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By NASA
4 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
Coastal locations, such as Drakes Bay on the Point Reyes peninsula in Northern California, are increasingly vulnerable to sea level rise.NOAA/NMFS/WCR/CCO The information will help people who live in coastal areas prepare for impacts caused by rising sea levels.
Earth’s ocean is rising, disrupting livelihoods and infrastructure in coastal communities around the world. Agencies and organizations are working to prepare people as their world changes around them, and NASA information is helping these efforts.
The agency’s global data is now available in the sea level section of the Earth Information Center. NASA developed the global sea level change website in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Defense, the World Bank, the U.S. Department of State, and the United Nations Development Programme.
The site includes information on projected sea level rise through the year 2150 for coastlines around the world, as well as estimates of how much flooding a coastal community or region can expect to see in the next 30 years. The projections come from data collected by NASA and its partners and from computer models of ice sheets and the ocean, as well as the latest sea level assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and other sources.
“NASA innovates for the benefit of humanity. Our cutting-edge instruments and data-driven information tools help communities and organizations respond to natural hazards and extreme weather, and inform critical coastal infrastructure planning decisions,” said Karen St. Germain, director of the Earth science division at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
Information to Action
International organizations such as the World Bank will use the data from the global sea level change site for tasks including the creation of Climate Risk Profiles for countries especially vulnerable to sea level rise.
The Defense Department will continue to incorporate sea level rise data into its plans to anticipate and respond to hazards posed to its facilities by the effects of rising oceans. Similarly, the State Department uses the information for activities ranging from disaster preparedness to long-term adaptation planning to supporting partners around the world in related efforts.
“We are at a moment of truth in our fight against the climate crisis. The science is unequivocal and must serve as the bedrock upon which decision-making is built. With many communities around the world already facing severe impacts from sea-level rise, this new resource provides a vital tool to help them protect lives and livelihoods. It also illustrates what is at stake between a 1.5-degree-Celsius world and a current-policies trajectory for all coastal communities worldwide,” said Assistant Secretary-General Selwin Hart, special adviser to the United Nations secretary-general on climate action and just transition.
Rising Faster
NASA-led data analyses have revealed that between 1970 and 2023, 96% of countries with coastlines have experienced sea level rise. The rate of that global rise has also accelerated, more than doubling from 0.08 inches (0.21 centimeters) per year in 1993 to about 0.18 inches (0.45 centimeters) per year in 2023.
As the rate of sea level rise increases, millions of people could face the related effects sooner than previously projected, including larger storm surges, more saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and additional high-tide flood days — also known as nuisance floods or sunny day floods.
“This new platform shows the timing of future floods and the magnitude of rising waters in all coastal countries worldwide, connecting science and physics to impacts on people’s livelihoods and safety,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director of the ocean physics program at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
Data released earlier this year found that Pacific Island nations will experience at least 6 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise in the next 30 years. The number of high-tide flood days will increase by an order of magnitude for nearly all Pacific Island nations by the 2050s.
“The data is clear: Sea levels are rising around the world, and they’re rising faster and faster,” said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and head of the agency’s sea level change science team. “Having the best information to make decisions about how to plan for rising seas is more crucial than ever.”
To explore the global sea level change site:
https://earth.gov/sealevel
News Media Contacts
Karen Fox / Elizabeth Vlock
NASA Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1600
karen.c.fox@nasa.gov / elizabeth.a.vlock@nasa.gov
Jane J. Lee / Andrew Wang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-0307 / 626-379-6874
jane.j.lee@jpl.nasa.gov / andrew.wang@jpl.nasa.gov
2024-158
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Last Updated Nov 13, 2024 Related Terms
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By European Space Agency
Image: This image captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission reveals the impact of severe flooding following heavy rain that hit Australia’s Northern Territory in March 2024. View the full article
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By NASA
5 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
Pacific Island nations such as Kiribati — a low-lying country in the southern Pacific Ocean — are preparing now for a future of higher sea levels.NASA Earth Observatory Climate change is rapidly reshaping a region of the world that’s home to millions of people.
In the next 30 years, Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 8 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise, according to an analysis by NASA’s sea level change science team. This amount of rise will occur regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions change in the coming years.
The sea level change team undertook the analysis of this region at the request of several Pacific Island nations, including Tuvalu and Kiribati, and in close coordination with the U.S. Department of State.
In addition to the overall analysis, the agency’s sea level team produced high-resolution maps showing which areas of different Pacific Island nations will be vulnerable to high-tide flooding — otherwise known as nuisance flooding or sunny day flooding — by the 2050s. Released on Sept. 23, the maps outline flooding potential in a range of emissions scenarios, from best-case to business-as-usual to worst-case.
“Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs ocean physics programs for NASA’s Earth Science Division. “NASA’s new flood tool tells you what the potential increase in flooding frequency and severity look like in the next decades for the coastal communities of the Pacific Island nations.”
Team members, led by researchers at the University of Hawaii and in collaboration with scientists at the University of Colorado and Virginia Tech, started with flood maps of Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji, Nauru, and Niue. They plan to build high-resolution maps for other Pacific Island nations in the near future. The maps can assist Pacific Island nations in deciding where to focus mitigation efforts.
“Science and data can help the community of Tuvalu in relaying accurate sea level rise projections,” said Grace Malie, a youth leader from Tuvalu who is involved with the Rising Nations Initiative, a United Nations-supported program led by Pacific Island nations to help preserve their statehood and protect the rights and heritage of populations affected by climate change. “This will also help with early warning systems, which is something that our country is focusing on at the moment.”
Future Flooding
The analysis by the sea level change team also found that the number of high-tide flooding days in an average year will increase by an order of magnitude for nearly all Pacific Island nations by the 2050s. Portions of the NASA team’s analysis were included in a sea level rise report published by the United Nations in August 2024.
Areas of Tuvalu that currently see less than five high-tide flood days a year could average 25 flood days annually by the 2050s. Regions of Kiribati that see fewer than five flood days a year today will experience an average of 65 flood days annually by the 2050s.
“I am living the reality of climate change,” said Malie. “Everyone (in Tuvalu) lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this.”
Flooding on island nations can come from the ocean inundating land during storms or during exceptionally high tides, called king tides. But it can also result when saltwater intrudes into underground areas and pushes the water table to the surface. “There are points on the island where we will see seawater bubbling from beneath the surface and heavily flooding the area,” Malie added.
Matter of Location
Sea level rise doesn’t occur uniformly around the world. A combination of global and local conditions, such as the topography of a coastline and how glacial meltwater is distributed in the ocean, affects the amount of rise a particular region will experience.
“We’re always focused on the differences in sea level rise from one region to another, but in the Pacific, the numbers are surprisingly consistent,” said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and the agency’s sea level change science team lead.
The impacts of 8 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise will vary from country to country. For instance, some nations could experience nuisance flooding several times a year at their airport, while others might face frequent neighborhood flooding equivalent to being inundated for nearly half the year.
Researchers would like to combine satellite data on ocean levels with ground-based measurements of sea levels at specific points, as well as with better land elevation information. “But there’s a real lack of on-the-ground data in these countries,” said Hamlington. The combination of space-based and ground-based measurements can yield more precise sea level rise projections and improved understanding of the impacts to countries in the Pacific.
“The future of the young people of Tuvalu is already at stake,” said Malie. “Climate change is more than an environmental crisis. It is about justice, survival for nations like Tuvalu, and global responsibility.”
To explore the high-tide flooding maps for Pacific Island nations, go to:
https://sealevel.nasa.gov
News Media Contacts
Jane J. Lee / Andrew Wang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-0307 / 626-379-6874
jane.j.lee@jpl.nasa.gov / andrew.wang@jpl.nasa.gov
2024-128
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Last Updated Sep 25, 2024 Related Terms
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By NASA
4 min read
Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)
This image, taken from a data visualization, shows Arctic sea ice minimum extent on September 11, 2024. The yellow boundary shows the minimum extent averaged over the 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Download high-resolution video and images from NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio: https://svsdev.gsfc.nasa.gov/5382NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio/Trent L. Schindler Arctic sea ice retreated to near-historic lows in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, likely melting to its minimum extent for the year on Sept.11, 2024, according to researchers at NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The decline continues the decades-long trend of shrinking and thinning ice cover in the Arctic Ocean.
The amount of frozen seawater in the Arctic fluctuates during the year as the ice thaws and regrows between seasons. Scientists chart these swings to construct a picture of how the Arctic responds over time to rising air and sea temperatures and longer melting seasons. Over the past 46 years, satellites have observed persistent trends of more melting in the summer and less ice formation in winter.
This summer, Arctic sea ice decreased to a its minimum extent on September 11, 2024. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center this is the 7th lowest in the satellite record). The decline continues the long-term trend of shrinking ice cover in the Arctic Ocean.
Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center Tracking sea ice changes in real time has revealed wide-ranging impacts, from losses and changes in polar wildlife habitat to impacts on local communities in the Arctic and international trade routes.
This year, Arctic sea ice shrank to a minimal extent of 1.65 million square miles (4.28 million square kilometers). That’s about 750,000 square miles (1.94 million square kilometers) below the 1981 to 2010 end-of-summer average of 2.4 million square miles (6.22 million square kilometers). The difference in ice cover spans an area larger than the state of Alaska. Sea ice extent is defined as the total area of the ocean with at least 15% ice concentration.
Seventh-Lowest in Satellite Record
This year’s minimum remained above the all-time low of 1.31 million square miles (3.39 million square kilometers) set in September 2012. While sea ice coverage can fluctuate from year to year, it has trended downward since the start of the satellite record for ice in the late 1970s. Since then, the loss of sea ice has been about 30,000 square miles (77,800 square kilometers) per year, according to NSIDC.
Scientists currently measure sea ice extent using data from passive microwave sensors aboard satellites in the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, with additional historical data from the Nimbus-7 satellite, jointly operated by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Today, the overwhelming majority of ice in the Arctic Ocean is thinner, first-year ice, which is less able to survive the warmer months. There is far, far less ice that is three years or older now,
Nathan Kurtz
Chief, NASA's Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory
Sea ice is not only shrinking, it’s getting younger, noted Nathan Kurtz, lab chief of NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory at the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
“Today, the overwhelming majority of ice in the Arctic Ocean is thinner, first-year ice, which is less able to survive the warmer months. There is far, far less ice that is three years or older now,” Kurtz said.
Ice thickness measurements collected with spaceborne altimeters, including NASA’s ICESat and ICESat-2 satellites, have found that much of the oldest, thickest ice has already been lost. New research out of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California shows that in the central Arctic, away from the coasts, fall sea ice now hovers around 4.2 feet (1.3 meters) thick, down from a peak of 8.8 feet (2.7 meters) in 1980.
Another Meager Winter Around Antarctica
Sea ice in the southern polar regions of the planet was also low in 2024. Around Antarctica, scientists are tracking near record-low sea ice at a time when it should have been growing extensively during the Southern Hemisphere’s darkest and coldest months.
Ice around the continent is on track to be just over 6.6 million square miles (16.96 million square kilometers). The average maximum extent between 1981 and 2010 was 7.22 million square miles (18.71 million square kilometers).
The meager growth so far in 2024 prolongs a recent downward trend. Prior to 2014, sea ice in the Antarctic was increasing slightly by about 1% per decade. Following a spike in 2014, ice growth has fallen dramatically. Scientists are working to understand the cause of this reversal. The recurring loss hints at a long-term shift in conditions in the Southern Ocean, likely resulting from global climate change.
“While changes in sea ice have been dramatic in the Arctic over several decades, Antarctic sea ice was relatively stable. But that has changed,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NSIDC. “It appears that global warming has come to the Southern Ocean.”
In both the Arctic and Antarctic, ice loss compounds ice loss. This is due to the fact that while bright sea ice reflects most of the Sun’s energy back to space, open ocean water absorbs 90% of it. With more of the ocean exposed to sunlight, water temperatures rise, further delaying sea ice growth. This cycle of reinforced warming is called ice-albedo feedback.
Overall, the loss of sea ice increases heat in the Arctic, where temperatures have risen about four times the global average, Kurtz said.
About the Author
Sally Younger
Senior Science Writer
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