Jump to content

NASA Analysis Finds Strong El Niño Could Bring Extra Floods This Winter


Recommended Posts

  • Publishers
Posted
1-sausalito-hwy-101-on-ramp-1.png?w=1906
An unusually high tide, called a King Tide, floods a highway on-ramp in Northern California in January 2023. Sea level rise and El Niños can exacerbate this type of flooding.
California King Tides Project

Such high-tide flooding that inundates roads and buildings along the west coast of the Americas tends to be uncommon outside of El Niño years, but that could change by the 2030s.

An analysis by NASA’s sea level change science team finds that if a strong El Niño develops this winter, cities along the western coasts of the Americas could see an increase in the frequency of high-tide flooding that can swamp roads and spill into low-lying buildings.

El Niño is a periodic climate phenomenon characterized by higher-than-normal sea levels and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. These conditions can spread poleward along the western coasts of the Americas. El Niño, which is still developing this year, can bring more rain than usual to the U.S. Southwest and drought to countries in the western Pacific like Indonesia. These impacts typically occur in January through March.

The NASA analysis finds that a strong El Niño could result in up to five instances of a type of flooding called a 10-year flood event this winter in cities including Seattle and San Diego. Places like La Libertad and Baltra in Ecuador could get up to three of these 10-year flood events this winter. This type of flooding doesn’t normally occur along the west coast of the Americas outside of El Niño years. The researchers note that by the 2030s, rising seas and climate change could result in these cities experiencing similar numbers of 10-year floods annually, with no El Niño required.

e-pia26181-swot-el-nino-peru.png?w=1264
Data from the SWOT satellite shows sea level anomalies – how much higher or lower sea levels are compared to the average height – off the coast of Ecuador and Peru on Aug. 12, 2023, and Oct. 3, 2023. The data indicates the development of an El Niño along the west coast of the Americas.
NASA/JPL-Caltech

“I’m a little surprised that the analysis found these 10-year events could become commonplace so quickly,” said Phil Thompson, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii and a member of NASA’s sea level change science team, which performed the analysis. “I would have thought maybe by the 2040s or 2050s.”

Ten-year floods are those that have a one in 10 chance of occurring in any given year. They’re a measure of how high local sea levels become: The extent of flooding in a particular city or community depends on several factors, including a region’s topography and the location of homes and infrastructure relative to the ocean. Ten-year floods can result in what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration classifies as moderate flooding, with some inundation of roads and buildings, and the possible need to evacuate people or move belongings to higher ground.

NASA’s coastal flooding analysis finds that by the 2030s, during strong El Niño years, cities on the west coast of the Americas could see up to 10 of these 10-year flood events. By the 2050s, strong El Niños may result in as many as 40 instances of these events in a given year.

Watching Sea Levels Rise

Water expands as it warms, so sea levels tend to be higher in places with warmer water. Researchers and forecasters monitor ocean temperatures as well as water levels to spot the formation and development of an El Niño.

“Climate change is already shifting the baseline sea level along coastlines around the world,” said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and lead for the agency’s sea level change science team.

Sea levels are rising in response to planetary warming, as Earth’s atmosphere and ocean are heating up and ice sheets and shelves melt. This has already increased the number of high-tide, or nuisance, flooding days coastal cities experience throughout the year. Phenomena like El Niños and storm surges, which temporarily boost sea levels, compound these effects.

Missions that monitor sea levels, including the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite and Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, help to monitor El Niños in the near term. SWOT in particular, collects data on sea levels right up to the coast, which can help to improve sea level rise projections. That kind of information could aid policymakers and planners in preparing their communities for rising seas in the next decades.

“As climate change accelerates, some cities will see flooding five to 10 times more often. SWOT will keep watch on these changes to ensure coastal communities are not caught off guard,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, SWOT program scientist and director of the ocean physics program at NASA Headquarters in Washington.  

To learn more about how NASA studies sea level, visit:

https://sealevel.nasa.gov/

News Media Contacts

Jane J. Lee / Andrew Wang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-0307 / 626-379-6874
jane.j.lee@jpl.nasa.gov / andrew.wang@jpl.nasa.gov

2023-162

View the full article

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Similar Topics

    • By NASA
      5 Min Read NASA’s Parker Solar Probe Makes History With Closest Pass to Sun
      An artist’s concept showing Parker Solar Probe. Credits:
      NASA/APL Operations teams have confirmed NASA’s mission to “touch” the Sun survived its record-breaking closest approach to the solar surface on Dec. 24, 2024.
      Breaking its previous record by flying just 3.8 million miles above the surface of the Sun, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe hurtled through the solar atmosphere at a blazing 430,000 miles per hour — faster than any human-made object has ever moved. A beacon tone received late on Dec. 26 confirmed the spacecraft had made it through the encounter safely and is operating normally.
      This pass, the first of more to come at this distance, allows the spacecraft to conduct unrivaled scientific measurements with the potential to change our understanding of the Sun.
      Flying this close to the Sun is a historic moment in humanity’s first mission to a star.
      Nicky fox
      NASA Associate Administrator, Science Mission Directorate
      “Flying this close to the Sun is a historic moment in humanity’s first mission to a star,” said Nicky Fox, who leads the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “By studying the Sun up close, we can better understand its impacts throughout our solar system, including on the technology we use daily on Earth and in space, as well as learn about the workings of stars across the universe to aid in our search for habitable worlds beyond our home planet.”
      NASA’s Parker Solar Probe survived its record-breaking closest approach to the solar surface on Dec. 24, 2024. Breaking its previous record by flying just 3.8 million miles above the surface of the Sun, the spacecraft hurtled through the solar atmosphere at a blazing 430,000 miles per hour — faster than any human-made object has ever moved.
      Credits: NASA This video can be freely shared and downloaded at https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14741.
      Parker Solar Probe has spent the last six years setting up for this moment. Launched in 2018, the spacecraft used seven flybys of Venus to gravitationally direct it ever closer to the Sun. With its last Venus flyby on Nov. 6, 2024, the spacecraft reached its optimal orbit. This oval-shaped orbit brings the spacecraft an ideal distance from the Sun every three months — close enough to study our Sun’s mysterious processes but not too close to become overwhelmed by the Sun’s heat and damaging radiation. The spacecraft will remain in this orbit for the remainder of its primary mission.
      “Parker Solar Probe is braving one of the most extreme environments in space and exceeding all expectations,” said Nour Rawafi, the project scientist for Parker Solar Probe at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), which designed, built, and operates the spacecraft from its campus in Laurel, Maryland. “This mission is ushering a new golden era of space exploration, bringing us closer than ever to unlocking the Sun’s deepest and most enduring mysteries.”
      Close to the Sun, the spacecraft relies on a carbon foam shield to protect it from the extreme heat in the upper solar atmosphere called the corona, which can exceed 1 million degrees Fahrenheit. The shield was designed to reach temperatures of 2,600 degrees Fahrenheit — hot enough to melt steel — while keeping the instruments behind it shaded at a comfortable room temperature. In the hot but low-density corona, the spacecraft’s shield is expected to warm to 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit.
      The spacecraft’s record close distance of 3.8 million miles may sound far, but on cosmic scales it’s incredibly close. If the solar system was scaled down with the distance between the Sun and Earth the length of a football field, Parker Solar Probe would be just four yards from the end zone — close enough to pass within the tenuous outer atmosphere of the Sun known as the corona. NASA/APL “It’s monumental to be able to get a spacecraft this close to the Sun,” said John Wirzburger, the Parker Solar Probe mission systems engineer at APL. “This is a challenge the space science community has wanted to tackle since 1958 and had spent decades advancing the technology to make it possible.”
      By flying through the solar corona, Parker Solar Probe can take measurements that help scientists better understand how the region gets so hot, trace the origin of the solar wind (a constant flow of material escaping the Sun), and discover how energetic particles are accelerated to half the speed of light.
      “The data is so important for the science community because it gives us another vantage point,” said Kelly Korreck, a program scientist at NASA Headquarters and heliophysicist who worked on one of the mission’s instruments. “By getting firsthand accounts of what’s happening in the solar atmosphere, Parker Solar Probe has revolutionized our understanding of the Sun.”
      Previous passes have already aided scientists’ understanding of the Sun. When the spacecraft first passed into the solar atmosphere in 2021, it found the outer boundary of the corona is wrinkled with spikes and valleys, contrary to what was expected. Parker Solar Probe also pinpointed the origin of important zig-zag-shaped structures in the solar wind, called switchbacks, at the visible surface of the Sun — the photosphere.
      Since that initial pass into the Sun, the spacecraft has been spending more time in the corona, where most of the critical physical processes occur.
      This conceptual image shows Parker Solar Probe about to enter the solar corona. NASA/Johns Hopkins APL/Ben Smith “We now understand the solar wind and its acceleration away from the Sun,” said Adam Szabo, the Parker Solar Probe mission scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “This close approach will give us more data to understand how it’s accelerated closer in.”
      Parker Solar Probe has also made discoveries across the inner solar system. Observations showed how giant solar explosions called coronal mass ejections vacuum up dust as they sweep across the solar system, and other observations revealed unexpected findings about solar energetic particles. Flybys of Venus have documented the planet’s natural radio emissions from its atmosphere, as well as the first complete image of its orbital dust ring.
      So far, the spacecraft has only transmitted that it’s safe, but soon it will be in a location that will allow it to downlink the data it collected on this latest solar pass.
      The data that will come down from the spacecraft will be fresh information about a place that we, as humanity, have never been.
      Joe Westlake
      Heliophysics Division Director, NASA Headquarters
      “The data that will come down from the spacecraft will be fresh information about a place that we, as humanity, have never been,” said Joe Westlake, the director of the Heliophysics Division at NASA Headquarters. “It’s an amazing accomplishment.”
      The spacecraft’s next planned close solar passes come on March 22, 2025, and June 19, 2025.
      By Mara Johnson-Groh
      NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
      Media Contact: Sarah Frazier
      Share








      Details
      Last Updated Dec 27, 2024 Editor Abbey Interrante Related Terms
      Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Heliophysics Division Parker Solar Probe (PSP) Science & Research Science Mission Directorate Solar Flares Solar Wind Space Weather The Sun The Sun & Solar Physics Explore More
      1 min read NASA’s Parker Solar Probe Touches The Sun For The First Time


      Article


      3 years ago
      4 min read Final Venus Flyby for NASA’s Parker Solar Probe Queues Closest Sun Pass


      Article


      2 months ago
      6 min read 10 Things to Know About Parker Solar Probe
      On Aug. 12, 2018, NASA launched Parker Solar Probe to the Sun, where it will…


      Article


      6 years ago
      Keep Exploring Discover More Topics From NASA
      Missions



      Humans in Space



      Climate Change



      Solar System


      View the full article
    • By NASA
      NASA 2025: To the Moon, Mars, and Beyond
    • By USH
      On December 25, 2024, NASA's Stereo Lasco C3 satellite captured an extraordinary phenomenon near the sun. In a split second, the satellite's imaging was disrupted by what appeared to be a swarm of spherical objects hurtling through space at incredible speeds. 

      Speculation surrounds the event, with some suggesting it could be a meteor debris field. However, the unusual appearance of the objects has raised questions. Could debris naturally form into such perfectly round shapes, each featuring a dark center that resembles donut-shaped UFOs? 

      This event might be a natural occurrence, however, with all the recent strange sightings of unknown drones, UFOs, and orbs combined with predictions from several specialists that something significant might happen soon in the realm of the UFO phenomena, one might wonder if these mysterious spheres are connected to something larger on the horizon?


      View the full article
    • By NASA
      The NESC Mechanical Systems TDT provides broad support across NASA’s mission directorates. We are a diverse group representing a variety of sub-disciplines including bearings, gears, metrology, lubrication and tribology, mechanism design, analysis and testing, fastening systems, valve engineering, actuator engineering, pyrotechnics, mechatronics, and motor controls. In addition to providing technical support, the
      TDT owns and maintains NASA-STD-5017, “Design and Development Requirements for Space Mechanisms.”

      Mentoring the Next Generation
      The NESC Mechanical Systems TDT actively participates in the Structures, Loads & Dynamics, Materials, and Mechanical Systems (SLAMS) Early Career Forum that mentors early-career engineers. The TDT sent three members to this year’s forum at WSTF, where early-career engineers networked with peers and NESC mentors, gave presentations on tasks they worked on at their home centers, and attended splinter sessions where they collaborated with mentors.

      New NASA Valve Standard to Reduce Risk and Improve Design and Reliability
      Valve issues have been encountered across NASA’s programs and continue to compromise mission performance and increase risk, in many cases because the valve hardware was not qualified in the environment as specified in NASA-STD-5017. To help address these issues, the Mechanical Systems TDT is developing a NASA standard for valves. The TDT assembled a team of subject matter experts from across the Agency representing several disciplines including mechanisms, propulsion, environmental control and life support systems, spacesuits, active thermal control systems, and materials and processes. The team has started their effort by reviewing lessons learned and best practices for valve design and hope to have a draft standard ready by the end of 2025.

      Bearing Life Testing for Reaction Wheel Assemblies
      The Mechanical Systems TDT just concluded a multiyear bearing life test on 40 motors, each containing a pair of all steel bearings of two different conformities or a pair of hybrid bearings containing silicon nitride balls. The testing confirmed that hybrid bearings outperformed their steel counterparts, and bearings with higher conformity (54%) outperformed bearings with lower conformity (52%). The team is disassembling and inspecting the bearings, and initial results have been surprising. The TDT was able to “recover” some of the bearings that failed during the life test and get them running as well as they did when testing began. Some bearings survived over five billion revolutions and appeared like new when they were disassembled and inspected. These results will be published once analysis is complete.
       
      X-57 Design Assessment
       The Mechanical Systems TDT was asked by the Aeronautics Mission Directorate to assess the design of the electric cruise motors installed on X-57. The team responded quickly to meet the Project’s schedule, making an onsite visit and attending numerous technical interchange meetings. After careful review of the design, the TDT identified areas for higher-level consideration and risk assessment and attended follow-on reviews to provide additional comments and advice.
      CLARREO Pathfinder Inner Radial Bearing Anomaly
      The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder was designed to take highly accurate measurements of reflected solar radiation to better-understand Earth’s climate. During payload functional testing, engineers detected a noise as the HySICS pointing system was rotated from its normal storage orientation. Mechanical Systems TDT members reviewed the design and inspection reports after disassembly of the inner bearing unit, noticing contact marks on the bore of the inner ring and the shaft that confirmed that the inner ring of the bearing was moving on the shaft with respect to the outer ring. Lubricant applied to this interface resolved the noise problem and allowed the project to maintain schedule without any additional costs.
      JPL Wheel Drive Actuator Extended Life Test Independent Review Team
      A consequence of changes to its mission on Mars will require the Perseverance Rover to travel farther than originally planned. Designed to drive 20 km, the rover will now need to drive ~91 km to rendezvous and support Mars sample tube transfer to the Sample Retrieval Lander. The wheel drive actuators with integral brakes had only been life tested to 40 km, so a review was scheduled to discuss an extended life test. The OCE Science Mission Directorate Chief Engineer assembled an independent review team (IRT) that included NESC Mechanical Systems TDT members. This IRT issued findings and guidance that questioned details of the JPL assumptions and plan. Several important recommendations were made that improved the life test plan and led to the identification of brake software issues that were reducing brake life. The life test has achieved 40 km of its 137 km goal and is ongoing. In addition, software updates were sent to the rover to improve brake life.

      Orion Crew Module Hydrazine Valve
      When an Orion crew module hydrazine valve failed to close, the production team asked the Mechanical Systems TDT for help. A TDT member attended two meetings and then visited the valve manufacturer, where it was determined this valve was a scaled-down version of the 12-inch SLS prevalve that was the subject of a previous NESC assessment and shared similar issues. The Orion Program requested NESC materials and mechanical systems support. The Mechanical Systems TDT member then worked closely with a Lockheed Martin (LM) Fellow for Mechanisms to review all the valve vendor’s detailed drawings and assembly procedures and document any issues. A follow-on meeting was held to brief both the LM and NASA Technical Fellows for Propulsion that a redesign and requalification was recommended. These recommendations have now been elevated to the LM Vice President for Mission Success and the LM Chief Engineer for Orion.
      NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover selfie taken in July 2024.
      View the full article
    • By NASA
      NASA has a strong need for advanced materials and processes (M&P) across the realms of robotic- and crewed-spaceflight, as well as aeronautics, particularly when one acknowledges that all craft must be made of something. To meet that need, the materials discipline relies on collaboration—both between centers and across disciplines. Reaching the Agency’s Moon-to-Mars objectives will require leveraging each center’s specific M&P expertise, cross-training among the centers, and routinely interacting with the 20-plus Agency disciplines like structures, space environments, and loads and dynamics. When a discipline touches all classes of materials; all aspects of design, manufacturing, testing, and operations; and all phases of flight, collaboration is the only way to broaden and deepen its reach.

      This year, the Materials TDT pulled in wide-ranging center and discipline support for the VIPER lunar rover, investigations of cracks in the ISS Russian PrK, the X-59 supersonic aircraft, and the SLS Program. It also leveraged its contamination control experience to aid the Commercial Crew and Orion Programs. Below are some additional highlights from the year.

      Collaboration Among Disciplines
      Ms. Alison Park, NASA Deputy Technical Fellow for Materials, led a multi-disciplinary NESC team to address JPL’s request for sup – port to investigate anomalous temperature readings during thermal vacuum testing of the NASA Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) Synthetic Aperture Rader (NISAR) reflect-array hardware, already integrated onto the spacecraft in India. The team provided detailed reviews of the thermal models and supported materials testing and characterization of the reflect-array construction record. The team’s work identified operability concerns from higher than expected temperatures that would be seen during the multi-day deployment process. The hardware was demated from the space – craft and returned to the United States for design upgrades and modifications to address the new concerns. The hardware is now set to return to India for reintegration and final launch preparations.

      Fostering Intercenter Cooperation
      Mr. Robert Carter, NASA Deputy Technical Fellow for Materials and GRC Deputy Division Chief, attended a technical exchange between GRC and MSFC. The exchange uncovered the need for an Agency-wide, materials-driven alloy development plan to identify key needs that would benefit spaceflight and aeronautics. From there, materials representatives from 7 of the 10 centers met in-person to develop a roadmap and a plan to be released in FY25. The Materials TDT also stood up an Alloy Development Community of Practice to provide a grassroots mechanism to identify cross-Agency needs, technical challenges, and benefits that aren’t identified programmatically or within mission directorates.
      Illustration depicting the NISAR satellite in orbit over central and Northern California. The satellite features an advanced radar system to globally monitor changes to Earth’s land and ice surfaces to deepen scientists’ understanding of natural hazards, land use, climate change, and other global processes. In June 2023, NISAR’s radar instrument payload and spacecraft bus were combined in an ISRO clean room facility in Bengaluru, India. Image credit: VDOS-URSC Leveraging NASA Partnerships
      The NASA Technical Fellow for Materials, Dr. Bryan W. McEnerney, hosted visitors from the European Space Agency (ESA) for a combined trip to JPL, GRC, and KSC, as well as the jointly organized Worldwide Advanced Manufacturing Symposium (WAMS) in Orlando, FL. In-depth technical interchanges between NASA and ESA emphasized advanced manufacturing with a focus on spaceflight needs. The event increased technical collaboration be – tween the two organizations, leading to ESA’s request to NASA for a formal review of ESA’s stress corrosion standard. Work was also initiated on a joint NASA/ESA intern program. Next year brings a number of new and exciting challenges, including an elevated temperature testing program focused on HallPetch effects in C-103 (niobium alloy), the domestic North American WAMS symposium in Knoxville, TN, and a continued focus on intercenter technical support. And, always a key objective, the discipline will actively engage early-career personnel on NESC assessments to learn from our veteran materials experts and to pass on the knowledge so unique to the space industry.

      Alloy Development community of practice participants. Robert Carter is at center.View the full article
  • Check out these Videos

×
×
  • Create New...