations of these waves near the corona, and how much less energy is carried by the waves farther from the Sun.
The new research shows that the Alfvén waves in the form of switchbacks provide enough energy to account for the heating and acceleration documented in the faster stream of the solar wind as it flows away from the Sun.
“It took over half a century to confirm that Alfvenic wave acceleration and heating are important processes, and they happen in approximately the way we think they do,” said John Belcher, emeritus professor from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-discovered Alfvén waves in the solar wind but was not involved in this study.
In addition to helping scientists better forecast solar activity and space weather, such information helps us understand mysteries of the universe elsewhere and how Sun-like stars and stellar winds operate everywhere.
“This discovery is one of the key puzzle pieces to answer the 50-year-old question of how the solar wind is accelerated and heated in the innermost portions of the heliosphere, bringing us closer to closure to one of the main science objectives of the Parker Solar Probe mission,” said Adam Szabo, Parker Solar Probe mission science lead at NASA.
By Megan Watzke
Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian
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Last Updated Aug 30, 2024 Related Terms
Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Heliophysics Division Parker Solar Probe (PSP) Science & Research Science Mission Directorate Solar Flares Solar Orbiter Solar Science Solar Wind Space Weather The Sun The Sun & Solar Physics Explore More
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By NASA
Research astrophysicist Regina Caputo puzzles out how the universe works by studying the most extreme events in the cosmos.
Name: Regina Caputo
Title: Research Astrophysicist
Organization: Astroparticle Physics Laboratory (Code 661)
Regina Caputo is a research astrophysicist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. She focuses on technology development and support for gamma-ray telescopes.Photo credit: NASA/David Friedlander What do you do and what is most interesting about your role here at Goddard?
I’m a research astrophysicist in the particle astrophysics lab at Goddard. I’m really interested in the most extreme events that happen in the universe, so I work on current gamma-ray missions and develop technology for future gamma-ray telescopes.
The most exciting part of my work is trying to figure out how the universe works and how it got the way it is today.
What is your educational background?
In 2006, I got my bachelor’s degree in engineering physics from the Colorado School of Mines. Then, in 2011 I got my Ph.D. in particle physics from Stony Brook University.
I’ve always been inclined to bridge the gap between science and engineering, so my undergraduate education was where I learned to build things, develop instruments, and analyze data. Then, through my Ph.D. program, I started trying to understand the fundamental building blocks of matter. Eventually, I found my way to astro-particle physics. Particles on the ground are cool, but particles in space are even cooler!
What brought you to Goddard?
I arrived at Goddard in 2017, and I think it was a natural confluence of building telescopes, doing high energy astrophysics, and working in a collaborative environment.
What were the most exciting moments of your career?
I am very fortunate because there have been a couple exciting moments. I was a student working on CERN’s Large Hadron Collider when the Higgs Boson was discovered, so that was really exciting.
Then, after I had gotten into particle astrophysics, we discovered in 2017 that merging neutron stars created gravitational waves and gamma-ray bursts. Around the same time, we discovered an active galaxy that produced neutrinos with ultra-high-energy gamma-ray flares. This was like the birth of multi-messenger astrophysics, so it felt like a whole new era of discovery. I really felt like the universe was telling me something.
How does your work involve different teams?
I’m on a few different teams on different scales. On the science side, I’m a part of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) collaboration — an international group of scientists supporting Fermi, analyzing data, and doing science.
I’m also a Swift Observatory project scientist. I support the mission by making sure it’s fulfilling its obligations to the public and various stakeholders.
The technology development teams are the ones that I’m leading in preparation for a next-generation gamma-ray telescope. I have a group of postdocs, students, and other scientists — 10 or 15 people around the world. We are developing and characterizing silicon CMOS detectors, called AstroPix, to make sure that they meet our requirements, and think about the next steps to implement them in different experiments.
The other team, called Compton-Pair Telescope (ComPair), built a prototype gamma-ray telescope that was launched as a balloon payload last summer. Right now, we’re working on the next generation of it.
Regina Caputo at the August 2023 ComPair balloon launch in Fort Sumter, New Mexico. ComPair is a prototype gamma-ray telescope that can measure and detect gamma-rays.Photo courtesy of Regina Caputo What is challenging about your position?
I think one of the most challenging things is communicating effectively with an international group of people. You have to be like an events coordinator to make sure people have the resources they need.
What role do you serve for early career scientists?
I think it’s really important that scientists think about the next generation of scientists and technically minded people. It’s really important to me to make sure that we are giving junior folks the field opportunities they need to achieve their goals.
What science outreach do you do?
I really enjoy science outreach, so I like to jump in whenever there’s an opportunity — like Black Hole Week, career days, or public talks. I like to be able to say, “Hey, you’re paying us to explore the universe — here’s what we found!”
What goals do you have for the future?
It would be so cool to see the detectors we develop to be in a next-generation gamma-ray telescope that flies and takes data. It’s a hard goal, but hey, I shoot for the stars.
By Laine Havens
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.
Conversations With Goddard is a collection of Q&A profiles highlighting the breadth and depth of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center’s talented and diverse workforce. The Conversations have been published twice a month on average since May 2011. Read past editions on Goddard’s “Our People” webpage.
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Last Updated Aug 09, 2024 EditorMadison OlsonContactRob Garnerrob.garner@nasa.govLocationGoddard Space Flight Center Related Terms
People of Goddard Astrophysics Goddard Space Flight Center People of NASA The Universe Explore More
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