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By NASA
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Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
This bar graph shows GISTEMP summer global temperature anomalies for 2023 (shown in yellow) and 2024 (shown in red). June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The white lines indicate the range of estimated temperatures. The warmer-than-usual summers continue a long-term trend of warming, driven primarily by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. NASA/Peter Jacobs The agency also shared new state-of-the-art datasets that allow scientists to track Earth’s temperature for any month and region going back to 1880 with greater certainty.
August 2024 set a new monthly temperature record, capping Earth’s hottest summer since global records began in 1880, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The announcement comes as a new analysis upholds confidence in the agency’s nearly 145-year-old temperature record.
June, July, and August 2024 combined were about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (about 0.1 degrees Celsius) warmer globally than any other summer in NASA’s record — narrowly topping the record just set in 2023. Summer of 2024 was 2.25 F (1.25 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980, and August alone was 2.34 F (1.3 C) warmer than average. June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
“Data from multiple record-keepers show that the warming of the past two years may be neck and neck, but it is well above anything seen in years prior, including strong El Niño years,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS. “This is a clear indication of the ongoing human-driven warming of the climate.”
NASA assembles its temperature record, known as the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), from surface air temperature data acquired by tens of thousands of meteorological stations, as well as sea surface temperatures from ship- and buoy-based instruments. It also includes measurements from Antarctica. Analytical methods consider the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could skew the calculations.
The GISTEMP analysis calculates temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperature. A temperature anomaly shows how far the temperature has departed from the 1951 to 1980 base average.
New assessment of temperature record
The summer record comes as new research from scientists at the Colorado School of Mines, National Science Foundation, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA), and NASA further increases confidence in the agency’s global and regional temperature data.
“Our goal was to actually quantify how good of a temperature estimate we’re making for any given time or place,” said lead author Nathan Lenssen, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines and project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
This visualization of GISTEMP monthly temperatures with the seasonal cycle derived from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s MERRA-2 model compares 2023 (in red) and 2024 (in purple), with a transparent ribbon around each indicating the confidence intervals from the new GISTEMP uncertainty calculation. The white lines show monthly temperatures from the years 1961 to 2022. June, July, and August 2024 combined were about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (about 0.1 degrees Celsius) warmer globally than any other summer in NASA’s record — narrowly topping the record set in 2023.NASA/Peter Jacobs/Katy Mersmann The researchers affirmed that GISTEMP is correctly capturing rising surface temperatures on our planet and that Earth’s global temperature increase since the late 19th century — summer 2024 was about 2.7 F (1.51 C) warmer than the late 1800s — cannot be explained by any uncertainty or error in the data.
The authors built on previous work showing that NASA’s estimate of global mean temperature rise is likely accurate to within a tenth of a degree Fahrenheit in recent decades. For their latest analysis, Lenssen and colleagues examined the data for individual regions and for every month going back to 1880.
Estimating the unknown
Lenssen and colleagues provided a rigorous accounting of statistical uncertainty within the GISTEMP record. Uncertainty in science is important to understand because we cannot take measurements everywhere. Knowing the strengths and limitations of observations helps scientists assess if they’re really seeing a shift or change in the world.
The study confirmed that one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in the GISTEMP record is localized changes around meteorological stations. For example, a previously rural station may report higher temperatures as asphalt and other heat-trapping urban surfaces develop around it. Spatial gaps between stations also contribute some uncertainty in the record. GISTEMP accounts for these gaps using estimates from the closest stations.
Previously, scientists using GISTEMP estimated historical temperatures using what’s known in statistics as a confidence interval — a range of values around a measurement, often read as a specific temperature plus or minus a few fractions of degrees. The new approach uses a method known as a statistical ensemble: a spread of the 200 most probable values. While a confidence interval represents a level of certainty around a single data point, an ensemble tries to capture the whole range of possibilities.
The distinction between the two methods is meaningful to scientists tracking how temperatures have changed, especially where there are spatial gaps. For example: Say GISTEMP contains thermometer readings from Denver in July 1900, and a researcher needs to estimate what conditions were 100 miles away. Instead of reporting the Denver temperature plus or minus a few degrees, the researcher can analyze scores of equally probable values for southern Colorado and communicate the uncertainty in their results.
What does this mean for recent heat rankings?
Every year, NASA scientists use GISTEMP to provide an annual global temperature update, with 2023 ranking as the hottest year to date.
Other researchers affirmed this finding, including NOAA and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. These institutions employ different, independent methods to assess Earth’s temperature. Copernicus, for instance, uses an advanced computer-generated approach known as reanalysis.
The records remain in broad agreement but can differ in some specific findings. Copernicus determined that July 2023 was Earth’s hottest month on record, for example, while NASA found July 2024 had a narrow edge. The new ensemble analysis has now shown that the difference between the two months is smaller than the uncertainties in the data. In other words, they are effectively tied for hottest. Within the larger historical record the new ensemble estimates for summer 2024 were likely 2.52-2.86 degrees F (1.40-1.59 degrees C) warmer than the late 19th century, while 2023 was likely 2.34-2.68 degrees F (1.30-1.49 degrees C) warmer.
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By NASA
NASA research mathematician Katherine Johnson is photographed at her desk at NASA Langley Research Center with a globe, or “Celestial Training Device,” in 1962. Credit: NASA / Langley Research Center NASA Administrator Bill Nelson will represent the agency during a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony at 3 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Sept. 18, recognizing the women who contributed to the space race, including the NASA mathematicians who helped land the first astronauts on the Moon under the agency’s Apollo Program.
Hosted by House Speaker Mike Johnson, the Congressional Gold Medal Ceremony will take place inside Emancipation Hall at the U.S. Capitol in Washington. Nelson is expected to be among the speakers.
The event will stream live on the speaker’s YouTube channel. The agency will share a direct link on this advisory in advance of the event.
Media without current congressional credentials on the Hill interested in participating in the event must RSVP by Sept. 13, to Abby Ronson at: abby.ronson@mail.house.gov.
Medal Information
Introduced by Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson on Feb. 27, 2019, H.R.1396 – Hidden Figures Congressional Gold Medal Act – was signed into law later that year. Awards will include:
Congressional Gold Medal to Katherine Johnson, in recognition of her service to the United States as a mathematician Congressional Gold Medal to Dr. Christine Darden, for her service to the United States as an aeronautical engineer Congressional Gold Medals in commemoration of the lives of Dorothy Vaughan and Mary Jackson, in recognition of their service to the United States during the space race Congressional Gold Medal in recognition of all the women who served as computers, mathematicians, and engineers at the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics and NASA between the 1930s and the 1970s. For more information about NASA missions, visit:
https://www.nasa.gov
-end-
Meira Bernstein / Cheryl Warner
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1600
meira.b.bernstein@nasa.gov / cheryl.m.warner@nasa.gov
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By NASA
Learn Home NASA Summer Camp Inspires… Earth Science Overview Learning Resources Science Activation Teams SME Map Opportunities More Science Stories Science Activation Highlights Citizen Science 2 min read
NASA Summer Camp Inspires Future Climate Leaders
From July 15-19, 2024, the Coastal Equity and Resilience Hub at the Georgia Institute of Technology collaborated with the University of Georgia (UGA) Marine Extension and Georgia Sea Grant to host a week-long NASA Sea Level Changemakers Summer Camp. The camp introduced 14 rising 7th-8th graders to how coastal areas are changing due to sea level rise. Set at the UGA Marine Education Center and Aquarium on Skidaway Island, the camp offered students hands-on activities and outdoor educational experiences, where they analyzed real data collected by NASA scientists and learned about community adaptations to flooding. Students interacted with experts from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, UGA, and Georgia Tech, gaining insights into satellite observations, green infrastructure, environmental sensors, and careers related to sea level rise. The camp also included a visit to the Pin Point Heritage Museum, where students engaged with leaders from the historic Gullah Geechee community of Pin Point. The camp concluded with a boat trip to Wassaw Island, where students observed the effects of sea level rise on an undeveloped barrier island and compared these observations with earlier findings from urban environments. Funding from the NASA’s Science Activation Program and its Sea Level Education, Awareness, and Literacy (SEAL) team ensured that the camp was accessible to all students, eliminating financial barriers for groups traditionally underrepresented in STEM education.
“This investment from NASA has provided an amazing opportunity for youth in coastal Georgia to utilize NASA data and resources on a critical issue affecting their communities,” said Jill Gambill, executive director of the Coastal Equity and Resilience (CEAR) Hub at Georgia Tech. “They have more confidence now in their knowledge of sea level rise and potential solutions.”
The Sea Level Education, Awareness, and Literacy (SEAL) team is supported by NASA under cooperative agreement award number NNH21ZDA001N-SCIACT and is part of NASA’s Science Activation Portfolio. Learn more about how Science Activation connects NASA science experts, real content, and experiences with community leaders to do science in ways that activate minds and promote deeper understanding of our world and beyond: https://science.nasa.gov/learn
Participants of the 2024 NASA Sea Level Changemakers Summer Camp in Savannah, GA Share
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