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By NASA
5 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
This bar graph shows GISTEMP summer global temperature anomalies for 2023 (shown in yellow) and 2024 (shown in red). June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The white lines indicate the range of estimated temperatures. The warmer-than-usual summers continue a long-term trend of warming, driven primarily by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. NASA/Peter Jacobs The agency also shared new state-of-the-art datasets that allow scientists to track Earth’s temperature for any month and region going back to 1880 with greater certainty.
August 2024 set a new monthly temperature record, capping Earth’s hottest summer since global records began in 1880, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The announcement comes as a new analysis upholds confidence in the agency’s nearly 145-year-old temperature record.
June, July, and August 2024 combined were about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (about 0.1 degrees Celsius) warmer globally than any other summer in NASA’s record — narrowly topping the record just set in 2023. Summer of 2024 was 2.25 F (1.25 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980, and August alone was 2.34 F (1.3 C) warmer than average. June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
“Data from multiple record-keepers show that the warming of the past two years may be neck and neck, but it is well above anything seen in years prior, including strong El Niño years,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS. “This is a clear indication of the ongoing human-driven warming of the climate.”
NASA assembles its temperature record, known as the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), from surface air temperature data acquired by tens of thousands of meteorological stations, as well as sea surface temperatures from ship- and buoy-based instruments. It also includes measurements from Antarctica. Analytical methods consider the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could skew the calculations.
The GISTEMP analysis calculates temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperature. A temperature anomaly shows how far the temperature has departed from the 1951 to 1980 base average.
New assessment of temperature record
The summer record comes as new research from scientists at the Colorado School of Mines, National Science Foundation, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA), and NASA further increases confidence in the agency’s global and regional temperature data.
“Our goal was to actually quantify how good of a temperature estimate we’re making for any given time or place,” said lead author Nathan Lenssen, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines and project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
This visualization of GISTEMP monthly temperatures with the seasonal cycle derived from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s MERRA-2 model compares 2023 (in red) and 2024 (in purple), with a transparent ribbon around each indicating the confidence intervals from the new GISTEMP uncertainty calculation. The white lines show monthly temperatures from the years 1961 to 2022. June, July, and August 2024 combined were about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (about 0.1 degrees Celsius) warmer globally than any other summer in NASA’s record — narrowly topping the record set in 2023.NASA/Peter Jacobs/Katy Mersmann The researchers affirmed that GISTEMP is correctly capturing rising surface temperatures on our planet and that Earth’s global temperature increase since the late 19th century — summer 2024 was about 2.7 F (1.51 C) warmer than the late 1800s — cannot be explained by any uncertainty or error in the data.
The authors built on previous work showing that NASA’s estimate of global mean temperature rise is likely accurate to within a tenth of a degree Fahrenheit in recent decades. For their latest analysis, Lenssen and colleagues examined the data for individual regions and for every month going back to 1880.
Estimating the unknown
Lenssen and colleagues provided a rigorous accounting of statistical uncertainty within the GISTEMP record. Uncertainty in science is important to understand because we cannot take measurements everywhere. Knowing the strengths and limitations of observations helps scientists assess if they’re really seeing a shift or change in the world.
The study confirmed that one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in the GISTEMP record is localized changes around meteorological stations. For example, a previously rural station may report higher temperatures as asphalt and other heat-trapping urban surfaces develop around it. Spatial gaps between stations also contribute some uncertainty in the record. GISTEMP accounts for these gaps using estimates from the closest stations.
Previously, scientists using GISTEMP estimated historical temperatures using what’s known in statistics as a confidence interval — a range of values around a measurement, often read as a specific temperature plus or minus a few fractions of degrees. The new approach uses a method known as a statistical ensemble: a spread of the 200 most probable values. While a confidence interval represents a level of certainty around a single data point, an ensemble tries to capture the whole range of possibilities.
The distinction between the two methods is meaningful to scientists tracking how temperatures have changed, especially where there are spatial gaps. For example: Say GISTEMP contains thermometer readings from Denver in July 1900, and a researcher needs to estimate what conditions were 100 miles away. Instead of reporting the Denver temperature plus or minus a few degrees, the researcher can analyze scores of equally probable values for southern Colorado and communicate the uncertainty in their results.
What does this mean for recent heat rankings?
Every year, NASA scientists use GISTEMP to provide an annual global temperature update, with 2023 ranking as the hottest year to date.
Other researchers affirmed this finding, including NOAA and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. These institutions employ different, independent methods to assess Earth’s temperature. Copernicus, for instance, uses an advanced computer-generated approach known as reanalysis.
The records remain in broad agreement but can differ in some specific findings. Copernicus determined that July 2023 was Earth’s hottest month on record, for example, while NASA found July 2024 had a narrow edge. The new ensemble analysis has now shown that the difference between the two months is smaller than the uncertainties in the data. In other words, they are effectively tied for hottest. Within the larger historical record the new ensemble estimates for summer 2024 were likely 2.52-2.86 degrees F (1.40-1.59 degrees C) warmer than the late 19th century, while 2023 was likely 2.34-2.68 degrees F (1.30-1.49 degrees C) warmer.
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Last Updated Sep 11, 2024 LocationGISS Related Terms
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By NASA
The Roscosmos Soyuz MS-26 spacecraft will launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to the International Space Station with (pictured left to right) NASA astronaut Don Pettit and Roscosmos cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Ivan Vagner.Credit: Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center NASA astronaut Don Pettit will launch aboard the Roscosmos Soyuz MS-26 spacecraft, accompanied by cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Ivan Vagner, to the International Space Station where they will join the Expedition 71 crew in advancing scientific research.
Pettit, Ovchinin, and Vagner will lift off at 12:23 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Sept. 11 (9:23 p.m. Baikonur time) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.
Coverage will stream on NASA+, the NASA app, and the agency’s website. Learn how to stream NASA content through a variety of platforms including social media.
After a two-orbit, three-hour trajectory to the station, the spacecraft will automatically dock at 3:33 p.m. at the orbiting laboratory’s Rassvet module. Shortly after, hatches will open between the spacecraft and the station.
Once aboard, the trio will join NASA astronauts Tracy C. Dyson, Mike Barratt, Matthew Dominick, Jeanette Epps, Butch Wilmore, and Suni Williams, as well as Roscosmos cosmonauts Nikolai Chub, Alexander Grebenkin, and Oleg Kononenko.
NASA’s coverage is as follows (all times Eastern and subject to change based on real-time operations):
11:15 a.m. – Launch coverage begins on NASA+, the NASA app, YouTube, and the agency’s website.
12:23 p.m. – Launch
2:30 p.m. – Rendezvous and docking coverage begins on NASA+, the NASA app, YouTube, and the agency’s website.
3:33 p.m. – Docking
5:30 p.m. – Hatch opening and welcome remarks coverage begins on NASA+, the NASA app, YouTube, and the agency’s website.
5:50 p.m. – Hatch opening
The trio will spend approximately six months aboard the orbital laboratory as Expedition 71 and 72 crew members before returning to Earth in the spring of 2025. This will be the fourth spaceflight for Pettit and Ovchinin, and the second for Vagner.
For more than two decades, people have lived and worked continuously aboard the International Space Station, advancing scientific knowledge, and making research breakthroughs that are not possible on Earth. The station is a critical testbed for NASA to understand and overcome the challenges of long-duration spaceflight and to expand commercial opportunities in low Earth orbit. As commercial companies focus on providing human space transportation services and destinations as part of a robust low Earth orbit economy, NASA is focusing more resources on deep space missions to the Moon as part of Artemis in preparation for future human missions to Mars.
Learn more about International Space Station research and operations at:
https://www.nasa.gov/station
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Joshua Finch / Claire O’Shea
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1100
joshua.a.finch@nasa.gov / claire.a.o’shea@nasa.gov
Sandra Jones
Johnson Space Center, Houston
281-483-5111
sandra.p.jones@nasa.gov
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Last Updated Sep 06, 2024 LocationNASA Headquarters Related Terms
International Space Station (ISS) Astronauts Donald R. Pettit Humans in Space ISS Research Johnson Space Center View the full article
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By European Space Agency
Video: 00:14:09 The Copernicus Sentinel-2C satellite lifted off on 5 September at 03:50 CEST (4 September 22:50 local time) aboard the last Vega rocket, flight VV24, from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana.
Sentinel-2C will continue the legacy of delivering high-resolution data that are essential to Copernicus – the Earth observation component of the EU Space Programme. Developed, built and operated by ESA, the Copernicus Sentinel-2 mission provides high-resolution optical imagery for a wide range of applications including land, water and atmospheric monitoring.
Sentinel-2C was the last liftoff for the Vega rocket – after 12 years of service this was the final flight, the original Vega is being retired to make way for an upgraded Vega-C.
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