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Tundra Vegetation to Grow Taller, Greener Through 2100, NASA Study Finds


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Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)

Warming global climate is changing the vegetation structure of forests in the far north. It’s a trend that will continue at least through the end of this century, according to NASA researchers. The change in forest structure could absorb more of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, or increase permafrost thawing, resulting in the release of ancient carbon. Millions of data points from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2) and Landsat missions helped inform this latest research, which will be used to refine climate forecasting computer models.

A landscape image. In the foreground on the left side of the image is a single small evergreen tree, with pine needles only at the top of the tree. The rest of the foreground is mostly a green/brown grass. The background shows some extending landscapes, but primarily is taken up by the sky, a light blue color that is covered by white and gray puffy clouds.
Landscape at Murphy Dome fire scar, outside of Fairbanks, Alaska, during the Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) in August 2022.
Credit: NASA/Katie Jepson

Tundra landscapes are getting taller and greener. With the warming climate, the vegetation of forests in the far north is changing as more trees and shrubs appear. These shifts in the vegetation structure of boreal forests and tundra will continue for at least the next 80 years, according to NASA scientists in a recently published study.

Boreal forests generally grow between 50 and 60 degrees north latitude, covering large parts of Alaska, Canada, Scandinavia, and Russia. The biome is home to evergreens such as pine, spruce, and fir. Farther north, the permafrost and short growing season of the tundra biome have historically made it hard to support large trees or dense forests. The vegetation in those regions has instead been made up of shrubs, mosses, and grasses.

The boundary between the two biomes is difficult to discern. Previous studies have found high-latitude plant growth increasing and moving northward into areas that earlier were sparsely covered in the shrubs and grasses of the tundra. Now, the new NASA-led study finds an increased presence of trees and shrubs in those tundra regions and adjacent transitional forests, where boreal regions and tundra meet. This is predicted to continue until at least the end of the century.

A rendered map of the northern United States and Canada. The ocean is depicted as a light blue, while most of the land is depicted in grayscale. Data is overlayed onto the image in splotches of purple and green. A scale is at the bottom of the image, with a label stating Change in Tree Canopy Cover 1984-2020
Data from the study depicted on a map of Alaska and Northern Canada highlighting the change in tree canopy cover extending into transitional landscapes. In boreal North America, the largest increases in canopy cover (dark green) have occurred in transitional tundra landscapes. These landscapes are found along the cold, northern extent of the study area and have historically supported mostly shrubs, mosses, and grasses.
Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/Wanmei Liang

“The results from this study advance a growing body of work that recognizes a shift in vegetation patterns within the boreal forest biome,” said Paul Montesano, lead author for the paper and research scientist at NASA Goddard’s Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “We’ve used satellite data to track the increased vegetation growth in this biome since 1984, and we found that it’s similar to what computer models predict for the decades to come. This paints a picture of continued change for the next 80 or so years that is particularly strong in transitional forests.”

Scientists found predictions of “positive median height changes” in all tundra landscapes and transitional – between boreal and tundra – forests featured in this study. This suggests trees and shrubs will be both larger and more abundant in areas where they are currently sparse.

“The increase of vegetation that corresponds with the shift can potentially offset some of the impact of rising CO2 emissions by absorbing more CO2 through photosynthesis,” said study co-author Chris Neigh, NASA’s Landsat 8 and 9 project scientist at Goddard. Carbon absorbed through this process would then be stored in the trees, shrubs, and soil.

The change in forest structure may also cause permafrost areas to thaw as more sunlight is absorbed by the darker colored vegetation. This could release CO2 and methane that has been stored in the soil for thousands of years.

In their paper published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment in May, NASA scientists described the mixture of satellite data, machine learning, climate variables, and climate models they used to model and predict how the forest structure will look for years to come. Specifically, they analyzed nearly 20 million data points from NASA’s ICESat-2. They then matched these data points with tens of thousands of scenes of North American boreal forests between 1984 to 2020 from Landsat, a joint mission of NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey. Advanced computing capabilities are required to create models with such large quantities of data, which are called “big data” projects.

An image taken from the viewpoint of the plane. The image is mostly showing a green landscape below, with strands of rivers and lakes interspersing the land.
Flight over the boreal landscapes of Fairbanks, Alaska, during the ABoVE field campaign in August 2022.
Credit: NASA/Sofie Bates

The ICESat-2 mission uses a laser instrument called lidar to measure the height of Earth’s surface features (like ice sheets or trees) from the vantage point of space. In the study, the authors examined these measurements of vegetation height in the far north to understand what the current boreal forest structure looks like. Scientists then modeled several future climate scenarios — adjusting to different scenarios for temperature and precipitation — to show what forest structure may look like in response.

“Our climate is changing and, as it changes, it affects almost everything in nature,” said Melanie Frost, remote sensing scientist at NASA Goddard. “It’s important for scientists to understand how things are changing and use that knowledge to inform our climate models.”

By Erica McNamee

NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

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Aug 06, 2024
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      Alise Fisher
      Headquarters, Washington
      202-358-2546
      Alise.m.fisher@nasa.gov
      Headquarters, Washington
      202-358-2546
      Alise.m.fisher@nasa.gov
      Corinne Beckinger 
      Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala. 
      256-544-0034  
      corinne.m.beckinger@nasa.gov 
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      Last Updated Dec 20, 2024 EditorBeth RidgewayContactCorinne M. Beckingercorinne.m.beckinger@nasa.govLocationMarshall Space Flight Center Related Terms
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    • By NASA
      NASA-supported scientists have suggested an updated framework for the role of ferns in environmental recovery from disaster. Instead of competing with other organisms, ferns may act as facilitators that ease the way for other plants and animals to re-establish themselves in a damaged landscape.
      The study examines how a biosphere recovers from major upheaval, be it from wildfires or asteroid impacts, using what scientists call a ‘facilitative’ framework (where the actions of organisms help each other) rather than the long-held ‘competition-based’ framework. 
      NASA supported researchers at a fossil plant quarry near the Old Raton Pass Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary in New Mexico.Ellen Currano Ferns are a common type of vascular plant found in woodlands, gardens, and many a plant pot on apartment shelves. Unlike many other vascular plants, ferns do not flower or seed. Instead, they reproduce via spores. Ferns first appeared on Earth some 360 million years ago during the Devonian period and, prior to the evolution of flowering plants, were the most common vascular plant on Earth.
      Ferns are often one of the first plants to re-establish in areas affected by large-scale upheaval events, and it has been suggested that this is because ferns produce spores in great amounts that are widely distributed on the wind. Some scientists, particularly in the fields of geology and paleontology, have used this ‘competitive’ success of ferns as a foundation for ecological theories about how recolonization happens after upheavals.
      However, in recent years, growing research has shown that recovery is not only about competition. Positive interactions, known as facilitation, between ferns and other species also play a significant role. The authors of the recent study believe that it is time to re-examine positive interactions within ecosystems, rather than defaulting to a competition framework.  
      Ferns in History
      “I love to imagine ecosystems through time and play a game in my head where I ask myself, ’if I could stand here for 1 million years, would this fossilize?’” said lead author Lauren Azevedo Schmidt of the University of California at Davis. “Because of the mental time gymnastics I do, my research questions follow the same pathway. How do I create synergy between modern and paleo research?”
      Early Paleocene fern fossil discovered on the Vermejo Park Ranch, NM. Photo by Ellen Currano.Ellen Currano The team examined ideas that have been developed based on observing modern organisms as well as ancient populations in the fossil record. They propose that, rather than out-competing other species, ferns act as facilitators for ecosystem recovery by stabilizing the ground, enhancing properties of the soil, and mediating competition between other organisms. This repositions ferns as facilitators of ecological recovery within disturbed habitats. This has broad implications for understanding how a community recovers and the importance of positive interactions following disturbance events. Because ferns are among the oldest lineages of plants on Earth and have experienced unimaginable climates and extinction events, they provide critical information to better understand the fossil record and Earth before humans.
      Fossil plant excavation in the Cretaceous rocks just below the K-Pg boundary at Old Raton Pass, NM. Photo by Ellen Currano.Ellen Currano “The Cretaceous – Paleogene [K-Pg] extinction event reworked Earth’s biosphere, resulting in approximately 75% of species going extinct, with up to 90% of plants going extinct,” said Azevedo Schmidt. “This magnitude of devastation is something humans (luckily) have never had to deal with, making it hard to even think about. But it is something we must consider when tackling research/issues surrounding exobiology.” 
      The longevity of ferns on Earth provides a view into the evolution of life on Earth, even through some of the planet’s most devastating disasters. This is of interest to astrobiology and exobiology because exploring how environmental factors can and have impacted the large-scale evolution of life on Earth through mass extinctions and mass radiation events can help us understand the potential for the origin, evolution and distribution for life elsewhere in the Universe.   
      Ferns in Space
      In addition to their relevance to astrobiology, the resilience of ferns and their ability to help heal a damaged environment could also make them important partners for future human missions in space. NASA’s Space Biology program has supported experiments to study how plants adapt to space with the expectation that knowledge gained can lead to ways by which crops can be cultivated for fresh food. Lessons learned from studying resilient plants, such as ferns, could guide efforts to make crops adapt better to harsh space conditions so they can serve as a reliable food source as humans explore destinations beyond our planet. Previous studies have also looked at how plants might keep air clean in enclosed spaces like the International Space Station or in habitats on the Moon or Mars.
      NASA supported scientists can be seen prospecting for plant fossils in Berwind Canyon, CO. Photo by Ellen Currano.Ellen Currano “Ferns were able to completely transform Earth’s biosphere following the devastation of the K-Pg [Cretaceous–Paleogene] extinction event. The environment experienced continental-scale fires, acid rain, and nuclear winter, but ferns were able to tolerate unbelievable stress and make their environment better,” says Azevedo Schmidt. “I think we can all learn something from the mighty ferns.”  
      The study, “Ferns as facilitators of community recovery following biotic upheaval,” was published in the journal BioScience [doi:10.1093/biosci/biae022]
      For more information on NASA’s Astrobiology program, visit:
      https://www.science.nasa.gov/astrobiology
      -end-
      Karen Fox / Molly Wasser
      Headquarters, Washington
      202-358-1600
      karen.c.fox@nasa.gov / molly.l.wasser@nasa.gov 
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    • By NASA
      3 min read
      Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
      LISTER (Lunar Instrumentation for Subsurface Thermal Exploration with Rapidity) is one of 10 payloads flying aboard the next delivery for NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative. The instrument is equipped with a drilling system and thermal probe designed to dig into the lunar surface. Photo courtesy: Firefly Aerospace Earth’s nearest neighboring body in the solar system is its Moon, yet to date humans have physically explored just 5% of its surface. It wasn’t until 2023 – building on Apollo-era data and more detailed studies made in 2011-2012 by NASA’s automated GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) mission – that researchers conclusively determined that the Moon has a liquid outer core surrounding a solid inner core.
      As NASA and its industry partners plan for continued exploration of the Moon under Artemis in preparation for future long-duration missions to Mars, improving our understanding of Earth’s 4.5-billion-year-old Moon will help teams of researchers and astronauts find the safest ways to study and live and work on the lunar surface.
      That improved understanding is  the primary goal of a state-of-the-art science instrument called LISTER (Lunar Instrumentation for Subsurface Thermal Exploration with Rapidity), one of 10 NASA payloads flying aboard the next delivery for the agency’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative and set to be carried to the surface by Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost 1 lunar lander.
      Developed jointly by Texas Tech University in Lubbock and Honeybee Robotics of Altadena, California, LISTER will measure the flow of heat from the Moon’s interior. Its sophisticated pneumatic drill will penetrate to a depth of three meters into the dusty lunar regolith. Every half-meter it descends, the drilling system will pause and extend a custom-built thermal probe into the lunar regolith. LISTER will measure two different aspects of heat flow: thermal gradient, or the changes in temperature at various depths, and thermal conductivity, or the subsurface material’s ability to let heat pass through it.
      “By making similar measurements at multiple locations on the lunar surface, we can reconstruct the thermal evolution of the Moon,” said Dr. Seiichi Nagihara, principal investigator for the mission and a geophysics professor at Texas Tech. “That will permit scientists to retrace the geological processes that shaped the Moon from its start as a ball of molten rock, which gradually cooled off by releasing its internal heat into space.”
      Demonstrating the drill’s effectiveness could lead to more innovative drilling capabilities, enabling future exploration of the Moon, Mars, and other celestial bodies.. The science collected by LISTER aims to contribute to our knowledge of lunar geology, improving our ability to establish a long-term presence on the Moon under the Artemis campaign.
      Under the CLPS model, NASA is investing in commercial delivery services to the Moon to enable industry growth and support long-term lunar exploration. As a primary customer for CLPS deliveries, NASA aims to be one of many customers on future flights. NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, manages the development of seven of the 10 CLPS payloads carried on Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander.
      Learn more about CLPS and Artemis at:
      https://www.nasa.gov/clps
      Alise Fisher
      Headquarters, Washington
      202-358-2546
      Alise.m.fisher@nasa.gov
      Corinne Beckinger 
      Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala. 
      256-544-0034  
      corinne.m.beckinger@nasa.gov 
      Share
      Details
      Last Updated Dec 18, 2024 EditorBeth RidgewayContactCorinne M. Beckingercorinne.m.beckinger@nasa.govLocationMarshall Space Flight Center Related Terms
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