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By NASA
In the unforgiving lunar environment, the possibility of an astronaut crewmember becoming incapacitated due to unforeseen circumstances (injury, medical emergency, or a mission-related accident) is a critical concern, starting with the upcoming Artemis III mission, where two astronaut crewmembers will explore the Lunar South Pole. The Moon’s surface is littered with rocks ranging from 0.15 to 20 meters in diameter and craters spanning 1 to 30 meters wide, making navigation challenging even under optimal conditions. The low gravity, unique lighting conditions, extreme temperatures, and availability of only one person to perform the rescue, further complicate any rescue efforts. Among the critical concerns is the safety of astronauts during Extravehicular Activities (EVAs). If an astronaut crewmember becomes incapacitated during a mission, the ability to return them safely and promptly to the human landing system is essential. A single crew member should be able to transport an incapacitated crew member distances up to 2 km and a slope of up to 20 degrees on the lunar terrain without the assistance of a lunar rover. This pressing issue opens the door for innovative solutions. We are looking for a cutting-edge design that is low in mass and easy to deploy, enabling one astronaut crewmember to safely transport their suited (343 kg (~755lb)) and fully incapacitated partner back to the human landing system. The solution must perform effectively in the Moon’s extreme South Pole environment and operate independently of a lunar rover. Your creativity and expertise could bridge this critical gap, enhancing the safety measures for future lunar explorers. By addressing this challenge, you have the opportunity to contribute to the next “giant leap” in human space exploration.
Award: $45,000 in total prizes
Open Date: November 14, 2024
Close Date: January 23, 2025
For more information, visit: https://www.herox.com/NASASouthPoleSafety
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By NASA
Skywatching Skywatching Home Eclipses What’s Up Explore the Night Sky Night Sky Network More Tips and Guides FAQ 24 Min Read The Next Full Moon Will Be the Last of Four Consecutive Supermoons
Guardians of Traffic statue in Cleveland, Ohio, in front of the supermoon that was visible on Sept. 17, 2024. On this day, the full moon was a partial lunar eclipse; a supermoon; and a harvest moon. Credits:
NASA/GRC/Sara Lowthian-Hanna The Next Full Moon is a Supermoon; the Beaver, Frost, Frosty, or Snow Moon; Kartik Purnima; Loy Krathong; the Bon Om Touk (”Boat Racing Festival”) Moon, the Tazaungdaing Festival Moon; and Ill Poya.
The next full Moon will be Friday afternoon, November 15, 2024, at 4:29 PM EST. This will be early Saturday morning from Kamchatka and Fiji Time eastwards to the International Date Line. The Pleiades star cluster will appear near the full Moon. The Moon will appear full for about 3 days around this time, from a few hours before sunrise on Thursday morning to a few hours before sunrise on Sunday morning.
This full Moon will be the last of four consecutive supermoons, slightly closer and brighter than the first of the four in mid-August.
The Maine Farmers’ Almanac began publishing Native American names for full Moons in the 1930s. Over time these names have become widely known and used. According to this almanac, as the full Moon in November this is the Beaver Moon, the Frost or Frosty Moon, or the Snow Moon. For the Beaver Moon, one interpretation is that mid-Fall was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps freeze to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Beaver Moon came from how active the beavers are in this season as they prepare for winter. The Frost, Frosty, or Snow Moon names come from the frosts and early snows that begin this time of year, particularly in northeastern North America.
This is Kartik Purnima (the full Moon of the Hindu lunar month of Kartik) and is celebrated by Hindus, Jains, and Sikhs (each for different reasons).
In Thailand and nearby countries this full Moon is Loy Krathong, a festival that includes decorating baskets and floating them on a river.
In Cambodia this full Moon corresponds with the 3-day Bon Om Touk (“Boat Racing Festival”), the Cambodian Water Festival featuring dragon boat races.
In Myanmar this is the Tazaungdaing Festival, a festival that predates the introduction of Buddhism and includes the launching of hot air balloons (sometimes flaming or laden with fireworks).
In Sri Lanka this is Ill (or Il) Poya, commemorating the Buddha’s ordination of sixty disciples as the first Buddhist missionaries.
In many traditional Moon-based calendars the full Moons fall on or near the middle of each month. This full Moon is near the middle of the tenth month of the Chinese year of the Dragon, Marcheshvan in the Hebrew calendar, a name often shortened to Cheshvan or Heshvan, and Jumādā al-ʾŪlā, the fifth month of the Islamic year.
As usual, the wearing of suitably celebratory celestial attire is encouraged in honor of the full Moon. Get ready for winter, visit a local river (particularly if there are any festivals or boat races), but please don’t launch flaming hot air balloons filled with fireworks (some online videos make it quite clear why this is a bad idea), especially in areas subject to wildfires!
The next month or two should be a great time for Jupiter and Saturn watching. Both will continue to shift westward each night, gradually making them easier to see earlier in the evening sky.
Gordon Johnston
Retired NASA Program Executive
As for other celestial events between now and the full Moon after next (with specific times and angles based on the location of NASA Headquarters in Washington, DC):
As Autumn continues the daily periods of sunlight continue shortening.
On Friday, November 15, (the day of the full Moon), morning twilight will begin at 5:51 AM EST, sunrise will be at 6:51 AM, solar noon will be at 11:53 AM when the Sun will reach its maximum altitude of 32.4 degrees, sunset will be at 4:54 PM, and evening twilight will end at 5:55 PM.
Our 24-hour clock is based on the average length of the solar day. The day of the winter solstice is sometimes called the “shortest day of the year” (because it has the shortest period of sunlight). But it could also be called the “longest day of the year” because the longest solar day is on or just after the solstice. Because the solar days are longer, the earliest sunset of the year occurs before the solstice and the latest sunrise of the year (ignoring Daylight Savings Time) occurs after the solstice. For the Washington, DC area, the sunsets on Friday and Saturday, December 6 and 7, 2024, are tied for the earliest sunsets. On Friday, morning twilight will begin at 6:10 AM EST, sunrise will be at 7:13 AM, solar noon will be at 11:59 AM when the Sun will reach its maximum altitude of 28.5 degrees, sunset will be at 4:45:50 PM, and evening twilight will end at 5:49 PM. On Saturday, morning twilight will begin at 6:11 AM EST, sunrise will be at 7:14 AM, solar noon will actually be at noon (12:00 PM) when the Sun will reach its maximum altitude of 28.4 degrees, sunset will be at 4:45:50 PM, and evening twilight will end at 5:49 PM.
By Sunday, December 15, (the day of the full Moon after next), morning twilight will begin at 6:16 AM EST, sunrise will be at 7:20 AM, solar noon will be at 12:04 PM when the Sun will reach its maximum altitude of 27.8 degrees, sunset will be at 4:47 PM, and evening twilight will end at 5:51 PM.
The next month or two should be a great time for Jupiter and Saturn watching, especially with a backyard telescope. Saturn was at its closest and brightest on September 7 and is high in the southern sky as evening twilight ends. Jupiter will be shifting into the evening sky during this lunar cycle. On November 15 Jupiter will be rising about a half hour after evening twilight ends. Jupiter will be at its closest and brightest on December 7, rising around sunset and setting around sunrise. By the full Moon after next on December 15, Jupiter will be 19 degrees above the horizon as evening twilight ends. Both Jupiter and Saturn will continue to shift westward each night, gradually making them easier to see earlier in the evening sky (and friendlier for backyard stargazing, especially if you have young ones with earlier bedtimes). With clear skies and a telescope you should be able to see Jupiter’s four bright moons, Ganymede, Callisto, Europa, and Io, noticeably shifting positions in the course of an evening. For Saturn, you should be able to see Saturn’s rings and its bright moon Titan. The rings are appearing thinner and will be edge-on to the Earth in March 2025. We won’t get the “classic” view of Saturn showing off its rings until 2026.
Comets
Of the two comets described in my last Moon Missive, one remains visible through large binoculars or a telescope during this lunar cycle. The sungrazing Comet C/2024 S1 (ATLAS) disintegrated during its very close pass by the Sun and is no longer visible. Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will be in the evening sky, fading from visual magnitude 8 to 10.3 as it moves away from the Earth and Sun.
In addition, comet 33P/LINEAR should be visible with large binoculars or a telescope in November and December, shining at about magnitude 10 around its perihelion on November 29 and closest approach to Earth on December 9. The next comet that we anticipate might be visible to the unaided eye is C/2024 G3 (ATLAS), which will reach its closest to the Sun and Earth in mid January 2025. It is another sungrazing comet that might put on a good show or might break apart and vanish.
Meteor Showers
Unfortunately, one of the three major meteor showers of the year, the Geminids (004 GEM), will peak the morning of December 14, with the light of the nearly full Moon interfering. According to the International Meteor Organization, observers south of about 30 degrees north might be able to see these meteors for an hour or so between moonset and the first light of dawn (although the radiant for this meteor shower is at 33 degrees north latitude, so observers too far south of the equator will also have limited visibility). In a good year, this shower can produce 150 visible meteors per hour under ideal conditions, but this will not be a good year. For the Washington, DC area the MeteorActive app predicts that at about 2 AM EST on the morning of December 14, under bright suburban sky conditions, the peak rate from the Geminids and all other background sources might reach 20 meteors per hour.
If the weather cooperates by being clear with no clouds or hazes and you do go looking for meteors, try to find a place as far as possible from light sources that has a clear view of a wide expanse of the sky. Give your eyes plenty of time to adapt to the dark. Your color vision (cone cells), concentrated in the center of your field of view, will adapt to darkness in about 10 minutes. Your more sensitive night vision rod cells will continue to improve for an hour or more (with most of the improvement in the first 35 to 45 minutes). The more sensitive your eyes are, the more chance you will have of seeing meteors. Since some meteors are faint, you will tend to see more meteors from the “corner of your eye.” Even a short exposure to light (from passing car headlights, etc.) will start the adaptation over again (so no turning on a light or your cell phone to check what time it is).
In addition, a number of relatively minor meteor showers will peak during this lunar cycle. The light of the waning Moon will interfere with the Leonids (013 LEO) on November 17, α-Monocerotids (246 AMO) on November 21, and November Orionids (250 NOO) on November 28. The Phoenicids (254 PHO), best seen from the Southern Hemisphere, may peak around December 1. Models predict low rates and faint meteors this year but not much is known about this meteor shower. Most years the rates are low, but as reported by the International Meteor Organization, significant activity was observed in 2014. Once, in 1956, the Phoenicids reached an estimated rate of 100 visible meteors per hour. Another Southern Hemisphere shower is the Puppid-Velids (301 PUP), expected to peak sometime around December 4 at about 10 meteors per hour (under ideal conditions). The Monocerotids (019 MON) and σ-Hydrids (016 HYD) are both expected to peak on December 9 at 3 meteors per hour and 7 meteors per hour, respectively. These rates are low enough that seeing them from our light-polluted urban areas will be unlikely.
Evening Sky Highlights
On the evening of Friday, November 15 (the evening of the full Moon), as twilight ends (at 5:55 PM EST), the rising Moon will be 14 degrees above the east-northeastern horizon with the Pleiades star cluster 5 degrees to the lower left. The brightest planet in the sky will be Venus at 12 degrees above the southwestern horizon. Next in brightness will be Mercury at less than a degree above the west-southwestern horizon. Saturn will be 38 degrees above the south-southeastern horizon. Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will be 39 degrees above the west-southwestern horizon, with its current brightness curve predicting it will have faded to magnitude 8, too faint to see with the unaided eye. The bright star closest to overhead will be Deneb at 79 degrees above the northwestern horizon. Deneb (visual magnitude 1.3) is the 19th brightest star in our night sky and is the brightest star in the constellation Cygnus the swan. One of the three bright stars of the “Summer Triangle” (along with Vega and Altair). Deneb is about 20 times more massive than our Sun but has used up its hydrogen, becoming a blue-white supergiant about 200 times the diameter of the Sun. If Deneb were where our Sun is, it would extend to about the orbit of the Earth. Deneb is about 2,600 light years from us.
As this lunar cycle progresses, Saturn and the background of stars will appear to shift westward each evening (as the Earth moves around the Sun). Bright Venus will shift to the left and higher in the sky along the southwestern horizon. Mercury, shining brighter than Saturn, will initially shift left along the southwestern horizon until November 19, after which it will shift to the right. On November 22 Jupiter will join the planets Venus, Mercury and Saturn in the sky as twilight ends, shining brighter than Mercury. November 24 will be the last evening Mercury will be above the horizon as evening twilight ends, although it will remain visible in the glow of dusk for a few more evenings as it dims and shifts towards its passage between the Earth and the Sun on December 5. Jupiter will be at its closest and brightest for the year on December 7. The waxing Moon will pass by Venus on December 4, Saturn on December 7, and the Pleiades on December 13.
By the evening of Saturday, December 14 (the start of the night of the December 15 full Moon), as twilight ends (at 5:50 PM EST), the rising Moon will be 19 degrees above the east-northeastern horizon with bright planet Jupiter 6 degrees to the right and the bright star Aldebaran father to the right. The brightest planet visible will be Venus at 21 degrees above the southwestern horizon. Next in brightness will be Jupiter. Saturn will be 43 degrees above the southern horizon. The bright star closest to overhead will still be Deneb at 61 degrees above the west-northwestern horizon.
Morning Sky Highlights
On the morning of Friday, November 15 (the morning of the full Moon after next), as twilight begins (at 5:51 AM EST), the setting full Moon will be 7 degrees above the west-northwestern horizon. The brightest planet in the sky will be Jupiter at 35 degrees above the western horizon. Mars will be at 68 degrees above the southwestern horizon. Comet C/2024 S1 (ATLAS) will not be visible, even with a telescope, as it broke apart into pieces too small to see as it passed its closest to the Sun on October 28. The bright star appearing closest to overhead will be Pollux at 69 degrees above the west-southwestern horizon (higher than Mars by about a half degree). Pollux is the 17th brightest star in our night sky and the brighter of the twin stars in the constellation Gemini. It is an orange tinted star about 34 lightyears from Earth. Pollux is not quite twice the mass of our Sun but about 9 times the diameter and 33 times the brightness.
As this lunar cycle progresses, Jupiter, Mars, and the background of stars will appear to shift westward each evening, with Mars passing near the Beehive star cluster in early December. The waning Moon will pass by the Pleiades star cluster on November 16, Jupiter on November 17, Mars and Pollux on November 20, appear on the other side of Mars on November 21, Regulus on November 22 and 23, and Spica on November 27 (passing in front of Spica for parts of the USA and Canada). Jupiter will be at its closest and brightest on December 7, rising around sunset and setting around sunrise. December 12 will be the first morning Mercury will be above the east-southeastern horizon as morning twilight begins, though it will be visible in the glow of dawn for a few days before.
By the morning of Sunday, December 15 (the morning of the full Moon after next), as twilight begins (at 6:16 AM EST), the setting full Moon will be 15 degrees above the west-northwestern horizon. The brightest planet in the sky will be Jupiter, appearing below the Moon at 5 degrees above the horizon. Second in brightness will be Mars at 46 degrees above the western horizon, then Mercury at 4 degrees above the east-southeastern horizon. The bright star appearing closest to overhead will be Regulus at 55 degrees above the southwestern horizon, with Arcturus a close second at 52 degrees above the east-southeastern horizon. Regulus is the 21st brightest star in our night sky and the brightest star in the constellation Leo the lion. The Arabic name for Regulus translates as “the heart of the lion.” Although we see Regulus as a single star, it is actually four stars (two pairs of stars orbiting each other). Regulus is about 79 light years from us. Arcturus is the brightest star in the constellation Boötes the herdsman or plowman and the 4th brightest star in our night sky. It is 36.7 light years from us. While it has about the same mass as our Sun, it is about 2.6 billion years older and has used up its core hydrogen, becoming a red giant 25 times the size and 170 times the brightness of our Sun. One way to identify Arcturus in the night sky is to start at the Big Dipper, then follow the arc of the handle as it “arcs towards Arcturus.”
Detailed Daily Guide
Here for your reference is a day-by-day listing of celestial events between now and the full Moon on December 15, 2024. The times and angles are based on the location of NASA Headquarters in Washington, DC, and some of these details may differ for where you are (I use parentheses to indicate times specific to the DC area). If your latitude is significantly different than 39 degrees north (and especially for my Southern Hemisphere readers), I recommend using an astronomy app set for your location or a star-watching guide from a local observatory, news outlet, or astronomy club.
Thursday morning, November 14, at 6:18 EST, the Moon will be at perigee, its closest to the Earth for this orbit.
As mentioned above, the full Moon will be Friday afternoon, November 15, 2024, at 4:29 PM EST. This will be early Saturday morning from Kamchatka and Fiji Time eastwards to the International Date Line. It will be the last of four consecutive supermoons. The Pleiades star cluster will appear near the full Moon. The Moon will appear full for about 3 days around this time, from a few hours before sunrise Thursday morning to a few hours before sunrise Sunday morning.
Friday evening into Saturday morning, November 15 to 16, the Pleiades star cluster will appear near the full Moon. This may best be viewed with binoculars, as the brightness of the full Moon may make it hard to see the stars in this star cluster. As evening twilight ends (at 5:55 PM EST), the Pleiades will appear 5 degrees to the lower left of the full Moon. By the time the Moon reaches its highest for the night (Saturday morning at 12:07 AM), the Pleiades will be 2 degrees to the upper left. The Moon will pass in front of the Pleiades in the early morning hours. By the time morning twilight begins (at 5:52 AM) the Pleiades will be a degree to the lower right of the Moon.
Saturday, November 16, will be when the planet Mercury reaches its greatest angular separation from the Sun as seen from the Earth for this apparition (called greatest elongation). Because the angle between the line from the Sun to Mercury and the line of the horizon changes with the seasons, the date when Mercury and the Sun are farthest apart as seen from the Earth is not always the same as when Mercury appears highest above the southwestern horizon as evening twilight ends, which will occur three evenings later, on November 19.
Saturday night into Sunday morning, November 16 to 17, the planet Uranus will be at its closest and brightest for the year, called “opposition” because on Saturday night it will be opposite the Earth from the Sun. At opposition Uranus can be bright enough to see with the unaided eye (under very clear, dark sky conditions). From our light-polluted urban locations you will need binoculars or a telescope.
Also on Saturday night into Sunday morning, November 16 to 17, the planet Jupiter will appear near the full Moon. As Jupiter rises on the east-northeastern horizon (at 6:14 PM EST) it will be 10 degrees to the lower left of the Moon. The Moon will reach its highest for the night about 7 hours later (at 1:09 AM), with Jupiter 7.5 degrees to the lower left. By the time morning twilight begins (at 5:52 AM) Jupiter will be 6 degrees to the left of the Moon.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, November 19 to 20, the bright star Pollux and the bright planet Mars will appear near the waning gibbous Moon. As the Moon rises on the northeastern horizon (at 8:20 PM EST), Pollux will be 2.5 degrees to the upper left of the Moon. By the time the Moon reaches its highest in the sky (at 4:11 AM) Pollux will be 5 degrees to the upper right of the Moon, with Mars 7.5 degrees to the lower left of the Moon, such that these three appear aligned. By the time morning twilight begins (at 5:55 AM) Mars will be 7 degrees to the upper left and Pollux 5.5 degrees to the lower right.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, November 20 to 21, the waning gibbous Moon will have shifted to the other side of Mars. As the Moon rises on the east-northeastern horizon (at 9:29 PM EST) Mars will be 4 degrees to the upper right of the Moon. By the time the Moon reaches its highest for the night (at 5:03 AM) Mars will be 7 degrees to the right of the Moon. Morning twilight will begin less than an hour later (at 5:56 AM) with Mars 7 degrees to the lower right of the Moon.
Friday evening, November 22, will be the first evening the bright planet Jupiter will be above the east-northeastern horizon as evening twilight ends (at 5:51 PM EST).
Also on Friday evening, the waning Moon will appear half-full as it reaches its last quarter at 8:28 PM EST (when we can’t see it).
Friday night into Saturday morning, November 22 to 23, the bright star Regulus will appear near the waning half-Moon. As Regulus rises on the east-northeastern horizon (at 11:29 PM EST) it will be 9 degrees below the Moon, with Mars farther to the upper right and Pollux beyond Mars. By the time the Moon reaches its highest for the night (at 5:49 AM) Regulus will be 7 degrees to the lower left, and morning twilight will begin 8 minutes later (at 5:57 AM).
Saturday night into Sunday morning, November 23 to 24, the waning crescent Moon will have shifted to the other side of Regulus. When the Moon rises on the east-northeastern horizon (at 11:38 PM EST) Regulus will be 4 degrees to the upper right of the Moon. The pair will separate as the night progresses. By the time morning twilight begins (at 5:58 AM) Regulus will be 6.5 degrees to the upper right of the Moon.
Sunday evening, November 24, will be the last evening the planet Mercury will be above the west-southwestern horizon as evening twilight ends, although it should remain visible in the glow of dusk before twilight ends for a few more evenings as it dims and shifts towards its passage between the Earth and the Sun on December 5.
Tuesday morning, November 26, at 6:57 AM EST, the Moon will be at apogee, its farthest from the Earth for this orbit.
On Wednesday morning, November 27, the bright star Spica will appear near the waning crescent Moon. As Spica rises on the east-southeastern horizon (at 3:41 AM EST) it will be a degree below the Moon. As morning progresses the Moon will shift towards Spica, and for much of the Eastern USA and Canada the Moon will block Spica from view. See http://www.lunar-occultations.com/iota/bstar/1127zc1925.htm for a map and information on the areas that will be able to see this eclipse. Times will vary by location, but for the Washington, DC area, Spica will vanish behind the illuminated limb of the Moon at 5:34 AM and the Moon will still be blocking Spica from sight as morning twilight begins at 6:02 AM.
Early Sunday morning, December 1, at 1:22 AM EST, will be the new Moon, when the Moon passes between the Earth and the Sun and will not be visible from the Earth.
The day of or the day after the New Moon marks the start of the new month for most moon-based calendars. The eleventh month of the Chinese year of the Dragon starts on Sunday, December 1. Sundown on Sunday, December 1, marks the start of Kislev in the Hebrew calendar. Hanukkah will begin towards the end of Kislev. In the Islamic calendar the months traditionally start with the first sighting of the waxing crescent Moon. Many Muslim communities now follow the Umm al-Qura Calendar of Saudi Arabia, which uses astronomical calculations to start months in a more predictable way. Using this calendar, sundown on Sunday, December 1, will probably mark the beginning of Jumādā ath-Thāniyah, also known as Jumādā al-ʾĀkhirah.
Wednesday evening, December 4, the bright planet Venus will appear 3 degrees to the upper right of the waxing crescent Moon. The Moon will be 15 degrees above the southwestern horizon as evening twilight ends (at 5:49 PM EST). The Moon will set 2 hours later (at 7:46 PM).
Thursday evening, December 5, the planet Mercury will be passing between the Earth and the Sun as seen from the Earth, called inferior conjunction. Planets that orbit inside of the orbit of Earth can have two types of conjunctions with the Sun, inferior (when passing between the Earth and the Sun) and superior (when passing on the far side of the Sun as seen from the Earth). Mercury will be shifting from the evening sky to the morning sky and will begin emerging from the glow of dawn on the eastern horizon in less than a week.
Saturday afternoon, December 7, the planet Jupiter will be at its closest and brightest for the year, called “opposition” because it will be opposite the Earth from the Sun, effectively a “full” Jupiter. Jupiter will be 12 degrees above the east-northeastern horizon as evening twilight ends (at 5:49 PM EST), will reach its highest in the sky right around midnight (11:59 PM), and will be 11 degrees above the west-northwestern horizon as morning twilight begins (Sunday morning at 6:11 AM). Only planets that orbit farther from the Sun than the Earth can be seen at opposition.
Saturday evening, December 7, the planet Saturn will appear to the upper left of the waxing crescent Moon. They will be 6 degrees apart as evening twilight ends (at 5:49 PM EST). Saturn will appear to shift clockwise and closer to the Moon, so that by the time the Moon sets 5.5 hours later (at 11:18 PM) Saturn will be 3.5 degrees above the Moon on the west-southwestern horizon. For a swath in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Asia the Moon will actually block Saturn from view, see http://lunar-occultations.com/iota/planets/1208saturn.htm for a map and information on the locations that can see this eclipse.
Sunday morning, December 8, the Moon will appear half-full as it reaches its first quarter at 10:27 AM EST (when we can’t see it).
Thursday morning, December 12, will be the first morning the planet Mercury will be above the east-southeastern horizon as morning twilight begins (at 6:14 AM EST).
Thursday morning, December 12, at 8:18 AM EST, the Moon will be at perigee, its closest to the Earth for this orbit.
Friday evening into Saturday morning, December 13 to 14, the Pleiades star cluster will appear near the full Moon. This may best be viewed with binoculars, as the brightness of the full Moon may make it hard to see the stars in this star cluster. As evening twilight ends (at 5:50 PM EST), the Pleiades will appear 4 degrees to the upper right of the full Moon. By the time the Moon reaches its highest for the night (at 10:49 PM), the Pleiades will be 6 degrees to the right. By about 2 AM the Pleiades will be 8 degrees to the lower right of the Moon and they will continue to separate as the morning progresses.
As mentioned above, one of the three major meteor showers of the year, the Geminids (004 GEM), will peak Saturday morning, December 14. The light of the nearly full Moon will interfere. In a good year, this shower can produce 150 visible meteors per hour under ideal conditions, but this will not be a good year. For the Washington, DC area the MeteorActive app predicts that at about 2 AM EST on the morning of December 14, under bright suburban sky conditions, the peak rate from the Geminids and all other background sources might reach 20 meteors per hour. See the meteor summary above for suggestions for meteor viewing.
Saturday morning, December 14, the full Moon, the bright planet Jupiter, and the bright star Aldebaran will form a triangle. As Aldebaran sets on the west-northwestern horizon (at 6:10 AM EST) it will be 9 degrees to the lower left of the Moon with Jupiter 7 degrees to the upper left of the Moon. Morning twilight will begin 6 minutes later.
Saturday evening, December 15, the full Moon will have shifted to the other side of Jupiter. Jupiter will be 6 degrees to the right of the Moon as evening twilight ends (at 5:50 PM EST) and the pair will separate as the night progresses.
The full Moon after next will be Sunday morning, December 15, 2024, at 4:02 AM EST. This will be Saturday evening from Alaska Time westwards to the International Date Line. The Moon will appear full for about 3 days around this time, from Friday evening through Monday morning, making this a full Moon weekend.
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By NASA
Earth Observer Earth Home Earth Observer Home Editor’s Corner Feature Articles Meeting Summaries News Science in the News Calendars In Memoriam More Archives 22 min read
NASA’s BlueFlux Campaign Supports Blue Carbon Management in South Florida
Photo 1. A Mangrove stand lines the bank of Shark River, an Everglades distributary that carries water into the Gulf of Mexico’s Ponce De Leon Bay. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Introduction
Along the southernmost rim of the Florida Peninsula, the arching prop roots or “knees” of red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle) line the coast – see Photo 1. Where they dip below the water’s surface, fish lay their eggs, enjoying the protection from predators that the trees provide. Among their branches, wading birds, such as the great blue heron and the roseate spoonbill establish rookeries to rear their young. The tangled matrix of roots collects organic matter and ocean-bound sediments, adding little-by-little to the coastline and shielding inland biology from the erosive force of the sea. In these ways, mangroves are equal parts products and engineers of their environment, but their ecological value extends far beyond this local sphere of influence.
Mangroves are an important carbon dioxide (CO2) sink – responsible for removing CO2 from the atmosphere with impressive efficiency. Current estimates suggest mangroves sequester CO2 10 times faster and store up to 5 times more carbon than rainforests and old-growth forests. But as part of the ever-changing line between land and sea, they’re exceptionally vulnerable to climate disturbances such as sea level rise, hurricanes, and changes in ocean salinity. As these threats intensify, Florida’s sub-tropical wetlands – and their role as a critical sink of CO2 – face an uncertain future.
NASA’s BlueFlux Campaign, a three-year (2021–2024), $1.5-million project operating under the agency’s Carbon Monitoring System, used field, aircraft, and satellite data to study the impact of both natural and anthropogenic pressures on South Florida’s coastal ecology. BlueFlux consists of a series of ground-based and airborne fieldwork campaigns, providing a framework for the development of a satellite-based data product that will estimate daily rates of surface-atmosphere gas transfer or gaseous flux across coastal ecosystems in Florida and the Caribbean. “The goal is to enhance our understanding of how blue-carbon ecosystems fit into the global carbon market,” said Ben Poulter [NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)—Project Lead]. “BlueFlux will ultimately answer scientific questions and provide policy-related solutions on the role that coastal wetlands play in reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.”
This article provides an overview of BlueFlux fieldwork operations – see Figure 1 – and outlines how the project might help refine global GHG budgets and support the restoration of Florida’s wetland ecology.
Figure 1. A map of South Florida overlaying a true-color image captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board NASA’s Terra satellite. Red triangles mark locations of primary ground-based fieldwork operations described in this article. Figure Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) BlueFlux Ground-based Fieldwork
Across the street from the Flamingo Visitors center, at the base of the Everglades National Park, there was once a thriving mangrove population. Now, the skeletal remains of the trees form one of the Everglades’ largest ghost forests – see Photo 2. When Hurricane Irma made landfall in September 2017, violent winds battered the shore and a storm surge swept across the coast, decimating large swaths of the mangrove forest. Most of Florida’s mangroves recovered swiftly. But seven years later, this site and others like it have seen little to no growth.
“At this point, I doubt they’ll ever recover,” said David Lagomasino [East Carolina University].
Photo 2. A mangrove ghost forest is all that remains of a once-thriving mangrove stand, preserving an image of Hurricane Irma’s lasting impact on South Florida’s wetland ecology. Most of the ghost forests in the region are a product of natural depressions in the landscape that collect saltwater following severe storms. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Lagomasino was in the Everglades this summer conducting research as part of the fifth leg of BlueFlux fieldwork – see Photo 3. His team focused on measuring how changes in wetland ecology affect the sequestration and emission rates of both CO2 and methane (CH4). In areas where vegetative health is severely degraded, like in ghost forests, a general decline in CO2 uptake is accompanied by an increase in CH4 production, the net effect of which could dramatically amplify the atmosphere’s ability to trap heat. Ghost forests offer an example at one end of an extreme, but defining the way more subtle gradients among wetland variables – such as changes in water level, tree height, canopy coverage, ocean salinity, or mangrove species distribution – might influence flux is harder to tease out of the limited data available.
Photo 3. Assistant professor David Lagomasino and Ph.D. candidate Daystar Babanawo [both from East Carolina University] explore the lower Everglades by boat. Due to the relative inaccessibility of the region, measurements of flux in wetland ecosystems are limited. The plant life here consists almost entirely of Florida’s three Mangrove species (red, black, and white), which are among the only vegetation that can withstand the brackish waters characteristic of coastal wetlands. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) In the Everglades, flux measurements are confined to a handful of eddy covariance towers – or flux towers – constructed as part of the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network.
The first flux tower in this network, erected in June 2003, stands near the edge of Shark River at a research site called SRS-6, short for Shark River Slough site 6. A short walk from the riverbank, across a snaking path of rain-weathered, wooden planks, sits a small platform where the flux tower is anchored to the forest floor – see Photo 4. About 20 m (65 feet) above the platform, the tower breaches the canopy, where a suite of instruments continuously measures wind velocity, temperature, humidity, and the vertical movement of trace atmospheric gases, such as water vapor (H2Ov), CO2, and CH4. It’s these measurements collectively that are used to calculate flux.
Photo 4. At SRS-6, an eddy covariance tower measures C02 and CH4 flux among a dense grove of red, black, and white mangroves. The term eddy covariance refers to the statistical technique used to calculate gaseous flux based on the meteorological and scalar atmospheric data collected by the flux towers. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) “Hundreds of research papers have come from this site,” said Lagomasino. The abundance of research generated from the data captured at SRS-6 speaks in part to the value of the measurements that the tower makes. It also points to the gaps that exist just beyond each tower’s reach. A significant goal of the BlueFlux campaign is to explain flux on a scale that isn’t covered by existing data – to fill in the gaps between the towers.
One way to do that is by gathering data by hand.
On Lagomasino’s boat is a broad, black case carrying a tool called a Russian peat auger. The instrument is designed to extract core samples from soft soils – see Photo 5.
Everglades peat, which is made almost entirely of the partially decomposed roots, stems, and leaves of the surrounding mangroves, offers a perfect study subject. Each thin, half-cylinder sample gets sealed and shipped back to the lab, where it will be sliced into flat discs. The discs will be analyzed for their age and carbon content by Lagomasino’s team and partners at Yale University. These cores are like biomass time capsules. In Florida’s mangrove forests, a 1-m (3-ft) core might represent more than 300 years of carbon accumulation. On average, a 1 to 3 mm (0.04 to 0.12 in) layer of matter is added to the forest floor each year, building up over time like sand filling an hourglass.
Photo 5. David Lagomasino holds a Russian peat auger containing a sample of Everglades peat. The primary source of the soil’s elevated carbon content – evident from its coarse, fibrous texture – is the partially decayed plant tissue of the surrounding mangroves. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Although coastal wetlands account for less than 2% of the planet’s land-surface area, they house a disproportionate amount of blue carbon – carbon stored in marine and coastal environments. In the Everglades, the source of this immense accumulation of organic material is the quick-growing vegetation – see Photo 6.
When a CO2 molecule finds its way through one of the many small, porous openings on a mangrove leaf – called stomata – its next step is one of creation, where it plays a part in the miraculous transformation of inorganic matter into living tissue. Inside the leaf’s chloroplasts, energy from stored sunlight kickstarts a long chain of chemical reactions that will ultimately divide CO2 into its constituent parts. Oxygen atoms are returned to the atmosphere as the byproduct of photosynthesis, but the carbon stays behind to help build the sugar molecules that will fuel new plant growth. In short, the same carbon that once flowed through the atmosphere defines the molecular structure of all wetland vegetation. When a plant dies or a gust of wind pulls a leaf to the forest floor, this carbon-based matter finds its way into the soil, where it can stay locked in place for thousands of years thanks to a critical wetland ingredient: water.
The inundated, anoxic – an environment deficient or absent of oxygen – peat soils characteristic of wetlands host microbial populations that are uniquely adapted to their environment. In these low- to no-oxygen conditions, the prevailing microbiota consumes organic material slowly, leading to an accumulation of carbon in the soil. As wetland conditions change, the soil’s microbial balance shifts. For example, a decline in water level, which can increase the oxygen-content of the soil, produces conditions favorable to aerobic bacteria. These oxygen-breathing lifeforms consume organic matter far more rapidly than their anaerobic counterparts – and release more CO2 into the atmosphere as a result.
Water level isn’t the only environmental condition that influences rates of carbon sequestration. The soil cores collected during the campaign will be analyzed alongside records of interrelated variables such as water salinity, sea surface height, and temperature to understand not just the timescales associated with blue carbon development in mangrove forests but how and why rates of soil deposition change in response to specific environmental pressures. In many parts of the Everglades, accumulated peat can reach depths of up to 3 m (9.8 feet) – holding thousands of years’ worth of insights that would otherwise be lost to time.
Photo 6. Mangroves are viviparous plants. Their propagules – or seedlings – germinate while still attached to their parent tree. Propagules that fall to the forest floor are primed to begin life as soon as they hit the ground. But even those that fall into bodies of water and are carried out to sea can float for months before finding a suitable place to lay their roots. The high growth rate of mangroves contributes to the efficiency with which mangrove forests remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Lola Fatoyinbo [NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Biospheric Sciences Lab] and Peter Raymond [Yale University’s School of the Environment] led additional fieldwork teams tasked with collecting forest inventory data in locations where vegetation was dead, regenerating, or recently disturbed by severe weather events. A terrestrial laser system was used to obtain three-dimensional (3D) images of mangrove forest structure, which provided maps of stem density, vertical distributions of biomass, and stand volume surface area. Spectroradiometers were also used to acquire visible, near infrared, and shortwave infrared spectra, delivering detailed information about species composition, vegetative health, water levels, and soil properties.
To tie these variables to flux, the researchers made measurements using chambers – see Figure 2 – designed to adhere neatly to points where significant rates of gas exchange occur, (i.e., mangrove lenticels—cell-sized breathing pores found on tree bark and root systems— and the forest floor). As an example, black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) possess unique aerial roots called pneumatophores that, similar to the prop roots of red mangroves, provide them with access to atmospheric oxygen. Pneumatophores sprout vertically from the forest floor and line up like matchsticks around the base of each tree. The team used cylindrical chambers to measure the transfer of gas between a single pneumatophore and the atmosphere – see Figure 2a.
These observations are archived in NASA’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) and publicly available to researchers who wish to monitor and identify trends in the data. After nearly three years of field work, these data have already given scientists a more detailed picture of how Florida’s wetlands are responding to environmental pressures.
Research based on data from early BlueFlux fieldwork deployments confirms that aerobic, methanogenic microbes living in flooded, wetland soils naturally release a significant amount of CH4 as a byproduct of the process by which they create their own energy.
“We’re especially interested in this methane part,” said Fatoyinbo. “It’s the least understood, and there’s a lot more of it than we previously thought.” Fatoyinbo also noted a “significant difference in CO2 and CH4 fluxes between healthy mangroves and degraded ones.” In areas where mangrove health is in decline, due to reduced freshwater levels or as the result of damage sustained during severe weather events, “you can end up with more ‘bad’ gases in the atmosphere,” she said. Since CH4 is roughly 80 times more potent than CO2 over 100-year period, these emissions can undermine some of the net benefits that blue carbon ecosystems provide as a sink of atmospheric carbon.
Figure 2. To directly measure the emission and sequestration rates of CO2 and CH4 in mangrove forests, chambers were designed to adhere to specific targets where gas exchange occurs (i.e. mangrove lenticles, root systems, and the forest floor). Credit: GSFC Airborne Research Teams Measure GHG Flux from Above
Florida’s mangrove forests blanket roughly 966 km2 (600 mi2) of coastal terrain. Even with over 20 years of tower data and the extensive measurements from ground-based fieldwork operations, making comprehensive inferences about the entire ecosystem is tenuous work. To provide flux data at scale – and help quantify the atmospheric influence that Florida’s coastal wetlands carry as a whole – NASA’s BlueFlux campaign relies on a relatively new, airborne technique for measuring flux – see Photo 7.
Photo 7. At the Miami Executive Airfield, members of NASA’s BlueFlux airborne science team stand in front of the Beechcraft 200 King Air before the final flight of the fieldwork campaign. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Between 2022 and 2024, over 5 deployments, the team conducted more than 34 carefully planned flights – see Figure 3 – collecting flux data over Florida’s wetlands by plane. Each flight is equipped with a payload known colloquially as “CARAFE,” short for the CARbon Airborne Flux Experiment, which is the airborne campaign’s primary means of data collection. “This is one of the first times an instrument like this has flown over a mangrove forest anywhere in the world,” said Fatoyinbo. “So, it’s really just kind of groundbreaking.”
Figure 3. An example of flight paths from eight BlueFlux airborne deployments flown in April 2023. The flight paths are highlighted in blue. The legs of each flight where flux measurements were taken are highlighted in green. Accurate flux calculations rely on stable measurements of the aircraft’s speed and orientation, which is why the flux legs of each flight are flown in straight lines. Credit: GSFC In the air, GHG concentrations are measured using a well-established technique called cavity ringdown spectroscopy, which involves firing a laser into a small cavity where it will ping back and forth between two highly reflective mirrors. Most gas-phase molecules absorb light at specific wavelengths, depending on their atomic makeup. Since the target molecules in this case are CO2 and CH4, the laser is configured to emit light at a wavelength that only these molecules will absorb. As the laser bounces between the mirrors, a fraction of the light is absorbed by any molecules present in the chamber. The rate of the light’s decay is used to estimate CO2 and CH4 concentrations, generating a time series with continuous readings of gas concentrations, measured in parts per million – see Photo 8. This information is combined with measurements of vertical wind velocity to calculate a corresponding time series of fluxes along the flight track. While these measurements are important on their own, a priority for the airborne team is understanding GHG fluxes in relation to what’s happening on the ground.
Photo 8. The CARAFE payload is responsible for taking readings of atmospheric CO2, CH4, and H2Ov levels using a wind probe and two optical spectroscopy instruments manufactured by Picarro: the G2401m Gas Concentration Analyzer and the G2311f Gas Concentration Analyzer. The readings pictured above were made by the G2311f, which measures gas concentrations at a faster rate than the G2401m. The G2401m makes slower but more stable measurements, which are necessary for verifying the accuracy of measurements made by the G2311f. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Unlike flux towers, which only collect data within a 100 m2 (328 ft2) “footprint,” airborne readings have a footprint that can stretch up to 1 km (0.6 mi) in upwind directions. The plane’s speed, position, and orientation are used to help link flux data to fixed points along the flight’s path – so the team can make comparisons between aerial measurements and those made by the ground-based towers – see Photo 9.
“One challenge with that is the flux towers are much lower to the ground, and their footprint is much smaller,” said Glenn Wolfe [GSFC—BlueFlux Flight Lead]. “So, we have to be really careful with our airborne observations, to make sure they closely resemble our ground-based measurements.”
Part of decoding the airborne data involves overlaying each footprint with detailed maps of different surface properties, such as vegetation cover, soil water depth, or leaf-area index, so the team can constrain the measurements and assign fluxes to specific sources – whether its mangroves, sawgrass, or even water.
Photo 9. The BlueFlux airborne science team collects flux measurements from 90m (300ft) above Florida’s mangrove forests. Photo credit: Nathan Marder/NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Data Upscaling – Making Daily Flux Predictions from Space
The coupling of BlueFlux’s ground-based and airborne data provides the framework for the production of a broader, regional image of GHG flux.
“The eddy flux towers give us information about the temporal variability,” said Cheryl Doughty [GSFC]. “And the airborne campaign gives us this great intermediate dataset that allows us to go from individual trees to a much larger area.”
Doughty is now using BlueFlux data to train a remote-sensing data product, the prototype of which is called Daily Flux Predictions for South Florida. The product’s underlying model relies on machine learning algorithms and an ensemble modeling technique called random forest regression. It will make flux predictions based on surface reflectance data captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), an instrument that flies on NASA’s polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra satellites – see Figure 4.
“We’re really at the mercy of the data that’s out there,” said Doughty. “One of the things we’re trying to produce as part of this project is a daily archive of fluxes, so MODIS is an amazing resource, because it has over 20 years of data at a daily temporal resolution.”
This archival flux data will help researchers explain how fluxes change in relation to processes that are directly described by MODIS surface reflectance data, including sea-level rise, land use, water management, and disturbances from hurricanes and fires.
Figure 4. Sample of methane flux upscaling, in which MODIS surface reflectance retrievals are used to predict CH4 flux for South Florida at a regional scale [bottom row, left]. The model inputs rely on a composite of MODIS Nadir Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF)-Adjusted Radiance (NBAR) measurements from all available MODIS land bands: [top row, left to right]: red (620–670 nm), green (545–565 nm), blue (459–479 nm); [middle row, left to right] near infrared 1, or NIR1 (841–876 nm), NIR2 (1230–1250 nm), shortwave IR 1, or SWIR1 (1628–1652 nm), and SWIR 2 (2105–2155 nm). The Everglades National Park boundary is indicated on each image with a white line. Output of the model is shown [bottom row, left] as well as a comparison between modeled fluxes of MODIS NBAR with Terra and Aqua [bottom row, right]. Credit: GSFC To help validate the model, researchers must reformat flux measurements from the airborne campaign to match the daily temporal resolution and 500m2 (0.3mi2) spatial resolution of MODIS reflectance retrievals.
“It’s best practice to meet the data at the coarsest resolution,” said Doughty. “So, we have to take an average of the hourly estimates to match MODIS’ daily scale.”
The matching process is slightly more complicated for spatial datasets. BlueFlux’s airborne flux measurements produce roughly 20 data points for each 500 m2 (0.3 mi2) area, the same resolution as a single MODIS pixel.
“We’re essentially taking an average of all those CARAFE points to get an estimate that corresponds to one pixel,” said Doughty.
This symmetry is critical, allowing the team to test, train, and tune the model using measurements that capture what’s really happening on the ground – ensuring the accuracy of flux measurements generated from satellite data alone.
Researchers don’t expect the model to serve as a perfect reconstruction of reality. The heterogenous nature of Florida’s wetland terrain – which consists of a patchwork of sawgrass marshland, mangrove forests, hardwood hammocks, and freshwater swamps – contributes to high degree of variability in CO2 removal rates within and across its distinct regions. The daily flux product accounts for some of this complexity by making hundreds of calculations at a time, each with slightly different parameters based on in-situ measurements.
“The goal isn’t to just give people one flux measurement but an estimate of the uncertainty that is so inherent to these wetlands,” explained Doughty.
The prototype of the product will be operational by early 2025 and accessible to the public through NASA’s ORNL DAAC. Doughty hopes it will help stakeholders and decision makers evaluate policies related to water management, land use, and conservation that might impact critical stocks of blue carbon.
From Drainage to Restoration in the Florida Everglades
In the late 19th century, land developers were drawn to South Florida, where they hoped the fertile soil and tropical climate could support year-round cultivation of commodities such as exotic fruits, vegetables, and sugar cane. There was just one thing standing in the way – the water. If they could find a way to tame Florida’s wilderness, to drain the wetland of its excess water, Florida would offer Americans a new agricultural frontier.
Progress was made incrementally, but the Everglades drainage project idled for more than 50 years as its organizers wrestled with the literal and political morass surrounding South Florida’s wetland topography. It was mother nature’s hand that ultimately accelerated the drainage project. In 1926 and 1928, two large hurricanes tore through the barrier along Lake Okeechobee’s southern shore built to prevent water from spilling onto the newly settled, small-scale farmland just south of the lake. The second of the two storms – 1928’s Okeechobee Hurricane – made landfall in early September and resulted in nearly 3,000 recorded fatalities. In some areas, the torrent of flood water was deep enough that even those who sought refuge from the flood on the roofs of their homes were swept away by the current. The federal government was forced to step in.
By 1938, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers had completed construction of the Hoover Dike, adding to a collection of four canals responsible for siphoning water away from Lake Okeechobee’s floodplain and into the Atlantic Ocean. Seasonal flooding was brought under control, but the complete reclamation of South Florida’s wetlands proved more challenging than anticipated. As water levels fell and freshly cleared lands dried out, the high organic content of the soil fueled tremendous peat and muck fires that could burn for days, spreading through underground seams where water once flowed. In some areas, fires consumed the entire topsoil layer – exposing the limestone substrata to the atmosphere for the first time in thousands of years. The engineers in charge of Florida’s early wetland reclamation projects underestimated the value of the state’s hydrological system and overestimated its capacity to withstand human interference.
“Those initial four canals were enough to drain the everglades three times over,” said Fred Sklar [South Florida Water Management District—Everglades System Sciences Director]. “And they still exist, but now there are more than seven million people who rely on them for drinking water and flood control.”
Today, much of the Water Management District’s work involves unwinding the damage wrought by earlier drainage efforts.
“One thing we’re trying to do is make sure these peat fires never happen again,” said Sklar.
But restoring natural water flow to the Everglades – which is critical to the region’s ecological health – isn’t an option. Even if drainage could be reversed, it would subject Florida’s residents to the same flood risks that made drainage a priority. Some residents, including members of the Miccosukee and Seminole tribes, live directly alongside or within Everglades wilderness areas, where the risk of flooding is even greater than it is in the state’s highly populated coastal communities. These areas are also out of reach of the Water Management District’s existing infrastructure. It’s not as simple as turning the tap on and off.
Photo 10. The Tamiami Trail Canal runs across the Florida Peninsula from west to east, towards a saltwater treatment facility near the Miami River. Construction was completed in 1928, shortly after the first four drainage canals opened. It quickly became apparent that the canal and its adjacent roadway dramatically impede water flow to the Everglades wilderness areas to their south, cutting off the region’s vegetation and wildlife from a critical source of freshwater. New modifications to the canal are currently underway, which aim to introduce a hydrological regime that more closely resembles the pre-drainage system. Photo credit: U.S. National Park Service Florida’s Water Management District works with federal agencies, including the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, to monitor and govern the flow of Florida’s freshwater. The District has overseen the construction and management of dozens of canals, dikes, levees, dredges, and pumps over the last half-century that offer a higher degree of control over Florida’s complex hydrological network – see Photo 10.
“The goal is to restore as much acreage as we can, but we also need to restore it functionally, without degrading the whole system or putting residents at risk,” summarized Sklar. “To do this effectively, we need a detailed understanding of how the hydrology functions and how it influences all of these other systems, such as carbon sequestration.”
Since the 1920s, more than half of Florida’s original wetland coverage has been lost. The present system also carries 65% less peat coverage and 77% less stored carbon than it did prior to drainage. As atmospheric CO2 concentrations climb at unprecedented rates, an accompanying rise in sea levels, severe weather, and ocean salinity all present serious threats to Florida’s wetland ecology – see Figure 5.
“We’re worried about losing that stored carbon,” said Poulter. “But blue carbon also offers tremendous opportunities for climate mitigation if conservation and restoration are properly supported by science.”
Figure 5. A map of the BlueFlux study region, showing mangrove extent (green) and the paths of tropical storms and hurricanes from 2011 to 2021 (red). These storms drive losses in mangrove forest coverage – the result of erosion and wind damage. The inset regions at the top of the image highlight proposed targets for the airborne component of NASA’s BlueFlux Campaign. Figure credit: GSFC Conclusion – The Future of Flux
Every few years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases emissions data and budget reports that have important policy implications related to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to between 1.5°C (2.7°F) and 2°C (3.6°F) compared to pre-industrial levels. Refining the accuracy of global carbon budgets is paramount to reaching that goal, and wetland ecosystems – which have been historically under-represented in climate research – are an important part of the equation.
Early estimates based on BlueFlux fieldwork deployments and upscaled using MODIS surface reflectance data suggest that wetland CH4 emissions in South Florida offset CO2 removal in the region by about 5% based on a 100-year CH4 warming potential, resulting in a net annual CO2 removal of 31.8 Tg (3.18 million metric tons) per year. This is a small fraction of total CO2 emissions in the U.S. and an even smaller fraction of global emissions. In 2023, an estimated 34,800 Tg (34.8 billion metric tons) of CO2 were released into the atmosphere. But relative to their size, the CO2 removal services provided by tropical wetlands are hardly dismissible.
“We’re finding that massive amounts of CO2 are removed and substantial amounts of CH4 are produced, but overall, these ecosystems provide a net climate benefit by removing more greenhouse gases than they produce,” Poulter said.
Access to a daily satellite data product also provides researchers with the means to make more regular adjustments to budgets based on how Florida’s mutable landscape is responding to climate disturbances and restoration efforts in real time.
With the right resources in hand, the scientists who dedicate their careers to understanding and restoring South Florida’s ecology share a hopeful outlook.
“Nature and people can absolutely coexist,” said Meenakshi Chabba [The Everglades Foundation—Ecologist and Resilience Scientist]. “But what we need is good science and good management to reach that goal.”
The Everglades Foundation provides scientific evaluation and guidance to the elected officials and governmental institutions responsible for the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), a federal program approved by Congress in 2000 that outlines a 30-year plan to restore Florida’s wetland ecology. The Foundation sees NASA’s BlueFlux campaign as an important accompaniment to that goal.
“The [Daily Flux Predictions for South Florida] data product is incredibly valuable, because it provides us with an indicator of the health of the whole system,” said Steve Davis [The Everglades Foundation—Chief Science Officer]. “We know how valuable the wetlands are, but we need this reliable science from NASA and the BlueFlux Campaign to help translate those benefits into something we can use to reach people as well as policymakers.”
Researchers hope the product can inform decisions about the management of Florida’s wetlands, the preservation of which is not only a necessity but – to many – a responsibility.
“These impacts are of our own doing,” added Chabba. “So, now it’s incumbent upon us to make these changes and correct the mistakes of the past.”
Next, the BlueFlux team is shifting their focus to what they call BlueFlux 2. This stage of the project centers around further analysis of the data collected during fieldwork campaigns and outlines the deployment of the beta version of Daily BlueFlux Predictions for South Florida, which will help generate a more accurate evaluation of flux for the many wetland ecosystems that exist beyond Florida’s borders.
“We’re trying to contribute to a better understanding of global carbon markets and inspire further and more ambitious investments in these critical stocks of blue carbon,” said Poulter. “First, we want to scale this work to the Caribbean, where we have these great maps of mangrove distribution but limited data on flux.”
An additional BlueFlux fieldwork deployment is slated for 2026, with plans to make flux measurements above sites targeted by the state for upcoming restoration initiatives, such as the Everglades Agricultural Area Environmental Protection District. In the Agricultural Area, construction is underway on a series of reservoirs that will store excess water during wet seasons and provide a reserve source of water for wildlife and residents during dry seasons. As the landscape evolves, BlueFlux will help local officials evaluate how Florida’s wetlands are responding to efforts designed to protect the state’s most precious natural resource – and all those who depend on it.
Nathan Marder
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Global Science and Technology Inc.
nathan.marder@nasa.gov
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