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NASA Analysis Shows Irreversible Sea Level Rise for Pacific Islands


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Overhead view of Pacific Island nation Kiribati
Pacific Island nations such as Kiribati — a low-lying country in the southern Pacific Ocean — are preparing now for a future of higher sea levels.
NASA Earth Observatory

Climate change is rapidly reshaping a region of the world that’s home to millions of people.

In the next 30 years, Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 8 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise, according to an analysis by NASA’s sea level change science team. This amount of rise will occur regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions change in the coming years.

The sea level change team undertook the analysis of this region at the request of several Pacific Island nations, including Tuvalu and Kiribati, and in close coordination with the U.S. Department of State.

In addition to the overall analysis, the agency’s sea level team produced high-resolution maps showing which areas of different Pacific Island nations will be vulnerable to high-tide flooding — otherwise known as nuisance flooding or sunny day flooding — by the 2050s. Released on Sept. 23, the maps outline flooding potential in a range of emissions scenarios, from best-case to business-as-usual to worst-case.

“Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs ocean physics programs for NASA’s Earth Science Division. “NASA’s new flood tool tells you what the potential increase in flooding frequency and severity look like in the next decades for the coastal communities of the Pacific Island nations.”

Team members, led by researchers at the University of Hawaii and in collaboration with scientists at the University of Colorado and Virginia Tech, started with flood maps of Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji, Nauru, and Niue. They plan to build high-resolution maps for other Pacific Island nations in the near future. The maps can assist Pacific Island nations in deciding where to focus mitigation efforts.

“Science and data can help the community of Tuvalu in relaying accurate sea level rise projections,” said Grace Malie, a youth leader from Tuvalu who is involved with the Rising Nations Initiative, a United Nations-supported program led by Pacific Island nations to help preserve their statehood and protect the rights and heritage of populations affected by climate change. “This will also help with early warning systems, which is something that our country is focusing on at the moment.”

Future Flooding

The analysis by the sea level change team also found that the number of high-tide flooding days in an average year will increase by an order of magnitude for nearly all Pacific Island nations by the 2050s. Portions of the NASA team’s analysis were included in a sea level rise report published by the United Nations in August 2024.  

Areas of Tuvalu that currently see less than five high-tide flood days a year could average 25 flood days annually by the 2050s. Regions of Kiribati that see fewer than five flood days a year today will experience an average of 65 flood days annually by the 2050s.

“I am living the reality of climate change,” said Malie. “Everyone (in Tuvalu) lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this.” 

Flooding on island nations can come from the ocean inundating land during storms or during exceptionally high tides, called king tides. But it can also result when saltwater intrudes into underground areas and pushes the water table to the surface. “There are points on the island where we will see seawater bubbling from beneath the surface and heavily flooding the area,” Malie added.

Matter of Location

Sea level rise doesn’t occur uniformly around the world. A combination of global and local conditions, such as the topography of a coastline and how glacial meltwater is distributed in the ocean, affects the amount of rise a particular region will experience.

“We’re always focused on the differences in sea level rise from one region to another, but in the Pacific, the numbers are surprisingly consistent,” said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and the agency’s sea level change science team lead.

The impacts of 8 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise will vary from country to country. For instance, some nations could experience nuisance flooding several times a year at their airport, while others might face frequent neighborhood flooding equivalent to being inundated for nearly half the year.

Researchers would like to combine satellite data on ocean levels with ground-based measurements of sea levels at specific points, as well as with better land elevation information. “But there’s a real lack of on-the-ground data in these countries,” said Hamlington. The combination of space-based and ground-based measurements can yield more precise sea level rise projections and improved understanding of the impacts to countries in the Pacific.  

“The future of the young people of Tuvalu is already at stake,” said Malie. “Climate change is more than an environmental crisis. It is about justice, survival for nations like Tuvalu, and global responsibility.”

To explore the high-tide flooding maps for Pacific Island nations, go to:

https://sealevel.nasa.gov

News Media Contacts

Jane J. Lee / Andrew Wang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-0307 / 626-379-6874
jane.j.lee@jpl.nasa.gov / andrew.wang@jpl.nasa.gov

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      The meager growth so far in 2024 prolongs a recent downward trend. Prior to 2014, sea ice in the Antarctic was increasing slightly by about 1% per decade. Following a spike in 2014, ice growth has fallen dramatically. Scientists are working to understand the cause of this reversal. The recurring loss hints at a long-term shift in conditions in the Southern Ocean, likely resulting from global climate change. 
      “While changes in sea ice have been dramatic in the Arctic over several decades, Antarctic sea ice was relatively stable. But that has changed,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NSIDC. “It appears that global warming has come to the Southern Ocean.”
      In both the Arctic and Antarctic, ice loss compounds ice loss. This is due to the fact that while bright sea ice reflects most of the Sun’s energy back to space, open ocean water absorbs 90% of it. With more of the ocean exposed to sunlight, water temperatures rise, further delaying sea ice growth. This cycle of reinforced warming is called ice-albedo feedback.
      Overall, the loss of sea ice increases heat in the Arctic, where temperatures have risen about four times the global average, Kurtz said.
      About the Author
      Sally Younger
      Senior Science Writer
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      Last Updated Sep 24, 2024 LocationGoddard Space Flight Center Related Terms
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      A Hampton, Virginia, street is flooded by an exceptionally high tide in 2020. Rising seas could make high-tide flooding much more common in coastal communities around the world.Aileen Devlin/Virginia Sea Grant CC BY-ND 2.0 Designed to be user-friendly, the resource contains the latest sea level data, explainers, and other information from several U.S. agencies.
      The U.S. Interagency Task Force on Sea Level Change launched the U.S. Sea Level Change website on Monday, Sept. 23. Designed to help communities prepare for rising seas, the site features the latest science on changing sea levels, details about the impact on the environment and coastal communities, and strategies to mitigate the consequences. NASA led the development of the website for the task force.
      “NASA, together with our partner agencies, has studied climate change and Earth’s rising seas for decades,” said Karen St. Germain, director of the Earth Science Division at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “The data collected by our satellites and ground-based instruments is crucial to helping policymakers and communities prepare for the consequences of sea level rise. By combining NASA data with information from other federal agencies, the U.S. Sea Level Change website is the latest example of government working for the benefit of humanity.”
      Demonstrating a whole-of-government approach, the sea level task force sits within the U.S. Global Change Research Program and includes leading researchers from NASA, the Department of Defense, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey.
      They’ve designed a user-friendly hub that brings together information on sea level change from the various federal agencies. While being detailed and accurate for resource managers, researchers, and others seeking more technical information, the website is intended to be accessible to anyone interested in the latest science and strategies to cope with rising seas.
      “Everyone will have access to accurate sea level and flooding information in their favorite U.S. coastal city and see the timing of the projected increase in water levels and flooding frequency,” added Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs NASA’s sea level change team as well as the ocean physics program at the agency’s headquarters in Washington.
      The contributing federal agencies focus on different aspects of sea level rise, including basic scientific research and the effects of rising seas on the environment, as well as infrastructure. With the new site, users can explore the topic from different angles.
      “Having this information in one place, delivered in a consistent and authoritative way through a true interagency effort, represents a big step forward for how the federal government helps coastal communities prepare for future sea level rise,” said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.
      Site visitors can find explainers on sea level science, summaries of what rising seas will look like for various parts of U.S. coastlines, and updates to the 2022 interagency report on sea level rise. The report concluded that U.S. coastlines will experience an average of 10 to 12 inches (25 to 30 centimeters) of rise above current sea levels by 2050 and that the amount of rise in the next 30 years could equal the total rise seen over the past 100 years.
      The report also outlined near-term sea level rise under various levels of greenhouse gas emissions, from best-case to business-as-usual to worst-case scenarios. The scenarios are based on improved scientific understanding of how melting glaciers and ice sheets — as well as upward and downward vertical land motion — will affect ocean heights at our coasts. The data and scenarios have been updated for the task force website.
      NASA contributions to the 2022 interagency report, as well as to the newly launched sea level website, are part of ongoing agency work to understand Earth’s rising seas. NASA’s efforts to monitor the ocean span more than 30 years and include satellites such as Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich and the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. Both were jointly developed by the agency and international and domestic partners. Agency partners on Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich include ESA (European Space Agency), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and NOAA. For SWOT, NASA partners include the French space agency CNES (Centre National d’Études Spatiales), CSA (the Canadian Space Agency), and the UK Space Agency.
      For more on how NASA studies our home planet, see:
      http://www.nasa.gov/earth
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      Last Updated Sep 24, 2024 Related Terms
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