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By NASA
Download PDF: Statistical Analysis Using Random Forest Algorithm Provides Key Insights into Parachute Energy Modulator System
Energy modulators (EM), also known as energy absorbers, are safety-critical components that are used to control shocks and impulses in a load path. EMs are textile devices typically manufactured out of nylon, Kevlar® and other materials, and control loads by breaking rows of stitches that bind a strong base webbing together as shown in Figure 1. A familiar EM application is a fall-protection harness used by workers to prevent injury from shock loads when the harness arrests a fall. EMs are also widely used in parachute systems to control shock loads experienced during the various stages of parachute system deployment.
Random forest is an innovative algorithm for data classification used in statistics and machine learning. It is an easy to use and highly flexible ensemble learning method. The random forest algorithm is capable of modeling both categorical and continuous data and can handle large datasets, making it applicable in many situations. It also makes it easy to evaluate the relative importance of variables and maintains accuracy even when a dataset has missing values.
Random forests model the relationship between a response variable and a set of predictor or independent variables by creating a collection of decision trees. Each decision tree is built from a random sample of the data. The individual trees are then combined through methods such as averaging or voting to determine the final prediction (Figure 2). A decision tree is a non-parametric supervised learning algorithm that partitions the data using a series of branching binary decisions. Decision trees inherently identify key features of the data and provide a ranking of the contribution of each feature based on when it becomes relevant. This capability can be used to determine the relative importance of the input variables (Figure 3). Decision trees are useful for exploring relationships but can have poor accuracy unless they are combined into random forests or other tree-based models.
The performance of a random forest can be evaluated using out-of-bag error and cross-validation techniques. Random forests often use random sampling with replacement from the original dataset to create each decision tree. This is also known as bootstrap sampling and forms a bootstrap forest. The data included in the bootstrap sample are referred to as in-the-bag, while the data not selected are out-of-bag. Since the out-of-bag data were not used to generate the decision tree, they can be used as an internal measure of the accuracy of the model. Cross-validation can be used to assess how well the results of a random forest model will generalize to an independent dataset. In this approach, the data are split into a training dataset used to generate the decision trees and build the model and a validation dataset used to evaluate the model’s performance. Evaluating the model on the independent validation dataset provides an estimate of how accurately the model will perform in practice and helps avoid problems such as overfitting or sampling bias. A good model performs well on
both the training data and the validation data.
The complex nature of the EM system made it difficult for the team to identify how various parameters influenced EM behavior. A bootstrap forest analysis was applied to the test dataset and was able to identify five key variables associated with higher probability of damage and/or anomalous behavior. The identified key variables provided a basis for further testing and redesign of the EM system. These results also provided essential insight to the investigation and aided in development of flight rationale for future use cases.
For information, contact Dr. Sara R. Wilson. sara.r.wilson@nasa.gov
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By European Space Agency
Our understanding of planet formation in the Universe’s early days is challenged by new data from the NASA/ESA/CSA James Webb Space Telescope. Webb solved a puzzle by proving a controversial finding made with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope more than 20 years ago.
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By NASA
Webb Webb News Latest News Latest Images Blog (offsite) Awards X (offsite – login reqd) Instagram (offsite – login reqd) Facebook (offsite- login reqd) Youtube (offsite) Overview About Who is James Webb? Fact Sheet Impacts+Benefits FAQ Science Overview and Goals Early Universe Galaxies Over Time Star Lifecycle Other Worlds Observatory Overview Launch Orbit Mirrors Sunshield Instrument: NIRCam Instrument: MIRI Instrument: NIRSpec Instrument: FGS/NIRISS Optical Telescope Element Backplane Spacecraft Bus Instrument Module Multimedia About Webb Images Images Videos What is Webb Observing? 3d Webb in 3d Solar System Podcasts Webb Image Sonifications Team International Team People Of Webb More For the Media For Scientists For Educators For Fun/Learning 7 Min Read NASA’s Webb Finds Planet-Forming Disks Lived Longer in Early Universe
This is a James Webb Space Telescope image of NGC 346, a massive star cluster in the Small Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf galaxy that is one of the Milky Way’s nearest neighbors. Credits:
NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Olivia C. Jones (UK ATC), Guido De Marchi (ESTEC), Margaret Meixner (USRA) NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope just solved a conundrum by proving a controversial finding made with the agency’s Hubble Space Telescope more than 20 years ago.
In 2003, Hubble provided evidence of a massive planet around a very old star, almost as old as the universe. Such stars possess only small amounts of heavier elements that are the building blocks of planets. This implied that some planet formation happened when our universe was very young, and those planets had time to form and grow big inside their primordial disks, even bigger than Jupiter. But how? This was puzzling.
To answer this question, researchers used Webb to study stars in a nearby galaxy that, much like the early universe, lacks large amounts of heavy elements. They found that not only do some stars there have planet-forming disks, but that those disks are longer-lived than those seen around young stars in our Milky Way galaxy.
“With Webb, we have a really strong confirmation of what we saw with Hubble, and we must rethink how we model planet formation and early evolution in the young universe,” said study leader Guido De Marchi of the European Space Research and Technology Centre in Noordwijk, Netherlands.
Image A: Protoplanetary Disks in NGC 346 (NIRCam Image)
This is a James Webb Space Telescope image of NGC 346, a massive star cluster in the Small Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf galaxy that is one of the Milky Way’s nearest neighbors. With its relative lack of elements heavier than hydrogen and helium, the NGC 346 cluster serves as a nearby proxy for studying stellar environments with similar conditions in the early, distant universe. Ten, small, yellow circles overlaid on the image indicate the positions of the ten stars surveyed in this study. NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Olivia C. Jones (UK ATC), Guido De Marchi (ESTEC), Margaret Meixner (USRA) A Different Environment in Early Times
In the early universe, stars formed from mostly hydrogen and helium, and very few heavier elements such as carbon and iron, which came later through supernova explosions.
“Current models predict that with so few heavier elements, the disks around stars have a short lifetime, so short in fact that planets cannot grow big,” said the Webb study’s co-investigator Elena Sabbi, chief scientist for Gemini Observatory at the National Science Foundation’s NOIRLab in Tucson. “But Hubble did see those planets, so what if the models were not correct and disks could live longer?”
To test this idea, scientists trained Webb on the Small Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf galaxy that is one of the Milky Way’s nearest neighbors. In particular, they examined the massive, star-forming cluster NGC 346, which also has a relative lack of heavier elements. The cluster served as a nearby proxy for studying stellar environments with similar conditions in the early, distant universe.
Hubble observations of NGC 346 from the mid 2000s revealed many stars about 20 to 30 million years old that seemed to still have planet-forming disks around them. This went against the conventional belief that such disks would dissipate after 2 or 3 million years.
“The Hubble findings were controversial, going against not only empirical evidence in our galaxy but also against the current models,” said De Marchi. “This was intriguing, but without a way to obtain spectra of those stars, we could not really establish whether we were witnessing genuine accretion and the presence of disks, or just some artificial effects.”
Now, thanks to Webb’s sensitivity and resolution, scientists have the first-ever spectra of forming, Sun-like stars and their immediate environments in a nearby galaxy.
“We see that these stars are indeed surrounded by disks and are still in the process of gobbling material, even at the relatively old age of 20 or 30 million years,” said De Marchi. “This also implies that planets have more time to form and grow around these stars than in nearby star-forming regions in our own galaxy.”
Image B: Protoplanetary Disks in NGC 346 Spectra (NIRSpec)
This graph shows, on the bottom left in yellow, a spectrum of one of the 10 target stars in this study (as well as accompanying light from the immediate background environment). Spectral fingerprints of hot atomic helium, cold molecular hydrogen, and hot atomic hydrogen are highlighted. On the top left in magenta is a spectrum slightly offset from the star that includes only light from the background environment. This second spectrum lacks a spectral line of cold molecular hydrogen.
On the right is the comparison of the top and bottom lines. This comparison shows a large peak in the cold molecular hydrogen coming from the star but not its nebular environment. Also, atomic hydrogen shows a larger peak from the star. This indicates the presence of a protoplanetary disk immediately surrounding the star. The data was taken with the microshutter array on the James Webb Space Telescope’s NIRSpec (Near-Infrared Spectrometer) instrument. Illustration: NASA, ESA, CSA, Joseph Olmsted (STScI) A New Way of Thinking
This finding refutes previous theoretical predictions that when there are very few heavier elements in the gas around the disk, the star would very quickly blow away the disk. So the disk’s life would be very short, even less than a million years. But if a disk doesn’t stay around the star long enough for the dust grains to stick together and pebbles to form and become the core of a planet, how can planets form?
The researchers explained that there could be two distinct mechanisms, or even a combination, for planet-forming disks to persist in environments scarce in heavier elements.
First, to be able to blow away the disk, the star applies radiation pressure. For this pressure to be effective, elements heavier than hydrogen and helium would have to reside in the gas. But the massive star cluster NGC 346 only has about ten percent of the heavier elements that are present in the chemical composition of our Sun. Perhaps it simply takes longer for a star in this cluster to disperse its disk.
The second possibility is that, for a Sun-like star to form when there are few heavier elements, it would have to start from a larger cloud of gas. A bigger gas cloud will produce a bigger disk. So there is more mass in the disk and therefore it would take longer to blow the disk away, even if the radiation pressure were working in the same way.
“With more matter around the stars, the accretion lasts for a longer time,” said Sabbi. “The disks take ten times longer to disappear. This has implications for how you form a planet, and the type of system architecture that you can have in these different environments. This is so exciting.”
The science team’s paper appears in the Dec. 16 issue of The Astrophysical Journal.
Image C: NGC 346: Hubble and Webb Observations
Image Before/After The James Webb Space Telescope is the world’s premier space science observatory. Webb is solving mysteries in our solar system, looking beyond to distant worlds around other stars, and probing the mysterious structures and origins of our universe and our place in it. Webb is an international program led by NASA with its partners, ESA (European Space Agency) and CSA (Canadian Space Agency).
The Hubble Space Telescope has been operating for over three decades and continues to make ground-breaking discoveries that shape our fundamental understanding of the universe. Hubble is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt manages the telescope and mission operations. Lockheed Martin Space, based in Denver also supports mission operations at Goddard. The Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, conducts Hubble science operations for NASA.
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Media Contacts
Laura Betz – laura.e.betz@nasa.gov
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
Ann Jenkins – jenkins@stsci.edu, Christine Pulliam – cpulliam@stsci.edu
Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, Md.
Related Information
Past releases on NGC 346: Webb NIRCam image and MIRI image
Article: Highlighting other Webb Star Formation Discoveries
Simulation Video: Planetary Systems and Origins of Life
Animation Video: Exploring star and planet formation (English), and in Spanish
More Images of NGC 346 on AstroPix
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Last Updated Dec 15, 2024 Editor Marty McCoy Contact Laura Betz laura.e.betz@nasa.gov Related Terms
Astrophysics Galaxies Galaxies, Stars, & Black Holes Goddard Space Flight Center James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Science & Research Stars The Universe View the full article
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By European Space Agency
A multi-orbit constellation of about 300 satellites that will deliver resilient, secure and fast communications for EU governments, European companies and citizens will be put in orbit after two contracts were confirmed today in Brussels.
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By USH
The mystery of unidentified drones remains unresolved, with government authorities offering little clarity. Officials have downplayed the incidents, asserting there is no threat to national security and attributing many sightings to aircraft such as planes or helicopters. However, the lack of transparency has only fueled public speculation and heightened concerns.
What people/experts say:
Some speculate that these drones are part of covert operations designed to detect dirty bombs or nuclear devices or theses drones are part of an advanced surveillance systems operated by certain agencies.
The Space Force could be conducting classified exercises, such as testing cutting-edge technology or performing communication lockdown drills to evaluate detection and evasion capabilities.
A former CIA officer has suggested that the drones may be part of government efforts to trial advanced technologies in urban environments.
Reports indicate these drones exhibit unusual traits, such as lacking heat signatures and evading detection. They might employ RF jamming or encrypted communications, potentially causing unintentional disruptions to civilian electronics, including power outages, while avoiding capture.
Intelligence analysts have compared the drones to Russian Orlan-10 or Iranian Shahed-136 models, raising suspicions of international espionage.
But, the most striking statement came from Elon Musk, who warned earlier this year about the arrival of epic drone wars. He said that drone swarm battles are coming that will boggle the mind. What does he know that we don’t?
A large drone flying at a slow speed, shooting out or launching multiple smaller drones at a relatively high speed.
DAHBOO77 video: Musk's statement on X (formerly Twitter) at approximately the 1:23 mark.View the full article
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