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By NASA
3 Min Read NASA Scientists Find New Human-Caused Shifts in Global Water Cycle
Cracked mud and salt on the valley floor in Death Valley National Park in California can become a reflective pool after rains. (File photo) Credits: NPS/Kurt Moses In a recently published paper, NASA scientists use nearly 20 years of observations to show that the global water cycle is shifting in unprecedented ways. The majority of those shifts are driven by activities such as agriculture and could have impacts on ecosystems and water management, especially in certain regions.
“We established with data assimilation that human intervention in the global water cycle is more significant than we thought,” said Sujay Kumar, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and a co-author of the paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The shifts have implications for people all over the world. Water management practices, such as designing infrastructure for floods or developing drought indicators for early warning systems, are often based on assumptions that the water cycle fluctuates only within a certain range, said Wanshu Nie, a research scientist at NASA Goddard and lead author of the paper.
“This may no longer hold true for some regions,” Nie said. “We hope that this research will serve as a guide map for improving how we assess water resources variability and plan for sustainable resource management, especially in areas where these changes are most significant.”
One example of the human impacts on the water cycle is in North China, which is experiencing an ongoing drought. But vegetation in many areas continues to thrive, partially because producers continue to irrigate their land by pumping more water from groundwater storage, Kumar said. Such interrelated human interventions often lead to complex effects on other water cycle variables, such as evapotranspiration and runoff.
Nie and her colleagues focused on three different kinds of shifts or changes in the cycle: first, a trend, such as a decrease in water in a groundwater reservoir; second, a shift in seasonality, like the typical growing season starting earlier in the year, or an earlier snowmelt; and third a change in extreme events, like “100-year floods” happening more frequently.
The scientists gathered remote sensing data from 2003 to 2020 from several different NASA satellite sources: the Global Precipitation Measurement mission satellite for precipitation data, a soil moisture dataset from the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative, and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites for terrestrial water storage data. They also used products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite instrument to provide information on vegetation health.
“This paper combines several years of our team’s effort in developing capabilities on satellite data analysis, allowing us to precisely simulate continental water fluxes and storages across the planet,” said Augusto Getirana, a research scientist at NASA Goddard and a co-author of the paper.
The study results suggest that Earth system models used to simulate the future global water cycle should evolve to integrate the ongoing effects of human activities. With more data and improved models, producers and water resource managers could understand and effectively plan for what the “new normal” of their local water situation looks like, Nie said.
By Erica McNamee
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
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Last Updated Jan 16, 2025 EditorKate D. RamsayerContactKate D. Ramsayerkate.d.ramsayer@nasa.gov Related Terms
Earth Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Goddard Space Flight Center Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Water & Energy Cycle Explore More
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By NASA
Webb Webb News Latest News Latest Images Blog (offsite) Awards X (offsite – login reqd) Instagram (offsite – login reqd) Facebook (offsite- login reqd) Youtube (offsite) Overview About Who is James Webb? Fact Sheet Impacts+Benefits FAQ Science Overview and Goals Early Universe Galaxies Over Time Star Lifecycle Other Worlds Observatory Overview Launch Orbit Mirrors Sunshield Instrument: NIRCam Instrument: MIRI Instrument: NIRSpec Instrument: FGS/NIRISS Optical Telescope Element Backplane Spacecraft Bus Instrument Module Multimedia About Webb Images Images Videos What is Webb Observing? 3d Webb in 3d Solar System Podcasts Webb Image Sonifications Team International Team People Of Webb More For the Media For Scientists For Educators For Fun/Learning 6 Min Read Webb Watches Carbon-Rich Dust Shells Form, Expand in Star System
A portion of Webb’s 2023 observation of Wolf-Rayet 140. Credits:
Image: NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI; Science: Emma Lieb (University of Denver), Ryan Lau (NSF NOIRLab), Jennifer Hoffman (University of Denver) Astronomers have long tried to track down how elements like carbon, which is essential for life, become widely distributed across the universe. Now, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has examined one ongoing source of carbon-rich dust in our own Milky Way galaxy in greater detail: Wolf-Rayet 140, a system of two massive stars that follow a tight, elongated orbit.
As they swing past one another (within the central white dot in the Webb images), the stellar winds from each star slam together, the material compresses, and carbon-rich dust forms. Webb’s latest observations show 17 dust shells shining in mid-infrared light that are expanding at regular intervals into the surrounding space.
Image A: Compare Observations of Wolf-Rayet 140 (MIRI Images)
Two mid-infrared images from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope of Wolf-Rayet 140 show carbon-rich dust moving in space. At right, the two triangles from the main images are matched up to show how much difference 14 months makes: The dust is racing away from the central stars at almost 1% the speed of light. These stars are 5,000 light-years away in our own Milky Way galaxy. Image: NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI; Science: Emma Lieb (University of Denver), Ryan Lau (NSF NOIRLab), Jennifer Hoffman (University of Denver) “The telescope not only confirmed that these dust shells are real, its data also showed that the dust shells are moving outward at consistent velocities, revealing visible changes over incredibly short periods of time,” said Emma Lieb, the lead author of the new paper and a doctoral student at the University of Denver in Colorado.
Every shell is racing away from the stars at more than 1,600 miles per second (2,600 kilometers per second), almost 1% the speed of light. “We are used to thinking about events in space taking place slowly, over millions or billions of years,” added Jennifer Hoffman, a co-author and a professor at the University of Denver. “In this system, the observatory is showing that the dust shells are expanding from one year to the next.”
Like clockwork, the stars’ winds generate dust for several months every eight years, as the pair make their closest approach during a wide, elongated orbit. Webb also shows how dust formation varies — look for the darker region at top left in both images.
Video A: Fade Between 2022 and 2023 Observations of Wolf-Rayet 140
This video alternates between two mid-infrared light observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope of Wolf-Rayet 140. Over only 14 months, Webb showed the dust in the system has expanded. This two-star system has sent out more than 17 shells of dust over 130 years. Video: NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI.; Science: Emma Lieb (University of Denver), Ryan Lau (NSF NOIRLab), Jennifer Hoffman (University of Denver) Video B: Stars’ Orbits in Wolf-Rayet 140 (Visualization)
When the two massive stars in Wolf-Rayet 140 swing past one another, their winds collide, material compresses, and carbon-rich dust forms. The stronger winds of the hotter star in the Wolf-Rayet system blow behind its slightly cooler (but still hot) companion. The stars create dust for several months in every eight-year orbit.
Video: NASA, ESA, CSA, Joseph Olmsted (STScI). The telescope’s mid-infrared images detected shells that have persisted for more than 130 years. (Older shells have dissipated enough that they are now too dim to detect.) The researchers speculate that the stars will ultimately generate tens of thousands of dust shells over hundreds of thousands of years.
“Mid-infrared observations are absolutely crucial for this analysis, since the dust in this system is fairly cool. Near-infrared and visible light would only show the shells that are closest to the star,” explained Ryan Lau, a co-author and astronomer at NSF NOIRLab in Tuscon, Arizona, who led the initial research about this system. “With these incredible new details, the telescope is also allowing us to study exactly when the stars are forming dust — almost to the day.”
The dust’s distribution isn’t uniform. Though this isn’t obvious at first glance, zooming in on the shells in Webb’s images reveals that some of the dust has “piled up,” forming amorphous, delicate clouds that are as large as our entire solar system. Many other individual dust particles float freely. Every speck is as small as one-hundredth the width of a human hair. Clumpy or not, all of the dust moves at the same speed and is carbon rich.
The Future of This System
What will happen to these stars over millions or billions of years, after they are finished “spraying” their surroundings with dust? The Wolf-Rayet star in this system is 10 times more massive than the Sun and nearing the end of its life. In its final “act,” this star will either explode as a supernova — possibly blasting away some or all of the dust shells — or collapse into a black hole, which would leave the dust shells intact.
Though no one can predict with any certainty what will happen, researchers are rooting for the black hole scenario. “A major question in astronomy is, where does all the dust in the universe come from?” Lau said. “If carbon-rich dust like this survives, it could help us begin to answer that question.”
“We know carbon is necessary for the formation of rocky planets and solar systems like ours,” Hoffman added. “It’s exciting to get a glimpse into how binary star systems not only create carbon-rich dust, but also propel it into our galactic neighborhood.”
These results have been published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters and were presented in a press conference at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society in National Harbor, Maryland.
The James Webb Space Telescope is the world’s premier space science observatory. Webb will solve mysteries in our solar system, look beyond to distant worlds around other stars, and probe the mysterious structures and origins of our universe and our place in it. Webb is an international program led by NASA with its partners, ESA (European Space Agency) and the Canadian Space Agency.
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NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
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Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, Md.
Science – Emma Lieb (University of Denver)
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By NASA
International teams of astronomers monitoring a supermassive black hole in the heart of a distant galaxy have detected features never seen before using data from NASA missions and other facilities. The features include the launch of a plasma jet moving at nearly one-third the speed of light and unusual, rapid X-ray fluctuations likely arising from near the very edge of the black hole.
Radio images of 1ES 1927+654 reveal emerging structures that appear to be jets of plasma erupting from both sides of the galaxy’s central black hole following a strong radio flare. The first image, taken in June 2023, shows no sign of the jet, possibly because hot gas screened it from view. Then, starting in February 2024, the features emerge and expand away from the galaxy’s center, covering a total distance of about half a light-year as measured from the center of each structure. NSF/AUI/NSF NRAO/Meyer at al. 2025 The source is 1ES 1927+654, a galaxy located about 270 million light-years away in the constellation Draco. It harbors a central black hole with a mass equivalent to about 1.4 million Suns.
“In 2018, the black hole began changing its properties right before our eyes, with a major optical, ultraviolet, and X-ray outburst,” said Eileen Meyer, an associate professor at UMBC (University of Maryland Baltimore County). “Many teams have been keeping a close eye on it ever since.”
She presented her team’s findings at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society in National Harbor, Maryland. A paper led by Meyer describing the radio results was published Jan. 13 in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
After the outburst, the black hole appeared to return to a quiet state, with a lull in activity for nearly a year. But by April 2023, a team led by Sibasish Laha at UMBC and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, had noted a steady, months-long increase in low-energy X-rays in measurements by NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory and NICER (Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer) telescope on the International Space Station. This monitoring program, which also includes observations from NASA’s NuSTAR (Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array) and ESA’s (European Space Agency) XMM-Newton mission, continues.
The increase in X-rays triggered the UMBC team to make new radio observations, which indicated a strong and highly unusual radio flare was underway. The scientists then began intensive observations using the NRAO’s (National Radio Astronomy Observatory) VLBA (Very Long Baseline Array) and other facilities. The VLBA, a network of radio telescopes spread across the U.S., combines signals from individual dishes to create what amounts to a powerful, high-resolution radio camera. This allows the VLBA to detect features less than a light-year across at 1ES 1927+654’s distance.
Active galaxy 1ES 1927+654, circled, has exhibited extraordinary changes since 2018, when a major outburst occurred in visible, ultraviolet, and X-ray light. The galaxy harbors a central black hole weighing about 1.4 million solar masses and is located 270 million light-years away. Pan-STARRS Radio data from February, April, and May 2024 reveals what appear to be jets of ionized gas, or plasma, extending from either side of the black hole, with a total size of about half a light-year. Astronomers have long puzzled over why only a fraction of monster black holes produce powerful plasma jets, and these observations may provide critical clues.
“The launch of a black hole jet has never been observed before in real time,” Meyer noted. “We think the outflow began earlier, when the X-rays increased prior to the radio flare, and the jet was screened from our view by hot gas until it broke out early last year.”
A paper exploring that possibility, led by Laha, is under review at The Astrophysical Journal. Both Meyer and Megan Masterson, a doctoral candidate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge who also presented at the meeting, are co-authors.
Using XMM-Newton observations, Masterson found that the black hole exhibited extremely rapid X-ray variations between July 2022 and March 2024. During this period, the X-ray brightness repeatedly rose and fell by 10% every few minutes. Such changes, called millihertz quasiperiodic oscillations, are difficult to detect around supermassive black holes and have been observed in only a handful of systems to date.
“One way to produce these oscillations is with an object orbiting within the black hole’s accretion disk. In this scenario, each rise and fall of the X-rays represents one orbital cycle,” Masterson said.
If the fluctuations were caused by an orbiting mass, then the period would shorten as the object fell ever closer to the black hole’s event horizon, the point of no return. Orbiting masses generate ripples in space-time called gravitational waves. These waves drain away orbital energy, bringing the object closer to the black hole, increasing its speed, and shortening its orbital period.
Over two years, the fluctuation period dropped from 18 minutes to just 7 — the first-ever measurement of its kind around a supermassive black hole. If this represented an orbiting object, it was now moving at half the speed of light. Then something unexpected happened — the fluctuation period stabilized.
In this artist’s concept, matter is stripped from a white dwarf (sphere at lower right) orbiting within the innermost accretion disk surrounding 1ES 1927+654’s supermassive black hole. Astronomers developed this scenario to explain the evolution of rapid X-ray oscillations detected by ESA’s (European Space Agency) XMM-Newton satellite. ESA’s LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) mission, due to launch in the next decade, should be able to confirm the presence of an orbiting white dwarf by detecting the gravitational waves it produces. NASA/Aurore Simonnet, Sonoma State University “We were shocked by this at first,” Masterson explained. “But we realized that as the object moved closer to the black hole, its strong gravitational pull could begin to strip matter from the companion. This mass loss could offset the energy removed by gravitational waves, halting the companion’s inward motion.”
So what could this companion be? A small black hole would plunge straight in, and a normal star would quickly be torn apart by the tidal forces near the monster black hole. But the team found that a low-mass white dwarf — a stellar remnant about as large as Earth — could remain intact close to the black hole’s event horizon while shedding some of its matter. A paper led by Masterson summarizing these results will appear in the Feb. 13 edition of the journal Nature.
This model makes a key prediction, Masterson notes. If the black hole does have a white dwarf companion, the gravitational waves it produces will be detectable by LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna), an ESA mission in partnership with NASA that is expected to launch in the next decade.
Download high-resolution images from NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio
By Francis Reddy
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
Media Contacts:
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NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
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National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Charlottesville, Va.
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Last Updated Jan 13, 2025 Related Terms
Active Galaxies Astrophysics Black Holes Galaxies, Stars, & Black Holes Goddard Space Flight Center Jet Propulsion Laboratory Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory NICER (Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer) NuSTAR (Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array) Radio Astronomy Supermassive Black Holes The Universe White Dwarfs X-ray Astronomy XMM-Newton (X-ray Multi-Mirror Newton) View the full article
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By NASA
3 min read
January’s Night Sky Notes: The Red Planet
by Kat Troche of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific
Have you looked up at the night sky this season and noticed a bright object sporting a reddish hue to the left of Orion? This is none other than the planet Mars! January will be an excellent opportunity to spot this planet and some of its details with a medium-sized telescope. Be sure to catch these three events this month.
Martian Retrograde
Mars entered retrograde (or backward movement relative to its usual direction) on December 7, 2024, and will continue throughout January into February 23, 2025. You can track the planet’s progress by sketching or photographing Mars’ position relative to nearby stars. Be consistent with your observations, taking them every few nights or so as the weather permits. You can use free software like Stellarium or Stellarium Web (the browser version) to help you navigate the night as Mars treks around the sky. You can find Mars above the eastern horizon after 8:00 PM local time.
This mid-January chart shows the path of Mars from September 2024 to June 2025 as it enters and then exits in retrograde motion. Mars appears to change its direction of motion in the sky because Earth is passing the slower-moving Mars in its orbit. Stellarium Hide and Seek
On the night of January 13th, you can watch Mars ‘disappear’ behind the Moon during an occultation. An occultation is when one celestial object passes directly in front of another, hiding the background object from view. This can happen with planets and stars in our night sky, depending on the orbit of an object and where you are on Earth, similar to eclipses.
A simulated view of the Moon as Mars begins its occultation on January 13, 2025. Stellarium Depending on where you are within the contiguous United States, you can watch this event with the naked eye, binoculars, or a small telescope. The occultation will happen for over an hour in some parts of the US. You can use websites like Stellarium Web or the Astronomical League’s ‘Moon Occults Mars’ chart to calculate the best time to see this event.
Closer and Closer
As you observe Mars this month to track its retrograde movement, you will notice that it will increase in brightness. This is because Mars will reach opposition by the evening of January 16th. Opposition happens when a planet is directly opposite the Sun, as seen from Earth. You don’t need to be in any specific city to observe this event; you only need clear skies to observe that it gets brighter. It’s also when Mars is closest to Earth, so you’ll see more details in a telescope.
Want a quick and easy way to illustrate what opposition is for Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, or other outer worlds? Follow the instructions on our Toolkit Hack: Illustrating Opposition with Exploring the Solar System page using our Exploring Our Solar System activity!
A mosaic of the Valles Marineris hemisphere of Mars projected into point perspective, a view similar to that which one would see from a spacecraft. The mosaic is composed of 102 Viking Orbiter images of Mars. NASA/JPL-Caltech Mars has fascinated humanity for centuries, with its earliest recorded observations dating back to the Bronze Age. By the 17th century, astronomers were able to identify features of the Martian surface, such as its ice caps and darker regions. Since the 1960s, exploration of the Red Planet has intensified with robotic missions from various space organizations. Currently, NASA has five active missions, including rovers and orbiters, with the future focused on human exploration and habitation. Mars will always fill us with a sense of wonder and adventure as we reach for its soil through initiatives such as the Moon to Mars Architecture and the Mars Sample Return campaign.
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