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By NASA
5 min read
How NASA Science Data Defends Earth from Asteroids
Artist’s impression of NASA’s DART mission, which collided with the asteroid Dimorphos in 2022 to test planetary defense techniques. Open science data practices help researchers identify asteroids that pose a hazard to Earth, opening the possibility for deflection should an impact threat be identified. NASA/Johns Hopkins APL/Steve Gribben The asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines in February with the news that it had a chance of hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, as determined by an analysis from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. The probability of collision peaked at over 3% on Feb. 18 — the highest ever recorded for an object of its size. This sparked concerns about the damage the asteroid might do should it hit Earth.
New data collected in the following days lowered the probability to well under 1%, and 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a potential Earth impactor. However, the event underscored the importance of surveying asteroid populations to reveal possible threats to Earth. Sharing scientific data widely allows scientists to determine the risk posed by the near-Earth asteroid population and increases the chances of identifying future asteroid impact hazards in NASA science data.
“The planetary defense community realizes the value of making data products available to everyone,” said James “Gerbs” Bauer, the principal investigator for NASA’s Planetary Data System Small Bodies Node at the University of Maryland in College Park, Maryland.
How Scientists Spot Asteroids That Could Hit Earth
Professional scientists and citizen scientists worldwide play a role in tracking asteroids. The Minor Planet Center, which is housed at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in Cambridge, Massachusetts, collects and verifies vast numbers of asteroid and comet position observations submitted from around the globe. NASA’s Small Bodies Node distributes the data from the Minor Planet Center for anyone who wants to access and use it.
A near-Earth object (NEO) is an asteroid or comet whose orbit brings it within 120 million miles of the Sun, which means it can circulate through Earth’s orbital neighborhood. If a newly discovered object looks like it might be an NEO, information about the object appears on the Minor Planet Center’s NEO Confirmation Page. Members of the planetary science community, whether or not they are professional scientists, are encouraged to follow up on these objects to discover where they’re heading.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 as viewed on January 27, 2025. The image was taken by the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope, one of the largest telescopes in NASA’s Planetary Defense network. Asteroid position information from observations such as this one are shared through the Minor Planet Center and NASA’s Small Bodies Node to help scientists pinpoint the chances of asteroids colliding with Earth. NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology/Ryan When an asteroid’s trajectory looks concerning, CNEOS alerts NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office at NASA Headquarters in Washington, which manages NASA’s ongoing effort to protect Earth from dangerous asteroids. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office also coordinates the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), which is the worldwide collaboration of asteroid observers and modelers.
Orbit analysis centers such as CNEOS perform finer calculations to nail down the probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth. The open nature of the data allows the community to collaborate and compare, ensuring the most accurate determinations possible.
How NASA Discovered Risks of Asteroid 2024 YR4
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially discovered by the NASA-funded ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) survey, which aims to discover potentially hazardous asteroids. Scientists studied additional data about the asteroid from different observatories funded by NASA and from other telescopes across the IAWN.
At first, 2024 YR4 had a broad uncertainty in its future trajectory that passed over Earth. As the planetary defense community collected more observations, the range of possibilities for the asteroid’s future position on Dec. 22, 2032 clustered over Earth, raising the apparent chances of collision. However, with the addition of even more data points, the cluster of possibilities eventually moved off Earth.
This visualization from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies shows the evolution of the risk corridor for asteroid 2024 YR4, using data from observations made up to Feb. 23, 2025. Each yellow dot represents the asteroid’s possible location on Dec. 22, 2032. As the range of possible locations narrowed, the dots at first converged on Earth, before skewing away harmlessly. NASA/JPL/CNEOS Having multiple streams of data available for analysis helps scientists quickly learn more about NEOs. This sometimes involves using data from observatories that are mainly used for astrophysics or heliophysics surveys, rather than for tracking asteroids.
“The planetary defense community both benefits from and is beneficial to the larger planetary and astronomy related ecosystem,” said Bauer, who is also a research professor in the Department of Astronomy at the University of Maryland. “Much of the NEO survey data can also be used for searching astrophysical transients like supernova events. Likewise, astrophysical sky surveys produce data of interest to the planetary defense community.”
How Does NASA Stop Asteroids From Hitting Earth?
In 2022, NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission successfully impacted with the asteroid Dimorphos, shortening the time it takes to orbit around its companion asteroid Didymos by 33 minutes. Didymos had no chance of hitting Earth, but the DART mission’s success means that NASA has a tested technique to consider when addressing a future asteroid potential impact threat.
Artist’s impression of NASA’s upcoming NEO Surveyor mission, which will search for potentially hazardous near-Earth objects. The mission will follow open data practices to improve the chances of identifying dangerous asteroids. NASA/JPL-Caltech To increase the chances of discovering asteroid threats to Earth well in advance, NASA is working on a new space-based observatory, NEO Surveyor, which will be the first spacecraft specifically designed to look for asteroids and comets that pose a hazard to Earth. The mission is expected to launch in the fall of 2027, and the data it collects will be available to everyone through NASA archives.
“Many of the NEOs that pose a risk to Earth remain to be found,” Bauer said. “An asteroid impact has a very low likelihood at any given time, but consequences could be high, and open science is an important component to being vigilant.”
For more information about NASA’s approach to sharing science data, visit:
https://science.nasa.gov/open-science.
By Lauren Leese
Web Content Strategist for the Office of the Chief Science Data Officer
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Last Updated Apr 10, 2025 Related Terms
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NASA Science Supports Data Literacy for K-12 Students
Data – and our ability to understand and use it – shapes nearly every aspect of our world, from decisions in our lives to the skills we need in the workplace and more. All of us, as either producers or consumers of data, will experience how it can be used to problem-solve and think critically as we navigate the world around us. For that reason, Data Science has become an increasingly essential and growing field that combines the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and sharing of data in virtually every area of life. As more data become more openly available, our Data Science skills will be of increasing importance. And yet, there is a widening gap between what students learn in school and the skills they will need to succeed in a data-driven world. The integration of Data Science into K-12 education opens doors to higher education, high-paying careers, and empowering learners to eventually participate in the creation of new knowledge and understanding of our world, and at least 29 states have reported some level of data science implementation at the K-12 level, including standard or framework adoption, course piloting, and educator professional learning.
In February 2025, the first-ever Data Science Education K-12: Research to Practice Conference (DS4E) took place in San Antonio, TX. A number of representatives from NASA’s Science Activation program and other NASA partners attended and presented along with over 250 educators, researchers, and school leaders from across the nation. Science Activation projects share a passion for helping people of all ages and backgrounds connect with NASA science experts, content, experiences, and learning resources, and the AEROKATS & ROVER Education Network (AREN); Place-Based Learning to Advance Connections, Education, and Stewardship (PLACES); Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Mission Earth; and My NASA Data teams did just that. Their presentations at the conference included:
“BYOD – Build or Bring Your Own Data: Developing K-12 Datasets” (PLACES) “Using NASA Data Resources as a Tool to Support Storytelling with Data in K-12 Education” (My NASA Data) “Place-Based Data Literacy: Real People, Real Places, Real Data” (AREN) Conference participants expressed interest in learning more about NASA assets, including data and subject matter experts. Stemming from their participation in this first DS4E, several Science Activation teams are collaborating to potentially host regional events next year under the umbrella of this effort (PLACES in particular), a wonderful example of how Science Activation project teams help lead the charge in the advancement of key Science, Technology, Education, and Mathematics (STEM) fields, such as Data Science, to activate minds and promote a deeper understanding of our world and beyond.
Learn more about how Science Activation connects NASA science experts, real content, and experiences with community leaders to do science in ways that activate minds and promote deeper understanding of our world and beyond: https://science.nasa.gov/learn
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As an Air Force veteran from Spartanburg, South Carolina, Alex Olley now serves as a contract specialist in the International Space Station Procurement Office at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston.
Olley joined NASA as a Pathways intern in January 2023 to turn his lifelong goal into a reality—bringing his unique experience in the defense and space industries to support one of humanity’s most ambitious endeavors.
Official portrait of Alex Olley.NASA Olley manages the procurement of supplies, services, and research for the International Space Station. His role requires sharp attention to federal regulations and a deep understanding of business practices, all while supporting the astronauts who live and work 250 miles above Earth.
“I take great pride in the opportunity that I get to contribute to NASA’s mission each day,” he said. “I’m incredibly grateful for my time here, and it feels like a significant achievement, especially because many of my friends and family have shared how inspired they are to pursue their own goals as a result.”
Alex Olley prepares for an Air Force training at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek City, South Korea. Image courtesy of Alex Olley A quote shared by Johnson’s director of the Office of Procurement, Bradley Niese, became a guiding principle that has shaped Olley’s NASA experience: “People are the mission, and if we take care of the people, the mission will take care of itself.”
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Alex Olley records a YouTube video at Rocket Park about how to become a NASA intern.Image courtesy of Alex Olley As NASA looks toward the Moon and Mars through Artemis, Olley is focused on uplifting the Artemis Generation.
“I want to pass on my perspective on Johnson’s mission: Dare, Unite, and Explore,” he said. “DARE to take on the challenge and face it head on, UNITE with your peers, and never be afraid to EXPLORE the unknown.”
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